How 1984 tainted Kamal Nath will help Congress in Punjab
The day reports surfaced that the Centre-appointed special investigations team to re-examine 1984 riots was likely to recommend reopening of around 75 cases - the Congress revamped its party setup and appointed Kamal Nath as general secretary and put him in charge of shepherding the party unit in Punjab.
Reaction to the decision within the Congress ranged from a diplomatic "okay, that’s fine" response from Captain Amarinder Singh, to a few district leaders from the other faction, saying that the party had once again hurt sentiments of Sikhs. They asked the high command to reconsider Kamal Nath’s appointment.
The other two players in the fray, Akali Dal and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) flayed the choice, saying the Congress had rewarded the leader "involved" in the 1984 riots with a "plum post".
Kamal Nath’s involvement in the little probed Gurudwara Rakabganj case is by now well-known and his complicity in the incident is well established in the public eye. It has also been detailed in a book by journalist Sanjay Suri.
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| The anti-Sikh pogrom in Delhi and other parts of the country does not evoke the kind of anger in Punjab as it does in Delhi. |
His appointment despite this, is a bold gamble – however, politically incorrect it may be – on part of the Congress party to harness the Hindu vote in the state.
Hindus in Punjab account for almost 38 per cent of the population – mainly centred around urban areas - while the Sikhs are pegged at around 58 per cent.
The party knows that despite insurgency having ended more than a decade-and-a-half ago, a concealed Hindu-Sikh divide persists in the state, and this has only flared with religion becoming a factor again in politics last year through a series of incidents.
The controversy surrounding Udta Punjab is also mired in this framework because the problem of drug usage and its impact is predominantly a rural and semi-urban phenomenon.
The Congress hopes to leverage this with Kamal Nath’s appointment. The Congress calculation would be that the BJP will not be able to play its Hindu card because of its alliance with the Akalis. The party’s thinking is possibly that the Captain as its showpiece, Kamal Nath shoring up the organisation, the Hindu vote and Prashant Kishor as campaign strategist, is a winning formula.
Even in the worst of times, the Congress retained a significant vote share – an example of this being in the elections held for the Punjab Assembly elections in September 1985. Despite multiple tragedies of 1984 and the assassination of Sant Harchand Singh Longowal on the eve of the polls, the Congress vote share at 37.9 per cent almost matched that of the Akali Dal.
More than a decade later for the 1997 Assembly polls, the Congress, according to a CSDS study, polled 21.4 per cent of the Sikh vote, while the Akali Dal got 50 per cent.
In 2002, the Congress share of Sikh vote rose further to 27.4 per cent while the Akali share dipped to 40.7 per cent. Kamal Nath’s arrival is the strongest signal to Hindus that they have been not been abandoned by the party. It may be recalled that Manish Tewari’s father, Dr DN Tewari, a member of Rajya Sabha, was shot dead in April 1984 by terrorists in Chandigarh.
The AAP entered Punjab’s electoral battlefield in 2014 with spectacular results mainly by leveraging growing disenchantment with the SAD-BJP combine and promising a new polity. In Assembly elections, however, local issues come to the fore and faces projected by it become important.
AAP’s HS Phoolka with his "crusader for justice" image has harshly criticised the Congress over Kamal Nath’s appointment. The AAP risks losing the script by focusing heavily on SIT’s likely proposal, and accusing BJP of not being serious enough about delivering justice has a limited appeal among Sikhs in Delhi.
It is one of the paradoxes of Indian politics that the tragic events of 1984 mean differently for Sikhs in Punjab and outside.
The anti-Sikh pogrom in Delhi and other parts of the country does not evoke the kind of anger in Punjab as it does in Delhi. As a result, Sikh politics in Punjab is impacted by a different set of issues.
The special investigations team's likely recommendation to re-examine 1984 riots cases is unlikely to be a major issue in Punjab. The response to the SIT’s recommendations will be different in Delhi when compared to Punjab.
Similarly, Kamal Nath may not be as much a "hate-figure" in the state as he may be among Sikhs in Delhi. By appointing him, the Congress high command has taken a shot at resolving several internal issues. It remains to be seen if the plan comes unstuck or is a success.