It's Mamata, not Nitish Kumar, Modi might have to worry about
Mamata Banerjee has shades of Narendra Modi in her. Besides the obvious commonalities of personality traits, she is every bit an underdog.
Ever since she metamorphosed from angry rebel to potential alternative to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in 2006 with her protracted sit-in at the Tata Motor site in Singur, Banerjee created her own idiom and directly communicated with the masses. No necessity for the national or regional media. Quite like Modi.
The only difference being her complete indifference towards it and not like Modi's pangs-laced attitude towards the media. Why his Bhakts even tweaked an existing acronym for it: MSM became mainstream "sikular" media!
But all media and large sections of the intelligentsia were buoyant as the campaign in West Bengal progressed. Sting operations, collapsed bridge and the electoral arithmetic suggested that things had changed from what was anticipated before the polls were called. At that point Mamata Banerjee was expected to romp home. Not anymore and many began saying that the elections were too close to call.
 |
| Mamata Banerjee has shades of Narendra Modi in her. |
But if exit polls - unanimous in their verdict that the chief minister is bucking the trend of the incumbent being voted out - are correct, Trinamool Congress would have shut the door once more on the chances of the Left's revival in the state. The result will also ensure that the Congress remains at best a peripheral force in the state.
In the event of pollsters being correct this time, not only would Mamata Banerjee stamp her authority in the state, she will also become one of the most powerful chief ministers in the country. West Bengal, after all, sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha and is the fourth most populous states in the country.
In any case, TMC has a significant presence in Parliament which neither ruling party nor Opposition can ignore - 34 in Lok Sabha and 12 in Rajya Sabha, making the party a major deciding force for the presidential and vice presidential elections in 2017.
For the past two years since Modi was elected, this impending poll weighed in her mind and Mamata Banerjee did not encash her status as one of the leading power brokers. If she indeed gets the mandate that exit polls are giving her, she will rid herself of insecurity and take a step towards carving a niche at the national level.
The timing is perfect because despite still having the highest ratings among political leaders, Modi's sheen is rubbing off a wee bit and with chances of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh - due for election in the first quarter of 2017 - at best being wobbly, the political landscape is opening up for another reconfiguration. And, Mamata Banerjee - if the verdict is as suggested by exit polls - will take the pole position.
In two years the political spectrum has witnessed the emergence of satraps like Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal as political pivots around which anti-BJP parties can gather.
Normally, one would have expected the Congress, by virtue of having a more "national" footprint than regional parties to rise and claim this position. But because the Congress has failed to resolve its leadership crisis and alongside taking care of organisational matters besides of course putting the finger on the main elements of the political plank on which it will seek to stage a comeback, the field has been open. This prompted Nitish Kumar to throw his hat into the ring.
With Mamata's victory beig suggested as massive, the Bihar chief minister's chances - already under question - gets further diminished as the West Bengal leader will undoubtedly wish to take up a national role. Who doesn't have political ambition?
Though 61 and still seen as a youthful leader, Mamata Banerjee, however, knows that if she has to play a bigger role at the Centre, the next two years will be most decisive. In this period, she has to ensure effective governance and ensure that she carves a legacy like the way Jyoti Basu did with Operation Barga - the most successful land reforms programme in India.
But governance apart, Mamata Banerjee has to adopt a clear political position. In the past two years, TMC has sent out mixed signals - she opposed the Land Acquisition Bill but is not on the same page with the Congress on GST. She fulminates against BJP and its "communal politics" but is privately seen by the Centre as a potential ally in Parliament to ensure passage of key legislations in the Upper House.
The years that she campaigned against the Left and broke away from the Congress had made her BJP's "natural ally" in the late 1990s and she was part of the Vajpayee government as railway minister where her principal contribution was addition of a new class of trains - Duronto.
A victory will establish that her base among Muslims voters - one of the largest in the country - has not dented because of her policy of occasional equidistance between BJP and Opposition. But to expect this group to remain loyal during an electoral charge dominated by BJP would be a tall order.
This leaves Mamata Banerjee with little option besides taking an active step towards the Centre as one of the primary leaders of an anti-BJP alliance. Such a move, however, would be dependent on exit polls translating into reality and the extent of power consolidation she is able to secure through this verdict.