Why does Modi say the right thing, but too late?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s no “chest-thumping” message to BJP leaders on the surgical strikes is at once a careful and cunning strategy.
He seems to have mastered an archetypal one-step forward, two steps backs strategy to wriggle out of a situation whenever he finds himself being pushed on the backfoot.
His response to the developing situations that embarrass the government or raise uncomfortable questions often comes late. More often than not the damage gets done by the time Modi reacts.
This is what happened following the Indian Army’s announcement of surgical strikes across the LoC to hit terror launchpads in PoK in the early hours of September 29.
Having won the support of parties across the political spectrum and the people at large, within a few days the BJP frittered away the moral advantage that had accrued to the government.
The advantage accrued because the government very shrewdly and, rightly, put the Army at the centrestage. Politics took a back seat; Modi took a back seat as the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) Lt-Gen Ranbir Singh was chosen to break the news. The limelight was on the DGMO, the Army and the Olive Green.
Unspoken political consensus was that the Army had avenged the Uri attack; and an unequivocal message had been delivered to Pakistan that enough was enough. Now don’t mess.
Even as Congress’s Rahul Gandhi grudgingly lauded Modi for displaying political will - "this is the first Prime Minister-like action in two years" - there was no unusual drum-beating by the BJP in the first few days after the strikes.
However, the BJP was the first to break the consensus. After the initial restraint, the party moved to make political capital out of the nation’s euphoria. Posters were put up in election-bound Uttar Pradesh depicting Modi as Lord Rama, Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif as Ravana and Arvind Kejriwal as Meghnada.
Ministers, especially Manohar Parrikar, in charge of defence, and other party leaders issued careless and jingoistic statements. BJP leaders went on an overdrive in a game of one-upmanship.
This was contrary to the government’s initial strategy. The BJP’s narrative had changed. And so did the Opposition narrative.
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| The government had very shrewdly and rightly put the Army at the centrestage after the surgical strikes. But is soon frittered away the gains. (Photo credit: India Today) |
In what appeared to be an an orchestrated move, Congress, AAP and JD (U) began asking the government to release video evidence to conclusively prove to Pakistan and the international audience the veracity of the surgical operations. Opposition parties looked determined to challenge the BJP’s narrative and call the BJP’s bluff.
But the discourse has hit rock bottom. Sanjay Nirupam, president of the Mumbai Regional Congress Committee, called the strikes fake and senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh said in a tweet: “India lies exposed all over the world.” Rahul touched a new low with his “khoon ki dalali” barb.
The political slugfest around the surgical strikes threatens to derail the government’s strategy. The situation on the LoC and the border is alive. The ceasefire is in tatters. Pakistan is pushing terrorists across the LoC to attack Army camps. Pakistan is still busy formulating its response to the surprising surgical strikes.
Most importantly, the government is worried about the internal security situation. There is a fear that the political slugfest and BJP’s jingoism would help Pakistan fish in troubles waters. Intelligence reports are warning about Pakistan working overtime to activate sleeper cells as well as create situations to trigger tensions in sensitive areas.
That’s the reason why Modi decided to step in to put his crafty strategy in place at the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. He instructed the ministers not to speak out of turn to contain the disjoined and unsubstantiated voices emanating from within the government. He asked the party leaders to stop chest-thumping.
His message sounds plausible in the context of surgical operations and tension on the LoC. But one can see a pattern in Modi’s advice of restraint. He appears to have cultivated a habit of waking up late. He has often been found shifting gear to damage control mode after the damage has been done.
In the past two-and-a-half years, on issues ranging from the lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq in Dadri, to the suicide of Hyderabad University PhD student Rohith Vemula to so-called gau rakshaks’ cow-vigilantism, Modi did speak but not before the damage had been done.
There is more to the Prime Minister’s no chest-thumping message than meets the eye. It’s more than a delayed response, more than an afterthought and calibrated damage-control strategy.
What’s more is that Modi wishes to retain an ace of spades to play it later. The videotapes on surgical strikes are his aces. He has moved to restrain the party leaders because he doesn’t want the ace to be spent before an opportune time. Acceding to the demand for making the strikes' evidence public would preempt the BJP’s strategy.
Modi doesn’t want the surgical strikes' tapes to be made public. By asking the party leaders to give up chest-thumping, he is sending a message to political adversaries to give up demand for proof.
The tapes can be made public but at the time of Modi’s choosing. During the UP or Punjab elections, for instance, when the chips are down, the BJP can hope to make capital out of it.
The opposition parties should know it. Modi’s well-considered advice to his party leaders is aimed at BJP leaders as well as the opposition parties.