Mullah Omar's death won't kill Taliban
Mullah Omar is dead. The US can look for fifty shades of meaning in this event. None are relevant to India. Indeed, from an Indian view, the American narrative that Omar's death increases the chances of a negotiated Afghanistan settlement is a matter of fantasy.
Normally, in a civil war, different sides fight for political power in order to redistribute economic resources in their favour. In the Taliban's case, the movement is based on religious fanaticism. Economic factors are important, because without control of resources no one can rule. Yet for the Taliban, religion is the primary motivation.
This means the Taliban is not looking to share power in Kabul. It is looking for supremacy in a theocratic state that mandates its version of religion as the only legitimate one. Negotiations could serve a tactical purpose: get the Taliban into the government, from where seizing power might be easier.
There is, however, no evidence that the Taliban has need of this option. Consider: before the US intervened in Afghanistan in 2001 for the most foolish of reasons, the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. The US crushed it. For four years the Taliban sat quietly, waiting for the US to leave. When the US gave no indication it would, the Taliban attacked; the more it attacked the more the US stakes rose, until the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) had 100,000 highly-trained soldiers and as much airpower as required. Meanwhile, the US rebuilt the Afghanistan National Army. No more than the Shias and Sunnis in Iraq could fight the US, could the Taliban fight the US.
The advantage of being a guerilla army at home, however, is that if necessary, it can simply lie quiet until it can strike again. In most cases, if faced with a strong opponent, guerillas get tired and a negotiated peace becomes attractive. Except the Taliban has nothing to negotiate. Despite 14 years of operation, the Taliban remains the second strongest military force in Afghanistan. And when the Afghan government forces collapse, the Taliban will be the strongest. It has no need to be a part of the government, when it is aiming to be the government itself. No one can stop it. America is bidding goodbye. The Taliban tide is rising again. The government of Afghanistan cannot defeat the Taliban. Ignore what the American government, which has utterly lost touch with reality, says. No professional American soldier, diplomat, or intelligence officer believes that Kabul can stand.
As such, complicated American analyses are irrelevant. There is no point in pondering the meaning of dissension over Omar's successor. Inevitably, one factional leader will win and he will have no need to negotiate with Kabul. Equally, there is no purpose in wondering what effect the arrival of the Islamic State (ISIS) will have. However that plays out, a democratic Afghanistan is the least feasible outcome.
Fortunately, India's foreign intelligence agency - the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) - which is responsible for our interests in Afghanistan, is under no illusions that the death of Omar has strategic meaning for us. The RAW understands that the slog in Afghanistan continues, and that because of geography and ethnography our role has to remain limited. We can only fight defensively to prevent Islamabad from having things entirely its own way. Meanwhile, the Americans, having messed up another war, will sleep soundly in their homes, dreaming of their next misadventure.