Only Amit Shah can ensure Modi remains boss of BJP
Amit Shah's re-election as BJP president is not as much a recognition of his organisational abilities as a sign that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's total domination on the party remains unchallenged. In effect this means that the banner of revolt that was raised in the aftermath of the electoral rout in Bihar by four party veterans - Lal Krishna Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and Shanta Kumar and also the potshots that other junior leaders like RK Singh and Shatrughan Sinha took, has come to a naught.
Shah's elevation also suggests that as of now, the Rashtriya Swamsevak Sangh (RSS) leadership continues to back Modi and his style of working.
In the aftermath of the massive setback in Bihar, there was considerable erosion in the value of Brand Modi and the prime minister's dominance within the party. The open letter released by veterans was the first occasion when Modi's leadership was challenged. Shah's re-election is a rearguard action on part of Modi to not just save his most valuable "weapon" but also an attempt to demonstrate complete control over the party apparatus.
This is of great importance to Modi because he needs to have complete say in deciding party candidates in the next Lok Sabha polls and this would not be possible if the president is not a pliable loyalist. Modi would also wish to have direct authority in deciding on the party's chief ministerial choice when elections are held next in Gujarat.
Similarly, a loyalist as president will enable him to prevent Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje from dictating the process of seat distribution in the state for the next assembly polls. State elections in these three BJP bastions are due in November-December 2017 and its verdict would set the tone for the parliamentary polls in 2019.
In the immediate aftermath of the defeat in Bihar it had been presented that Shah was on a sticky wicket because his "Diwali in Pakistan" statement along with that of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, who proposed a "need to review the reservation policy", were among the top factors contributing to the BJP's defeat.
But a closer reading of the situation made it amply clear that Modi would in no way allow Shah being denied a full term as president because this would tantamount to a virtual declaration of no-confidence in his leadership.
It needs to be remembered that Shah was famously declared as "man of the match" by Modi for the party's spectacular performance in Uttar Pradesh which singularly contributed to the completely unexpected and audacious tally of 282 secured by the BJP in the last Lok Sabha polls.
Thereafter, it was only a matter of time before Shah would be made president after Rajnath Singh vacated the seat as part of the BJP's one-man one-post policy. True that in May, as the Modi government's first anniversary was drawing to a close, Arun Shourie made a direct reference to the dominance of the Trimurti - Modi, Shah and Arun Jaitley. A similar criticism had been levelled by Shanta Kumar too.
The primary criticism against Shah has been that he had systematically destroyed the party's consultative process of decision-making, wrecked the spirit of collectivism and become completely inaccessible for party workers and state leaders. State leaders had been completely marginalised in the elections in Delhi and Bihar to such an extent that in the capital there were open allusions about the local unit taking little interest in campaigning.
But leaders who mouthed these critical comments had no illusions that these changes had been effected by Shah alone. Everyone in the higher echelons of the party is aware of Modi's personality and the fact that he brooks no power-sharing. Shah was merely a proxy president acting according to the mandate of his boss.
Because there was criticism on how the Modi-Shah duo ran the party and because there was an attempt to deny Shah a regular term, there is no denying that there has been some sort of behind-the-scene settlement brokered by the RSS leadership. The terms of this "understanding" will become evident once Shah takes charge this weekend and thereafter reconstitutes his team, a process that may take anything from a few days to several weeks to complete.
But a complete return of the BJP to its collective style of functioning does not appear to be a realistic probability. It needs to be kept in mind that no person, even someone with strong preferences like Modi, is past mending. He has always gone into boardrooms all fired up and there is no way that he would have entered the settlement chamber when the matter of Shah's term was taken up for consultations in any other manner.
Yet because the RSS still controls immense clout in the country through its affiliates and cadre who are required for every election, Modi will not risk alienating it by his government's policies. There will thereby be little ideological "straying" on Modi's part.
Besides a consistent pursuit of its social agenda, this may well mean that the much-promised economic reforms may never materialise and the government tries to ease the situation for itself by other means. But for this, cooperation of the Opposition is essential and Modi's demeanour will keep coming in the way of streamlining ties with the Congress.