Why Lalu should be afraid of Yadavs
For the first time ever, RJD chief Lalu Prasad seems to have doubts over his grip on the votes of his own caste members - the Yadavs. He publicly expressed his concern over the BJP's attempts to dent his core vote bank. He said, “I have learnt that Narendra Modi has given the state BJP the task of making five Yadav leaders contest as independents from every Assembly segment to split our votes. Modi has been also invoking Yaduvanshis. Beware of any such moves”.
After becoming Bihar's chief minister in March 1990, Lalu strung together a formidable Muslim-Yadav alliance, and till date, he has been able to retain his hold over this vote bank. When Modi was declared the BJP's prime ministeiral candidate, he tried to break this. The BJP was well aware that it can't effectively woo the Muslims because of its Hindutva inclination, but saw an opportunity to bring the Yadavs within its fold.
In April 2013, while campaigning in Nawada - an area that has a substantial Yadav population - Modi sought to reach out to the community. He said, “I come from Dwarka and have the blessings of Lord Krishna. I have a natural claim over the Yaduvanshis (Yadavs). I will take care of your interests. The Union government doesn’t want any kind of revolution but is only interested in Pink Revolution. Those backing the UPA government (a reference to the Yadav duo of Lalu and Mulayam) should consider whether they want to back a revolution in which they kill livestock or a government which cares for farmers and cattle grazers.”
His comments, while appearing to have been aimed at the Yadavs, were heavily laced with Hindutva undertones. So, he attempted to woo them through various means before the 2014 Lok sabha election. According to a CSDS post-poll survey in Bihar, 19 per cent of the Yadavs voted for the BJP in the general election. So, Modi succeeded in making a big dent in Lalu's armour.
Now, the Bihar Assembly election is a do-or-die battle for BJP national president Amit Shah. He is trying to consolidate the BJP's hold over the Yadavs of Bihar. What is the BJP doing to make their hold firmer on the Yadavs? Let's look at the various steps taken by the BJP:
One of the first steps the BJP took after its divorce with the JD(U) is to make Nand Kishore Yadav the leader of opposition in the Assembly. He is one of the oldest and loyal Yadav faces of the BJP. As a Cabinet minister of road construction in Nitish Kumar's government in Bihar, Nand Kishore Yadav has been credited with transforming the road network of the entire state. He has also served as BJP's state president.
Ram Kripal Yadav, who used to be one of the closest aides of Lalu had rebelled just before the Lok Sabha election and crossed over to the BJP. He defeated Lalu's daughter Misa Bharti from Pataliputra and was made a minister by Modi. Ram Kripal winning decisively, garnering a major share of votes in Yadav-dominated segments, was the first test that went in favour of the BJP. He is now aggressively working to bring the Yadavs towards the BJP.
The BJP appointed Rajya Sabha MP Bhupender Yadav as the party’s Bihar in-charge, and this is seen as another step towards eating into Lalu’s traditional voter base. Bihar BJP leader amnd former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi said, “Bhupendra Yadav’s organisational skills will benefit us. His surname is an additional gain.” One of his main tasks is to collect feedback on the supposed growing disenchantment among the Yadavs with the RJD.
In fact, when the BJP started its election campaign in Bihar by paying obeisance to the Yadav deity, Baba Bhuiya, at Hajipur, Bhupender Yadav was an integral part of the process. Yadav, accompanied by Ujiarpur MP Nityanand Rai and other NDA leaders offered 300kg of milk at the temple. Milk was donated by over 500 milkmen, almost all from the Yadav community. So, in a way, this was a function for the Yadavs, by the Yadavs and of the Yadavs.
On the other hand, expelled RJD MP Pappu Yadav has floated his own party, the Jan Adhikar Manch. He has declared the Nitish-Lalu combination his "enemy number one" and has started to court the BJP. Pappu has a strong following among the youth in the Seemanchal region and has potential to damage the prospects of the anti-BJP alliance. To keep him in good humour, the BJP has not only accorded him "Y" category security, but has also given him an appointment with Modi.
Lalu has also been promoting his family over his loyal Yadav colleagues. First, he had chosen his wife Rabri Devi as the chief minister. To promote his daughter, he let an experienced leader like Ram Kripal Yadav quit the RJD. The expelled RJD MP from Madhepura, Pappu Yadav, has openly challenged Lalu and said that he, and not Lalu's sons and daughter, was the successor of the RJD chief. Lalu had suspended party leader Jageshwar Rai, a strong contender for the Mahua Assembly constituency, to clear the way for his son Tej Pratap Yadav to contest from the Yadav-dominated constituency in the coming elections. This blatant promotion of his family by Lalu has been alienating the Yadavs. And the BJP is more than happy to use such an opportunity.
The dilemma, however, before the Yadav community is how to reconcile with Nitish, whom they had considered their political enemy number one till recently. Several Yadav leaders of the RJD say that they are unable to come to terms with the fact that the "secular" alliance will be led by Nitish. They feel that under him the Yadavs have had a difficult time over the past nine years.
The BJP has planned both at the macro and micro levels to dent Lalu's grip over the Yadavs. Lalu's unease suggests that it may be working to an extent. Considering that the BJP got 19 per cent of the Yadav vote in 2014 Lok Sabha election, the party may like to increase it substantially. But how successful would the BJP be? Only the outcome of the elections will tell.