Can Nitish do in Bihar what Kejriwal did in Delhi?
If one cannot question the personal integrity of Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar's rivals too cannot claim that he has made money from politics. While Kejriwal is the product of the anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, which shook the foundation of the Manmohan Singh government, the Bihar CM is the product of JP's "Sampoorna Kranti" movement, which established the first non-Congress government at the Centre. If Kejriwal came to power in Delhi by highlighting the corrupt practices of the then chief minister Sheila Dikshit, it was NDA’s campaign against Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi’s "jungle raj" which brought Nitish at the helm of Bihar’s power. Nitish holds a degree in electrical engineering from Bihar College of Engineering; Kejrwal is an IIT-Kharagpur alumnus - a mechanical engineer.
Both chief ministers have a similar history and their friendship is making waves in Indian politics. Nitish was recently felicitated by the AAP government in Delhi and Kejriwal is scheduled to visit Bihar on August 27 to participate in a function on "good governance" on the invitation of the Bihar government.
Both Nitish and Kejriwal are highly ambitious. Many believe that Kejriwal resigned in 2014 because his government was dependent on the support of the Congress and he was eyeing the country's top job. He contested against Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, from Varanasi in the Lok Sabha polls and his party contested 432 seats. Kejriwal lost miserably and AAP forfeited their deposit in 413 seats. In its citadel of Delhi, AAP lost all seven seats. Nitish too broke his 17-year-old alliance with the BJP in June 2013 against the elevation of Modi as the head of BJP’s election campaign committee. Many believe that Nitish too was nurturing the ambition to become PM. He thought that he could garner maximum seats in Bihar on his plank of "sushasan" and secularism, and even emerge as the third front’s PM candidate in the case of a hung Parliament. But the Modi wave shattered his dream and the NDA won 31 Lok Sabha seats out of 40 in Bihar while the RJD-Congress-NCP combine won seven and his JDU managed to bag only two.
After BJP got a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha elections, Modi got a jolt from Kejriwal’s AAP in Delhi. Kejriwal’s party grabbed a sensational 67 of the 70 seats, leaving just three seats for the over-confident BJP. The party’s chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi lost to a little known candidate of the AAP. Now Nitish is trying to repeat in Bihar what Kejrwial pulled off in Delhi. But why is it difficult for him to ape the AAP in Bihar?
One of the biggest factors that led the AAP to victory in Delhi was the perception created by his 49-day government in 2014. The general belief was that corruption in everyday life had ended during Kejriwal’s government. The Nitish government may have succeeded on issues like law and order, infrastructure, education and health, but public perception reflects that he failed to give Bihar a corruption-free government. To make matters worse, he has allied with Lalu, convicted in a corruption case and barred from contesting elections. For many, he is synonymous with corruption.
Kejriwal had repeatedly apologised to Delhi for quitting abruptly as chief minister of Delhi. So far, Nitish hasn’t apologised to the people of Bihar for his several mistakes - like breaking up a 17-year alliance with the BJP and tying up with Lalu. The Bihar CM apologised for making Jitan Ram Manjhi the chief minister, but never for his past political mistakes. He either thinks that none of his decisions were mistakes or that apology is beyond his dignity.
After its debacle in the Lok Sabha elections, AAP workers did the ground work for Kejriwal’s victory - a dedicated army of volunteers gave a massive social media push to the party, which changed the political landscape in Delhi. Nitish, on the other had, has a positive image and appeal across Bihar. But Nitish’s JDU lacks a dedicated cadre. From 1996 till 2013, he used the BJP’s cadre for electioneering. Now he will have to seek Lalu’s help.
Kejriwal’s AAP never had a pre-poll alliance with any political party. During his 49-day government, the AAP took "unconditional" and "outside" support from the Congress. In contrast, Nitish’s party never contested any election without an alliance, barring the last Lok Sabha elections. After parting ways with Lalu, he allied with CPI-ML and then with the BJP. While Kejriwal has a history of leading the solo and successful march, Nitish has failed in his lone independent endeavour in 2014.
The AAP was founded in November 26, 2012 and the party is barely three years old. Opponents may blame him for U-turns on several issues that were raised and promised by AAP. But, so far, he hasn’t been blamed for political opportunism, barring the one time he took Congress’ outside support. On the other hand, Nitish’s political life is full of such moments of political opportunism. He was Lalu's friend till 1993. For the next two decades, he was his enemy number one. Now they are friends again. Nitish is the product of an anti-Congress movement but has now aligned with them. Even after the Gujarat riots, the Bihar chief minister had publicly praised Modi. But when he was made BJP’s campaign committee chief, he broke his alliance with the NDA.
Can Nitish defy so many odds? Conventional wisdom suggests that he can’t achieve in Bihar what Kejriwal has done in Dehi. But the answer cannot be given with certainty. Indian politics is full of surprises. In case he beats the odds, the Bihar CM will emerge as one of the biggest challengers for Modi in 2019. If he fails, October 2015 will eclipse his political future.