Nitish Kumar will soon have to choose between Lalu, the convict, and Modi, the prime minister
How long can a marriage of convenience last? In politics, often longer than it should. The oddest political couple today is Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad. Has the countdown to their divorce begun? Nitish, one of India’s shrewdest politicians, has seethed for months over a series of barbs directed at him by Lalu’s family.
He knows that the alliance is no longer viable. But a break-up at this stage would launch him straight into the warm embrace of the BJP, a prospect he doesn’t relish. Yet the relationship between Nitish and Lalu has clearly passed the point of no return. Lalu’s conviction and jail time in the fodder scam could earlier be dismissed as an old (1996) CBI case.
But his recent contacts with jailed underworld criminal Shahabuddin, who has Islamist terrorist links, crosses several red lines.
Allegations
The benami property allegations by the income-tax department against Lalu’s family couldn’t have come at a worse time, just before the presidential election. The income-tax department is investigating benami properties valued at over Rs 1,000 crore belonging to Lalu’s two sons, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap, daughter Misa Bharti and wife Rabri Devi.
Lalu believes the file containing details of the properties, on which the CBI and income-tax department based their raids on his family, were vetted by the Nitish government. The BJP’s Sushil Kumar Modi has virtually confirmed this.
Nitish’s decision to back the BJP’s presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind, despite Lalu pleading with him not to make “a historical blunder” and instead support the Opposition’s candidate Meira Kumar, drew a bitter response from Lalu’s 27-year-old son and deputy chief minister Tejashwi:
“With our opportunistic behaviour or political manipulations, we may score a few goals and make or break governments, but history, unlike television anchors, shall bear witness to the fact that when people needed us to strengthen the cause of progressive and people-centred politics, we decided to look the other way.”
Nitish has not restrained his party from hitting back. Sanjay Singh, the JD(U)’s spokesperson, said: “We are not wearing bangles and are capable of giving replies, but it will only weaken the alliance.”
KC Tyagi, the JD(U)’s Rajya Sabha MP, went further. He declared that the JD(U) was “far more comfortable with the BJP” and that “the alliance cannot be saved”. Alarmed, Lalu is trying to appease the JD(U), recognising that a break in the alliance would leave his family members even more vulnerable to the corruption cases against them.
It is difficult to imagine a more dysfunctional family than Lalu’s. He installed his wife as chief minister in 1997 after being forced to resign when an arrest warrant was issued against him on corruption charges.
He promoted ‘jungle raj’ in Bihar. He befriended underworld don Shahabuddin in order to win misguided Muslim votes. He inducted his two sons, both in their twenties, into the Bihar cabinet, including making one of them deputy chief minister.
Credibility
Nitish cringed at all of this but, in the country’s febrile political environment, held his peace. How long can he do so?
For every day that he continues his alliance with Lalu, Nitish loses one more sliver of credibility. Lalu’s family is meanwhile giving him reasons daily to break this ill-fated and ill-advisedalliance.
His son Tej Pratap, health minister in Nitish’s cabinet, was accused of beating up his own RJD member during an iftar party at Lalu’s residence last Friday. Tej Pratap abused and assaulted Sanoj Yadav who had spoken ill of Lalu in a television news channel debate.
The decision to end the JD(U)’s alliance with the RJD, despite such daily aggravations, will not be easy for Nitish. He is nearly half-way through his term as chief minister. The JD(U) has 71 seats in the 243-seat Bihar assembly. The RJD has 80 seats and the BJP 53. A JD(U)-BJP alliance government would have 124 seats — a working majority.
Realignment
Reviving a JD(U)-BJP alliance could help Nitish in three ways. First, he would free himself of the taint of Lalu. Second, like the Biju Janta Dal (BJD), the JD(U) can play a quasi-neutral role in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Third, as a state-level ally of the BJP, Bihar can expect generous fund allocations for the state. If anything, Nitish is as cautious as he is shrewd.
Sensing the popular mood in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he made his first tentative move by supporting demonetisation even as every other Opposition party eviscerated.
By supporting the BJP’s presidential candidate Kovind over the Opposition’s Bihar ki beti Meira Kumar, Nitish has moved a step closer to the political realignments that will inevitably take place before 2019. Nitish is canny enough to do the electoral math for 2019. The Northeast, Tamil Nadu and Odisha are all in play.
Rajinikanth’s political debut could be a major swing factor. It may, therefore, be arithmetically impossible for the Congress-led Opposition mahagathbandan to stop an expanded NDA from forming a government under Modi in 2019.
The BJP, meanwhile, needs to induct fresh talent into the NDA cabinet with defence, external affairs and environment calling out for special attention.
Nitish and BJD rebels-in-the-making would be welcome additions to the 2019 Modi cabinet. Given these facts, Nitish will soon have to choose between Lalu, the convict, and Modi, the prime minister.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)