Why Nitish Kumar welcomed Modi in Bihar with open arms

For the Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, life seems to have turned a full circle on July 25, albeit momentarily. It was in June 2010 when Nitish shut the door on the BJP, then his alliance partner, withdrawing his dinner invitation, as he was incensed at the publication of full-page advertisement carrying his photograph with his then Gujarat counterpart Narendra Modi.

Nitish disliked it because just a few months before the 2010 Assembly polls he did not wish to be seen in the company of Modi - even in photographs - as then Gujarat CM was allegedly perceived as someone who did not act decisively when Muslims were slaughtered in Gujarat during 2002 riots. Five years later, on Saturday, he welcomed the same person, now the prime minister of India.

Nitish on Saturday was seen seated next to Modi on the dais, wearing an impassive face, as the prime minister inaugurated new campus of IIT at Bihta, and flagged off Daniawa-Biharsharif passenger train and a new Patna-Mumbai train, besides unveiling the Jagdishpur-Haldia gas pipeline.

If Nitish's anti-Modi posturing in 2010 - and since then - was part of a well calibrated hawkish secular posturing, aimed at emerging as the tallest champion of Muslim voters, his decision to share dais with the prime minister was to emerge as a statesman, who showed courtesy and followed protocol when the prime minister of India arrived in Patna. To top it all, the fear of losing Muslim votes is no longer there, as the 17 per cent minority voters don't seem to have any choice except the Nitish-led Janata Parivar.

Clearly, sharing the dais with Modi is not a climb down for Nitish, who during his heydays as the BJP's alliance partner, even made the saffron party not to let Modi campaign in Bihar during the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2010 state Assembly polls.

In fact, everything worked as per the script, as Nitish snapped his ties with the BJP in June 2013, shortly after Modi was declared the prime ministerial candidate. However, Nitish ironically was let down by the same voters, who he thought would back him for snapping his ties with the BJP on the question of backing Modi. But the minority voters had backed Lalu Yadav in Lok Sabha polls, thinking the RJD stood a better chance than Nitish to challenge Modi.

Now in three months from now, when Bihar will vote for its next government, Nitish Kumar's gambit of joining hands with Lalu will be put to test. The results will prove if he emerges as a master strategist to rival the handful of chief ministers who have won a third successive terms in India, or go down as a gambler who played risky politics and committed mistakes at crucial junctures.

Five reasons why Nitish dislikes Modi:

1. Because, today when Nitish finds his career at stake, as he prepares for the make or break Assembly polls scheduled in October-November, his biggest challenge stems from Modi under whose leadership BJP is desperate to defeat Nitish.

2. Because, minus Nitish's minority support, Modi is everything that Bihar CM is known for in terms of good governance and decisive leadership. Had Modi remained within Gujarat, many believe Nitish could have been at the top in the NDA's pecking order. But, as Modi successfully expanded his support base; arrogating all the positive titles once reserved for Nitish in Bihar, it marginalised Nitish Kumar so much that he was forced to accept Lalu as a companion.

3. Modi is the person because of whom Nitish had to storm out of the BJP alliance - where he was most comfortable and where his words carried maximum force.

4. From calling the shots in the NDA to the one reduced to Chhota Bhai status in Bihar's Janata Parivar, Nitish's decline has been steep. Nitish knows he owes his reduced status to Modi.

5. Modi and his strategists have successfully weaned away the social base of Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) and Mahadalits and that Nitish had methodically created for him. It was Nitish's "coalition of extremes" - extending from the upper castes at one end to the EBCs (Extremely backward castes) and Mahadalits at the other - that once made him look invincible in Bihar. Team Modi successfully weaned it away in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.