Odd Even 2.0 was a disaster, but Kejriwal won't stop or learn
There are three main conclusions at the end of Arvind Kejriwal’s Odd-Even phase one: Firstly, citizens’ enthusiasm with the scheme declined in this round when compared to the first one. Secondly, the Delhi chief minister will persist with this programme – either as additional phases or as a regular monthly occurrence, at his own peril.
And lastly, there is no evidence that this bout of Kejriwal’s enthusiasm reduced pollution levels in the capital city.
Yet, the Delhi government is speaking with a forked tongue. On the one hand, its ministers have declared that any decision on the third phase, if ever there is one, will be taken only after due analysis of the second phase. But on the other, there are media reports that the AAP government has started drawing up plans to implement the Odd-Even car rationing scheme again in July before making the scheme permanent from September.
This would be a travesty of planned governance because there was no empirical data in Kejriwal’s hand to justify even the second phase and already his government is planning to continue the scheme.
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| The purpose of Odd-Even was to reduce pollution and not ease traffic. |
Kejriwal was justified in introducing the scheme in January because it drew public attention to a serious social and health problem. There is no doubt that over the years there has been an alarming dip in the city’s air quality leading to increased respiratory ailments especially in winters.
But high levels of pollution were not solely due to vehicular pollution but are dependent on several other factors ranging from climactic conditions to dust from incessant construction. But the AAP leader became victim to megalomaniacal desire to be remembered in history for initiating a truly innovative and effective scheme.
For Kejriwal, personal passengers cars were soft targets and he was clearly driven by Tughlaq-ean ambitions. Mohammed Bin Tughlaq was eventually forced to stop the minting of copper and brass coins because he accepted that his treasury was going bankrupt owing to the ill-conceived scheme.
Similarly, the chief minister must see the writing on the wall and understand that compliance of Odd-Even phase two was lesser compared to the previous episode. If he comes back with another round or makes Odd-Even a monthly affair, Kejriwal risks his love affair with Dilliwalas coming to an end.
The city which bestowed such a massive mandate also has the capacity to withdraw it overnight as Prime Minister Narendra Modi realised.
The basic lesson for Kejriwal from phase one was that he stood a chance of pushing his faulty scheme by shifting the goal post. From the middle of the first fortnight in January, AAP volunteers and publicists began tom-toming about reduced number of vehicles and how congestion on Delhi roads eased.
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| Kejriwal must remember that the Odd-Even scheme is for the good of the people and not to inflate his ego. |
The multimedia advertisement for phase two too marketed the "good news" by saying that once again Delhi’s roads will become khalee or empty. But the purpose of Odd-Even was to reduce pollution and not ease traffic!
Delhi government’s advertisements also had Kejriwal gushing excitedly about how people made new friends thanks to Odd-Even phase one. But did the people of Delhi want to add entries on their phone books? Were personal cars forced into periodic banishments to enable people to make further contacts and "network" with others so that they could take their businesses forward?
The Delhi government has failed to provide data to demonstrate that the reduced number of cars on roads brought down pollution. In the absence of such data, Kejriwal justified phase two – and will probably continue in future too – by saying that people "demanded it".
But a few half-hearted surveys are no solid ground to claim the people demanded a repeat of Odd-Even. Both the basis of people’s request and reduction in traffic flow has been subjectively assessed. It is only personal judgement that traffic has been reduced by "X" percentage because the government has no data to share to give the number that have passed through heavy traffic points. Assessments of no two people are the same.
There is also another important issue on which the Delhi government has either given no thought or does not have the ability to think through such issues. To what extent do citizens’ lives, their well-being and professional performance get affected by intermittent periods when they are unable to use their personal vehicles?
In big cities, the world over, people live by the clock and increasing corporatisation has made it necessary for people to electronically register their entry and exit from office. Any intermittent change in schedule leads to irregular timings and add to societal stress.
Kejriwal must remember that the Odd-Even scheme is for the good of the people and not to inflate his ego. A good leader must have the capacity to accept that something has not worked. It is time for Kejriwal to beat a retreat and look for other ways to combat pollution. He will then renew his relationship with citizens.
A master in converting situation to political benefit, Kejriwal must now initiate a wider campaign to improve public transport, road system, introducing system of permits to purchase new and old cars, reviewing parking charges on public land and making it necessary for people to provide proof of parking space before being allowed to own cars.
Kejriwal has made his point about public good. But for this he must stop insisting that only a few must incur personal cost – and this includes the expense of inconvenience.