Why Rajinikanth's decision to enter politics will be terrible for Tamil Nadu
It's happened yet again. Rajinikanth, the veteran actor with almost as many monikers as movies, has once again threatened to take the plunge and formally join Tamil politics.
We've largely got used to these hollow statements as part of the superstar's clever manipulation of the media just before announcing a new film or project for more than two decades now. And the most recent attempt seems to follow the trend, preceding as it did the announcement of his latest film Kaala: Karikaalan.
The difference now, however, are the vast changes that Tamil politics has seen in the months following the death of six-time chief minister J Jayalalithaa. We saw claimants to the throne of Poes Garden come and fail in their attempts to seize control of the state: First Sasikala, the shadowy confidante with connections, mostly unsavoury, across Tamil Nadu, then her nephew, TTV Dinakaran.
Both of their gambits failed, with Sasikala in prison, and Dinakaran recently out on bail. In their quest to seize power, the Mannargudi mafia ended up destabilising the Tamil Nadu government. Its ruling party, the AIADMK, is now split in twain.
One faction is led by three-time interim chief minister O Panneerselvam, who is currently recovering from his own failed attempt at seizing power. The other faction is led by Edappadi K Palaniswamy, and while his government is secure in terms of seats in the Legislative Assembly, it is weak when it comes to dealing with the Narendra Modi government.
It's important to note developments in the other leading Dravidian party as well. Karunanidhi, the grand old man of Tamil politics, has effectively retired from public life, with his son, MK Stalin, running the DMK in his place as working president. Stalin himself used the occasion of the DMK patriarch's 94th birthday to establish himself as a leader on the national level by inviting Opposition leaders from across the country, just as his father had done in the 1980s.
The man, known as thalaivar to his legions of doting fans, may have hinted at joining politics before, but it was always an empty boast because of the formidable challenges he would have faced.
To take on Jayalalithaa, as Rajinikanth did in 1996 when he famously declared that if she won "even God couldn't save Tamil Nadu", was an especially precarious position for an actor to take, given her control over the Tamil film industry, and her ruthlessness in dealing with political enemies, perceived or otherwise.
And to take on Karunanidhi would mean dealing with a politician who has left an indelible mark on Tamil Nadu, and with the last surviving link to the Justice Party and the ideals of Periyar's Dravidian movement.
Their absence has resulted in the speculation that Tamil politics is about to see a shift; that there is a potential for a new leader or party outside of the two Dravidian majors to win over the electorate. In this context, Rajinikanth's recent comments received a flurry of media attention, with intense speculation and remarkable hyperbole, especially from the English media channels based out of Delhi: One even posited "Will Rajini be the saviour of the south" - implying, erroneously, that all five states are interested in the political fortunes of the man who once said, "En vazhi thani vazhi thaan (my way is the unique way)".
The relationship between the world of films and politics in Tamil Nadu is well-known: three of the most influential Dravidian politicians the state has seen emerged from Kollywood.
AIADMK founder MG Ramachandran captured the hearts and minds of the general public on screen, playing roles that solidified his reputation as a man of the people which complemented his political rhetoric.
Jayalalithaa was equally well-known as an actress, while DMK chief Karunanidhi first made his name as a remarkable screenwriter and poet.
Rajinikanth taking the plunge would be a highly regressive step for Tamil Nadu's already stagnant political system. The state, since the 1970s, has witnessed the dominance of slavish cults of personality, especially under Jayalalithaa who took a leaf out of her mentor's book and transformed herself into "Amma" (mother in Tamil) following her disastrous defeat in the 1996 Assembly elections.
There was a hope that her death, along with the retirement of Karunanidhi, would signal a change; that policy, rather than persona, would become the defining factor in deciding which party to vote for during an election]; and that governance as a whole would improve in the state.
Rajinikanth would scupper any chance of that given his current political potential is entirely based on his popularity. Worse still would be that he would either join the BJP, or, given the emphasis he places on matters of spirituality both on and off his sets, float a diet saffron party of his own, which would be an unfortunate development in the state that has consistently resisted the influence of Delhi and the cow belt, since even before Independence.
But beyond the morass of future political alliances is a deeper and more immediate issue that needs to be addressed.
Tamil Nadu is currently reeling after a series of ongoing crises, both on and off the political field. The worst drought in living memory, coupled with the failure of successive harvest and chronic water shortages, saw farmers from the Cauvery delta protest in Delhi for 40 days.
There is an administrative crisis underway as well, with no municipality, from the smallest panchayat to the largest city, having elected officials, meaning that an already overtaxed and overburdened bureaucracy is in danger of being overwhelmed.
But perhaps the most significant issue that the ordinary Tamil citizen faces is the feeling that they are not being represented as vociferously in Parliament as in the past. The controversial Good and Services Tax (GST) along with the NEET exams were both bitterly opposed by Jayalalithaa when she was alive, who argued cogently that the former would impact the federal authority of states, and yet they were passed without any sign of opposition by her party following her death.
The 14th Finance Commission has, once again, shortchanged Tamil Nadu by allocating it a bare minimum of funds. Fears of a renewed attempt to impose Hindi upon the country have led to vociferous opposition by the DMK, but a conspicuous silence on the part of the ruling party.
Subsequent shows of power from the Centre, such as Union minister Venkaiah Naidu's unprecedented threat to cut funds after inspecting records at the secretariat at Fort St George, have only added to the fear that the Palaniswamy government, in its desperation to stay in power until 2021, has bowed to the demands of Delhi.
It is unclear just how much influence Rajinikanth will have if he does join politics, however. If one takes his cryptic comments made to fans, asking them to "be ready for war" to mean he is contesting polls, that would essentially mean the 2019 general elections when he would be 67, or the next Assembly elections in 2021.
His popularity is also not what it once was. In 1996, his anti-AIADMK comment played a significant role in Jayalalithaa's catastrophic electoral defeat; now, even in its present, weakened state, it is unlikely whether he could wreak such havoc on the party.
But his entry will have an impact given the dearth of charismatic leaders that the Tamil people have come to accept as being an integral part of their politics. It is almost a certainty that another leader with nothing to offer but a populist plank would only exacerbate the very real issues that the state is facing.
For that to change, for governance, policy, and leadership to become key issues in a stagnant democratic system, the worrying trend of populist leaders needs to die.