It’s Fadnavis versus Pawar, Maria is just collateral
In July when Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis laid out his plans and clarifications to India Today, he mentioned his decision to introduce a substitute for sugar in the state. “I think, as a state, we should shift more towards ethanol derived from B molasses. I want people to start focusing on this shift. We will be able to reduce prices a bit,” he said. Since then, he’s taken on the sugar lobby stubbornly in many ways, including blaming it for water guzzling in an already drought-hit state, with major plans to shift farmers to other crops and break their cycle of debt.
In his distrust of former Mumbai police commissioner Rakesh Maria and associated police officers allied with specific political masters, Fadnavis has spent his past year in grave danger of overplaying his hand. Driven to the verge of dismissing a much-loved media-savvy top police officer, the plan being in contradiction of the rules of the police manual have held him back several times, on good advice from those whose counsel he keeps. It was said that the photograph of Maria with the tainted former IPL boss Lalit Modi obstructed his premature transfer by linking his fate to external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje. By association, he could not be transferred without sparking cries for action against the others.
Even so, the mutual distrust has been straining at the bit, and it was with bitten tongue that the two barely reached September when Fadnavis, who prefers a low profile operation style and was irked by the media’s 24X7 coverage of the "Maria Murder Show", decided to show the Maharashtra Police who’s boss. Within the ranks, the transfer is being seen as sending a message across the police spectrum: loyalty will be prized. Neither Ahmad Javed, Maria's replacement as Mumbai police commissioner, nor Maria himself can be happy, but it is clear that no one has a choice in the matter. And only one man wins: Fadnavis.
His appointment of Javed - his first choice being the sharp as a tack Dutta Padsalgikar - in line for the top job at the Intelligence Bureau (IB) in New Delhi, was not without thought. While on the surface it is simply making right a wrong done to Javed, in his being overlooked for the post in favour of Maria to begin with, for only a short period of four months till he retires in December, it is in fact much more strategic. Javed is not only a progressive and devout Muslim, but a Bihari. It is no coincidence that elections in Bihar are around the corner. As one joke doing the rounds of police circles this morning put it: "Hang around long enough and someone’s home state will have an election, and everyone will get a chance to be CP". Within the span of two weeks, effectively, the BJP in Maharashtra has solidified its base amongst the resident Jain community, (which is why you find Shiv Sena factions protesting, not for the want of meat, but at the clear division of vote banks), but put the faith back into the policing of the Muslim community, especially with terror-sensitive festivals, always prone to communal tensions, around the corner, in a manner that has their existing fanatical loyalists with nothing to object to.
And for the ever-increasing Bihari migrant population that typically takes the train back to Bihar to vote, it’s a message that their interests will be looked after. The other backward class (OBC) population and Dalit groups will be next to be appeased. When Fadnavis takes tougher political stances, on issues like coastal roads, minority issues, water and sugar, and against the unreliable support of grumpy coalition partners, he will have built his support across a wider base.
But the larger picture still remains. Whose wheel is Fadnavis putting a spoke in? With new Mumbai police commissioner Javed overseeing Maria’s investigation, and finishing the Sheena Bora murder investigation, the much hinted at "can of worms" will not only be tied up, but will now have a second perspective. What emerges makes for excellent fodder for the dossier-collecting chief minister who holds his cards close to his chest for when he may need them. The absolute loyalty of the Nagpur boys has been no spontaneous outpouring of emotion. As a Nagpur-based friend of Fadnavis put it: "Make no mistake, he’s a shrewd strategist”.
Fadnavis has the cards. Will play. Will call the bluff. Your turn.