Will Modi-Shah succeed in dividing Opposition with Ram Nath Kovind?
Last Sunday, the president of a key NDA ally summed it up best when asked about the identity of the NDA's choice for the post of India’s President - "Only God and the PM know about it".
In what is now becoming established practice when it comes to choosing candidates for key positions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah once again stumped the political class by choosing a relatively unknown Ram Nath Kovind as the NDA's presidential candidate.
Nobody within the BJP, not even senior cabinet ministers, key allies or even journalists, had the remotest inkling that Kovind would make the cut.
Choosing the Bihar Governor as their presidential candidate is certainly an astute political move on the part of the Modi-Shah duo. It caught everybody by surprise and sent the Opposition scurrying to come up with a response and, more importantly, prevent division within its ranks.
In picking Kovind, a Dalit from UP, the BJP has put the Opposition on the backfoot, forcing the likes of the BSP and JD (U) to make a hard choice. The BSP cannot be seen preventing a Dalit from becoming President; now its only hope is that the Opposition too will put up a candidate from the same community thereby making it easier for the BSP to oppose the BJP.
It was evident from the very beginning, given the fact that for the first time since Independence the BJP has the numbers to elect one of their own as President and vice-president of the country, that whomsoever the party will choose would have to be in tune with the PM's style of functioning, and not somebody who at any stage will have an adversarial relationship with the Prime Minister.
That automatically ruled out stalwarts like LK Advani, MM Joshi, Venkaiah Naidu and Sushma Swaraj. Kovind in that sense fits the bill. He may be unexceptional but he is also non-controversial. He has so far been relatively unknown but is no greenhorn in politics either.
He has been a Rajya Sabha MP twice and former Prime Minister Morarji Desai's secretary. Above all his nomination adds value to the BJP. It may help the BJP expand its support base among the Dalits, not just in UP but across the country.
None of the three BJP stalwarts barring their seniority would have added in terms of votes to what the BJP under Modi already has on its side.
As things stand, Kovind is poised to become the 14th President of India. The Opposition will undoubtedly try and make a fight of it, but given the arithmetic of the electoral college, the challenge may not amount to more than a symbolic fight.
Of the 10,98,903 value votes in the electoral college, the majority mark is 5,49,452. The ruling combine, bolstered by support from the BJD, TRS and YSR, is comfortably placed and already has 60.8 per cent, or 6,09,433, of the votes, with the Opposition lagging behind with 3,81,295 votes.
In case the SP, JD (U) and BSP decide to support Kovind, the ruling combine’s vote share might go up to 65.98 per cent.
The word coming out from the Opposition camp is that it may in all probability decide to put up a Dalit or tribal as its candidate, in the hope of denying any advantage that the BJP might want to derive among the community by putting up Kovind.
On Thursday, the 17-party Opposition combine will meet to pick its candidate, and the names being mentioned are that of former home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde and former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar.
No surprises then if the race to Raisina Hill turns into a high-pitched battle.