What significance does Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh hold in poll-bound Punjab?

Dera Sacha Sauda (DSS) Chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh Insan, the head of the religious sect, has been granted a furlough by the Rohtak Divisional Commissioner from February 7-27, 2022. The Dera Chief is supposed to spend time with his family members in Gurugram and is not allowed to venture outside. He also has to surrender at the district jail in Sunaria on February 27.

Ram Rahim Singh was sentenced to 20 years of imprisonment by a special CBI court in Panchkula in August 2017 in the case of raping two of his disciples. In 2021, the special CBI court had sentenced him to life imprisonment along with four others for the murder of former dera manager Ranjit Singh in 2002. In 2019, he was pronounced guilty along with three others for the murder of journalist Ramchandra Chhatrapati, who had published the anonymous letter of sexual exploitation of women by the Dera chief at his ashram.

Though Haryana Jail Minister Ranjit Singh has said that it was the right of every inmate to get furlough as per law, what factors in here is the timing of his release – right ahead of Punjab Elections 2022. Punjab goes to polls on February 20, 2022, and the Dera Chief has been granted relief till February 27.

His Dera events have gathered pace in the last one month and political leaders are marching to the events to seek 'blessings'. So far, Dera’s political unit hasn’t announced its decision to support any political entity but its role in certain constituencies is significant.

What exactly is the Dera’s role in Punjab elections?

THE RELEVANCE OF DERA IN PUNJAB

Dera sect has around 50 lakh followers in Punjab and Haryana. Dera has more than 35 lakh followers in Punjab alone. Majority of the followers are from the social and economically marginalised backgrounds.

In Punjab, Dera has massive influence in the Malwa region, which has 13 districts and directly affects 40 of the 117 constituencies in the Punjab Assembly. The key districts in Malwa where Dera has influence are Patiala, Bathinda, Sangram, Ferozepur and Faridkot.

In all, Dera has around 84 branches in Punjab; with the largest of them being Salabatpura, Bathinda, which has 11 Dera units. In the whole of Punjab, there are at least 15,000 small and big Deras, which are often frequented by political leaders.

In 2007, Dera Chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh had supported the Congress party in the Malwa region. Congress got 37 of the 67 seats in the region and SAD-BJP suffered defeat in the region.

However, Congress failed to retain the power as SAD-BJP won the other regions. 

PARTY LEADERS THRONG TO SATSANGS

As the Punjab assembly elections approach, candidates from all parties were seen at the event organised by the sect. On January 9, 2022, The Tribune India reported that several leaders from the BJP, Congress, AAP and SAD appeared at a Dera congregation at Salabatpura, Bathinda, to seek blessings. Though the Dera spokesperson Haricharan Singh said that it was a religious event and that there was nothing politcal about it, visits of prominent leaders does indicate that there was more to it than what meets the eye.

On January 25, 2022, there was another Dera sect event organised in Sirsa, Haryana, the Times of India reported. This was another show of strength by the Dera. Though the Dera spokesperson said that it was the 103rd anniversary of Dera's second head, Shah Satnam; insiders said that it was a show of Dera's strength ahead of the Punjab Assembly Elections 2022.

For example, BJP MLA Arun Narang, BJP candidate from Sardulgarh Jagjit Singh Milkha, Congress leader Mangat Rai Bansal whose wife Manju Bala is a Congress candidate from Maur in Bathinda district, also attended the event. Punjab Lok Congress candidate from the Patiala seat was also there at the event.

Not only this, Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi too has been going from one Dera to another ever since he replaced Captain Amarinder Singh as the Chief Minister. With around 35 lakh followers of Dera and most of them from the SC community, the community which holds the maximum vote share in state, the CM wouldn't mind gaining support of the sect in the elections.

IS DERA ALONE ENOUGH?

Though the Dera has hold on a large numbers of voters in the Malwa region, it still can’t swing elections. For example, the Dera Chief, in the 2017 Punjab Assembly Elections had openly announced the support for the SAD-BJP alliance, but the alliance was rooted out of the state with only 18 seats, its worst performance to this date.

THE DEBACLE OF 2017 AND LESSON LEARNT

Much of that SAD-BJP defeat in 2017 came from Sikh voters' angst against Dera Chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh Insan, who was accused of committing blasphemy in 2007 by appearing in attire similar to that of 10th Sikh guru, Guru Gobind Singh. The incident led to the Sikh community distancing itself from it. Akal Takht, the highest religious body for Sikhs, ordered a complete boycott of Dera.

In 2015, Akal Takht Jathedar Giani Gurbchan Singh ordered the pardon of Ram Rahim for blasphemy. This again infuriated the Sikh community. A violent face-off occured between Sikh preachers and Dera followers in Bargari village, Faridkot, Punjab.

Also, two Sikh youths died during anti-sacrilege protests against the Dera at Behbal Kalan. The SAD-BJP government was on the backfoot and Akal Takht had to take back the pardon.

When the Dera announced open support for SAD-BJP in 2017 Punjab Assembly Elections, the fears of the Sikh community gained strength that the government was, behind the curtains, involved with the Dera. This was one of the reasons why the SAD-BJP government bitterly lost the 2017 elections. 

DERA PLAYING IT SAFE

Now, as elections appear and the Dera Chief is out on furlough for 21 days, the Dera is keeping the cards close to its chest. It’s unlikely that the sect will announce open support for any party. Instead, what’s being expected is that the Dera will announce its support from certain seats. The tough lesson it learnt in 2017 is sure to decide its political strategy this time.