Rita Bahuguna Joshi's switch from Congress to BJP is Rahul Gandhi's failure
Speculations of former UP Congress president Rita Bahuguna Joshi switching loyalties to the BJP ran rife for a week. Even if it was predicted a long time back — beginning with her brother Vijay Bahuguna’s revolt that ultimately had him joining the BJP — it came as a surprise to many.
Though the reasons cited by Rita Bahuguna haven’t convinced anyone, the actual reasons might have to do with Congress naming former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit as their chief ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh.
Even an ostensibly small matter like being relegated as the third vehicle in the just-concluded Kisan Yatra undertaken by Rahul Gandhi, where other leaders got more prominence, might have played a part. There are also rumours that her ambition to launch her son from her sitting seat of Lucknow Cantonment and to contest from Allahabad, where she has her roots, did not find much favour with the party.
The Congress has predictably played down the development and the consensus opinion is that it wouldn’t make much of a difference on the ground in the run up to the Assembly election early next year. But this would also indicate that the BJP’s stocks are going up as the opinion polls are suggesting and the diminishing prospects of a Congress resurgence.
While the BJP was initially uncertain as to how they would convert their massive victory (they won 73 out of 80 seats) in the Lok Sabha polls into the state assembly polls, they seem to have chalked out a plan to ride piggyback on the Indian Army and the surgical strikes carried out across the LOC in the short run.
Although the absence of a face or a chief ministeral candidate is supposed to be a disadvantage going forward, the BJP has sound reasons to not go down that path despite the setbacks in Bihar and Delhi. The plan to subtly keep the communal pot boling while simultaneously playing up the Modi mask of development, a strategy that paid them rich dividents in 2014, is seemingly back in place.
But despite the dismissal of Rita Bahuguna Joshi’s decision as an opportunistic move, it is the Congress which has to introspect here on the reasons that would have prompted a veteran like Rita Bahuguna, daughter of three-time former UP CM, HN Bahuguna, to depart with less than six months to go for the polls.
Career politicians, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh, are seldom held hostage to ideology. What matters more here is grabbing of opportunities and making the right moves at the right time.
A particular cause of concern for the Congress should be Joshi’s parting shot at Rahul Gandhi on his ability, or lack thereof, to provide leadership.
"Rahul Gandhi has been unable to provide the kind of leadership that a national party like the Congress needs. The people have rejected his leadership," she had claimed announcing her decision while praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi in equal measure.
The Congress doesn’t seem to understand that managing Gandhi’s image is almost as crucial a task as the effort being put on the ground and at the grassroots. If Congress has to ensure that Rahul is the primary challenger to Modi in 2019 with many others like Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal trying to emerge as challengers, they have to carefully build up Rahul’s image as a humane champion of liberal values and an underdog willing to take on a Goliath-like Modi. And for that, Rahul should be seen as having the last word in the party.
There is still a lot of confusion over when exactly Rahul Gandhi would assume the party president’s chair. Sonia Gandhi’s five-year term had come to an end in September 2015 and was then extended by an year. That expired again on September 9, 2016.
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| There is still a lot of confusion over when exactly Rahul Gandhi would assume the party president’s chair. (PTI) |
While there are fears that more senior leaders could desert the party if Rahul were to be named as president on the apprehension of getting sidelined, the party doesn’t seem to have any road map in place for a smooth transition.
It is understandable that the grand old party doesn’t want to risk desertions at crucial times like these when Assembly elections are due, but that would always be the case going forward in 2017 and 2018.
Rahul Gandhi’s ascension as Congress president would be a good beginning to reconstruct his image. That would also end speculations within and outside the party on Rahul’s future and his having to put up with comparisions with his sister, Priyanka Vadra.
It would also make it an easier decision to unleash Priyanka into the campaign across Uttar Pradesh and utilise her charisma and connect with the masses without affecting Rahul’s standing in the party.
Rahul Gandhi’s Kissan Yatra across UP had been cruising smoothly till the events at the border stealed his thunder and relegated him to the back pages. But it was nevertheless heartening to see Rahul on a mission, and his work ethic during this farmer outreach program armed with "Kisan mang patras" (Farmers’ memorandum), and promises of loan waivers.
It is upto the party and poll managers to keep this momentum going and introduce Priyanka Gandhi into the campaign beyond the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareilli for the first time.
But the Congress behemoth is unlikely to effect all this in such quick time and that could probably result in yet another unremarkable performance at the hustings despite all the planning and professionalism injected into the party campaign by Prashant Kishor.
Rita Bahuguna’s decision to jump ship at this late stage might also be heavily influenced by a sense of deja vu from the campaign for Uttar Pradesh in 2012 when she was still the president of the state Congress.
Rahul Gandhi, on the back of a good performance of 21 seats out of 80 in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, embarked on a much ambitious program to rejuvenate the party in the state and addressed as many as 211 public meetings in a span of 48 days.
Despite putting in a lot of work, the party fared so badly and was once again relegated to the fourth place with a paltry 28 seats in its kitty out of 404. Joshi was gracious enough to accept the blame and tender her resignation and shield Rahul Gandhi in the process.
Raj Babbar and Sheila Dikshit too might oblige similarly in the event of another humiliating performance but that would only make things worse for Rahul and his prospects of mounting a challenge to Prime Minister Modi in 2019.
It remains to be seen if Congress can come up with solutions, rise to the occasion and win at least 50 seats or more to make itself relevant and possibly hitch an alliance with the Mayawati-led BSP and form a coalition government in the crucial state. This might go a long way in consolidating the opposition votes in 2019.
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