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Who are the losers and winners of UP election's first phase?

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DailyBiteFeb 12, 2017 | 16:21

Who are the losers and winners of UP election's first phase?

1) All speculations, fatwas and edicts aside, a large number of Muslims have voted for the SP-Congress alliance in western Uttar Pradesh, reports suggest.

The BSP hasn't emerged as the first choice of the community despite fielding 100 Muslim candidates.

Muslims, for instance, have thrown their weight largely behind the Samajwadi Party's Hindu nominees in constituencies like Budhana in Muzaffarnagar district, rejecting the BSP's candidates from their own community.

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Mustaqim, a papaya vendor in the streets of Budhana, was one of the first to arrive at a polling booth in his area.

He frankly speaks about his support to the SP. "I can bring a cycle home, but not an elephant," he said, smiling. He was asked why he didn't press the button against the BSP's symbol.

2) This Muslim leaning towards the SP in western UP is an alarm for Mayawati.

The region has been her traditional stronghold. In the last elections, the BSP won as many seats as the SP despite a strong pro-SP wave back then.

A trail in these 73 constituencies will spell trouble for Mayawati's party in the next phases of the current vote.

Muslims make up 17 per cent of the state population. In western UP, they constitute 26 per cent.

3) Securing considerable Muslim support in western UP is a positive sign for the SP.

The SP can now hope this trend will continue in other parts of the state as well.

That said, translating Muslim vote into seats in western UP remains a challenge for CM Akhilesh Yadav as the region hardly has a solid Yadav bloc. Nor has western UP any other caste group that could have lent support to the SP, together with Muslims, to help the Yadavs win a sizeable number of constituencies in this part of the state.

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But if Muslims of western UP had backed the BSP, along with the party's loyal Dalit bloc, they would then have been able to build the foundation of a glorious victory for Mayawati.

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"I can bring a cycle home, but not an elephant," he said. (Photo: India Today)

Another saving grace for the SP is Akhilesh's own sway over young voters.

4) Regardless of the BJP's tall claims, Jats are not hiding their resentment towards the saffron party.

Like the 2014 general elections, it's impossible for the BJP to secure overwhelming Jat support this time too. The Jats are a decisive force in most of the 73 constituencies that polled on Saturday.

And in most of these boroughs, the Jat vote-bloc was seen divided between the BJP and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Jat voters, especially the elderly, in rural areas voted for the RLD in order to teach the BJP a lesson.

They were heard saying their sole objective was to see the saffron party defeated whether or not their RLD candidates won. In cities though, Jats, especially the young, still liked the BJP.

5) Jats are angry with the BJP for not being given reservations in government jobs.

The impact of the Jat agitation in Haryana is clearly visible in western Uttar Pradesh. The community remembers the death of 21 Jats last year in the neighbouring state.

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The Jats here feel they were used by the BJP in the 2014 elections, post the Muzaffarnagar riot, but were given nothing in return.

In Kharad village along the Muzaffarnagar-Shamli road, a senior citizen, Jitendra Malik, is upset with the PM.

Narendra Modi, he says, doesn't forget to congratulate Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif on his birthday. But the PM would not post a single tweet on the birth anniversary of Chaudhary Charan Singh, the late Jat leader, regrets Malik.

6) Ajit Singh's RLD has dented quite a number of Jat-dominated constituencies to play spoilsport for the BJP.

On its own, the RLD will only be able to secure a handful of seats because it has no caste group, other than anti-BJP Jats, standing in its support.

7) The BJP hoped for some gains out of a possible division of Muslim votes.

But the first phase of voting is a cause of worry for the saffron party. Despite the full support of upper castes in western UP, the backward communities didn't finally side with the BJP that initially appeared successful in wooing them.

8) Speculations were rife the BJP might lose out for not projecting its chief ministerial face.

But the reality is that the party is winning its support mostly in Modi's name. People backing the BJP say they are doing so only because of the PM.

The Modi wave is weaker now than it was in 2014, but most of BJP's support is still stemming from Modi's charisma.

9) Polarisation in and around Muzaffarnagar has weakened but hasn't completely vanished.

What's strange though is that both the Jats and Muslims - who mostly fought with each other during the Muzaffarnagar rioting - are now voting to defeat the BJP.

10) Demonetisation doesn't appear to be as big an issue on the ground as it was projected to be for the Uttar Pradesh elections.

Candidates and leaders spoke about it during campaign but voters didn't really. Urban voters do discuss problems related to the noteban to some extent, but not rural.

Other issues have dominated the scene in villages. In the sugar-belt of western UP, difficulties of cane farmers are a significant issue.

Local farmers are worried about the competition they are facing from their counterparts in Haryana, who are selling their produce to sugar mills of Muzaffarnagar and Shamli in western UP.

Last updated: February 12, 2017 | 16:21
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