First Bihar, now Uttarakhand. Is Amit Shah a Bhasmasura for Modi's BJP?

The BJP's Uttarakhand fiasco raises a pertinent question: Who is Bhasmasura in the ruling BJP? There is someone or there is a group of people who has heaped self-inflicted humiliation on the Modi government. From the point of instigating defections from the Congress to the imposition of the President's to the courtrooms, the BJP's strategy was doomed.

One who got the brainwave to destabilise the Harish Rawat government and who advised the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pursue that line of action is the Bhasmasura of the BJP. Because like the demon king of Hindu mythology they are hell bent on leading the Modi government to self-destruction.

Bhasmasura was a devotee of Lord Shiva who had been granted power that anyone on whose head he placed his hand would instantly burn to ashes. The demon king thought of burning Shiva who fled to save himself and later pleaded with Lord Vishnu to help him. Bhasmasura was tricked into placing his own hand on his head and turned into ashes.

Anyone in the BJP - whether party president Amit Shah or any minister - who persuaded Modi to destabilise the Uttarakhand government less than a year before the Assembly elections early next year can't be well-wishers of the Modi government. Or it must be a case of the BJP and the government depending upon half-witted people.

Only half-witted people wouldn't have learnt lessons from Arunachal Pradesh incident. Although the BJP succeeded in toppling the Congress government there, the Prime Minister ended up getting a lot of flak.

Encouraged by its victory in Arunachal, the BJP launched the remove-Congress plan in Uttarakhand. But how come the party forgot the Bihar lesson, which was such an unmitigated disaster for Modi. The forgotten lesson of Bihar was: destabilise the elected government by causing defections and earn the people's wrath.

One still fails to understand what was the tearing hurry for the BJP to attempt split in the Janata Dal (U) in Bihar by cutting a deal with Jitan Ram Manjhi, who had replaced Nitish Kumar as chief minister following Modi's victory.

Bihar was scheduled to go to elections barely a year and half later. Manjhi was turning out to be incompetent; he was fast losing the gains Nitish had made as chief minister. He was losing the confidence of the people at a time when Modi's popularity was at peak. Nitish and JD (U) leaders didn't know how to deal with Manjhi because they feared his removal might antagonise Dalit votes.

Then Amit Shah shot himself in the foot. He helped Nitish Kumar regain the initiative by betting on Manjhi, lost the plot and handed over Bihar to Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad combine on a platter. Any probability of anti-incumbency factor working against the sitting chief minister Nitish Kumar and in favour of the BJP was lost. This is called political hara-kiri.

In fact, the Bihar Assembly election was lost the day Amit Shah entered into a deal with Manjhi. The entire episode sent a strong message to the people that the Modi government was resorting to destabilising a non-BJP government by encouraging defections and horse-trading. As an aside, it would be futile to speculate at this stage as to what might have been the result of the Bihar Assembly elections had the BJP let Manjhi and Nitish fight their battle without cutting a deal with Manjhi and being seen as a villain.

The story is likely to be repeated in Uttarakhand.

Rawat would most likely have lost the elections next year with simmering dissidence in the ranks of the Congress combined with inept handing of party affairs at the state as well as at central levels. In the state, the people were still angry with the Congress for having made a complete mess of devastating Uttarakhand flood. Though the Congress had replaced Vijay Bahuguna as chief minister after the flood, Rawat has done little to win the confidence of the people.

But now Rawat has got a fresh lease of life and earned the sympathy of the people, thanks to the BJP.

In terms of size, Uttarakhand is a small state. Amit Shah could have let it go the Congress way. However, Uttarakhand has now acquired a profile larger than its size. It has fallen in a pattern. In public perception, it has proved the Modi government guilty of disregarding the mandate of voters, misusing Article 356 and using foul means to grab power.

Modi's image has been severely, perhaps irreparably, dented. It defies all logic what gains Amit Shah and BJP big guns thought would accrue to the party by getting into power for six months and face the elections in January 2017.

After the declaration of floor test in favour of Rawat by the Supreme Court today, the BJP is left to lick its wounds. The Bhasmasura effect has worked. The BJP leaders are facing no competition from the Congress, which they want to free India from. The party is self-destructing itself.

There is not much time for Modi to identity the Bhasmasuras in the BJP and take course correction. Will he?