Trump’s controversial Jerusalem decision could rip the veil off Saudi-Israel alliance
When Dhirubhai Ambani was 17 years old, he sailed to Aden in search of a job. It was 1949. Yemen was a British colony. Aden, Yemen’s bustling port, beckoned the adventurous. Dhirubhai worked as a petrol pump attendant in Aden for seven years before returning to India to begin his extraordinary corporate journey.
Crisis
Six decades later, Yemen faces what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in more than a quarter-century. Nearly 17 million of Yemen’s 28 million citizens are on the verge of starvation. A Saudi Arabia-led military coalition of Islamic states has bombed civilian targets for months. It has not spared hospitals, schools or even mosques.
To compound what could well be considered a war crime, the Saudi coalition (whose armed forces are led by former Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharif) has imposed a blockade on food and medical aid reaching Yemen from the UN and human rights bodies. With no electricity or medicines, Yemen is witnessing an outbreak of cholera on an unprecedented scale. Mortified by the inhumane Saudi blockade, the US last week officially asked Saudi Arabia to let essential supplies through.
While Saudi Arabia is the principal culprit in the war on Yemen, the United States and Britain are culpable as well. They backed the Saudi coalition to attack Yemen’s Houthi rebels in March 2015. Washington and London, veterans of illegal wars in Iraq and Syria, have provided the Saudis (a wealthy client state) with state-of-the-art weapons.
The Houthis, a Shia sub-sect, are supported by Shia Iran, a mortal enemy of Sunni Saudi Arabia. But beyond the Shia-Sunni conflict that today roils the Middle East, the war in Yemen transcends sectarian conflict. The Houthis have long felt marginalised by the Yemen government. They resent the increasing influence of Saudi religious extremism in the country.
Washington’s backing of the Saudi-led assault on Yemen fits into the cynical politics the US has practised in the Middle East for decades. President Donald Trump’s pathological opposition to Iran has consummated a US-Saudi-Israel ménage-a-trois, bound together by a visceral hatred for Iran. This has led to unintended and curious consequences. Despite not having diplomatic relations, Saudi Arabia and Israel are now in effect close allies. Qatar and Turkey, earlier in the Saudi orbit, have been driven into Iran’s embrace.
Trump’s controversial decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital could, however, rip the veil off the covert Saudi-Israel alliance. The Arab and larger Muslim world has erupted in anger over Trump’s decision. Saudi Arabia is widely seen as complicit in that decision. If Riyadh had objected strongly to Washington recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, it might well have been deferred. The US-Saudi-Israel alliance of convenience could be the first casualty of Trump’s Jerusalem move.
Horror
Saudi Arabia was the earliest supporter of the Islamic State (ISIS). It used the terrorist group to fight the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, an Alawaite (a Shia-affiliated sect). The intervention of Russia, backed by Iranian militias, turned the tide of the war. ISIS was defeated in both Syria and Iraq (a Shia majority country). To Riyadh’s horror, this has led to the formation of a crescent of Iranian power from Tehran in the east to Beirut in the west. A rattled Saudi Arabia has reacted in rage-fuelled panic.
United States, the world’s most liberal democracy, and Saudi Arabia, the world most repressive dictatorship, have enjoyed a cosy relationship since the 1930s. America provides protection, Saudi Arabia provides oil. Saudi Arabia’s callous blockade of Yemen has, however, made it difficult for the US to support the coalition war with the same enthusiasm as before. Riyadh too is in a fix. Humiliated by its inability to defeat the Houthis after nearly three years of war, it can’t openly back Trump’s Jerusalem decision which has delighted Israel and caused anger across the Middle East.
The Saudis’ choreographed entente cordiale with Israel could now unravel. Significantly, America’s dependence on Middle East oil will soon end. It produces nearly as much oil (10 million barrels a day) as Saudi Arabia. At over $65 (Rs 4,190) a barrel, US shale oil is again a profitable business and could make America a net oil exporter over the next few years.
Geopolitics
For India, the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East presents several challenges and opportunities. One, India’s excellent relations with Arab countries, Palestinians, Iran and Israel have deepened under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cementing New Delhi’s role as a neutral player in the Middle East.
Two, India has stakes across the region: over seven million Indians work in the Middle East. Three, the Iranian port of Chabahar, recently operationalised, gives India for the first time direct access to landlocked Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. Four, Israel is a key defence partner. This explains India’s silence as violent protests over Jerusalem explode across the Arab world.
Quietly though, India is deploying two other geopolitical aces it has up its sleeve. The first is the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) which will connect India with central Asia right up to St Petersburg in Russia. The second ace is the Asia Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) linking India to resource-rich Africa.
Even as China suspends three China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure projects on grounds of corruption and security, India’s new economic corridors will transform the geopolitics of a volatile region across three continents: Asia, Europe and Africa.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)