Nitish Kumar wouldn't have ditched Lalu Yadav, but his ego got in the way
Some may say that they had foreseen Nitish Kumar’s departure from the mahagatbandhan (grand alliance) many months ago. Others suspect that this was being planned behind closed doors for a long time. Beyond the realms of speculation on why things unravelled the way they have, there is one clear fact that has emerged from this whole episode - the only voice that Nitish Kumar listens to is the voice of his ego.
In 2013, when his ego was challenged by the appointment of Narendra Modi as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, he broke the 17-year-old alliance with the BJP in Bihar (he was heading a eight-year-old coalition) and went solo.
In 2014, when he lost the battle of egos again during the Lok Sabha elections (Janata Dal (United) was routed in the General Elections), he stepped down from the post of chief minister. Unsure of his political capability to win an election, he needed a partner. More importantly, he was in a phase of politics where he needed someone to balm his ego. And Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Congress did exactly that.
Lalu Yadav buried all past bitterness and supported him for the post of chief minister, trying to convey again and again that he considered Nitish his brother, giving him the stature he yearned for.
If there is one truth in politics that has survived for centuries, it's that power changes people. And RJD’s revival and improved performance during the state elections was bound to change the chemistry between Nitish and Lalu. A year into the coalition, Lalu Yadav was seen as an alternative power centre in Bihar.
His son, Tejashwi Yadav, whom Nitish was meant to groom as a leader, discovered a voice of his own, often leading to clashes within and outside official meetings. His ego hurt again, Nitish Kumar did what he had done successfully before. Resign and use his "clean image" to claim a higher moral position.
The pace at which the new coalition has been ushered in has certainly left people surprised. The midnight meetings and the shifting time table of the oath-taking ceremony was surely a sign of the panic within. This hullabaloo also gave a chance to Tejashwi to prove himself as a politician. With Lalu Yadav away in Ranchi for his case, at 2 in the night, he led a march of the mahadatbandhan’s MLAs towards the governor’s house. This midnight march, although fruitless in terms of political outcomes, did a lot to solidify Tejashwi’s position within the party. On that night, one might say that he emerged as a leader, heir to Lalu Yadav’s legacy.
Some people might think that the Yadavs' power might shrink now, out of power and with the growing pressure from the CBI. On the contrary, Nitish's move has given the RJD what he had taken away from them through his "sushashan" agenda. It won’t be surprising to see the old Muslim-Yadav vote bank flocking back to the RJD.
Unlike before, Muslims are no longer comfortable with supporting the BJP in any form. It became clear as Ali Anwar, Rajya Sabha member from JD(U) and a leader from the pasmanda community, openly challenged Nitish's decision to go with BJP. This new revival might not be enough for the RJD to win an election on its own, but it certainly ensures that politically, they will be a force to reckon with in the years to come.
More importantly, what will be the consequence of this decision for Nitish himself and his party?
Nitish joined the mahagatbanthan because he knew he couldn’t win an election on his own vote base. Despite the governance agenda he has been flaunting, his vote base has been shrinking over the years. The section of the Yadavs who might have supported him in his first term went back to the RJD after two terms.
The MBCs and Mahadalits, for whom he launched many schemes, split when the Jitan Ram Manjhi episode took place. The lower OBCs have always fluctuated and there is a greater chance of them voting for either the BJP or the RJD than for the JD(U). The Muslims who supported him when he was "secular" are bound to abandon him now. The upper castes were always with the BJP, despite having a soft corner for Nitish's work. In terms of caste calculus, that leaves Nitish with only Kurmis, his main political base.
With BJP flexing its muscles and aggressively targeting the OBCs, there is no guarantee that they won’t split in case the BJP and the JD(U) decide to part ways.
In any case, the RJD and the BJP are bound to benefit from whatever has happened over the last few days.
Nitish Kumar would be hoping that it is here, that his work will pay off. The complete prohibition of alcohol, which has brought him much adulation from different sections of the society, might turn out to be fruitful. His popularity after the ban rose immensely, especially among women, and surely he would hope that some of that would convert into a faithful vote bank.
But politics is tricky, especially in Bihar and what seems like support might never realise into votes.
Nonetheless, for now Nitish will not be very worried. He has never allowed a second-tier leadership to grow within his party. It's him and then the rest.
In such a situation, one is unsure that he even wants to leave a political legacy for anyone, but himself. Whatever happens, as in everything else he does, he would remain the centre of his world and his politics.