Why Swabhiman Rally was a bittersweet triumph for Nitish Kumar
By roping in Congress president Sonia Gandhi to address the Swabhiman Rally on August 30 in Patna, and having RJD chief Lalu Prasad openly back his leadership of the grand alliance in Bihar, Nitish Kumar seems to have clearly made up for all the political clout he lost after snapping ties with the BJP in June 2013 - a move that led to his miserable loss in the last year’s Lok Sabha election. Notably, this was Sonia's first electoral campaign appearance with Nitish.
It was, however, a bittersweet triumph for Nitish, who had faced the ignominy of watching his party’s Lok Sabha tally slip to two from 20; resigned as Bihar chief minister to save face in May 2014; and then bowed down to Lalu to neutralise a revolt in the party in February this year, when he tried to return as the chief minister.
Now, less than two months before the crucial Assembly polls in Bihar, it was remarkable to see Nitish leading an anti-Modi pack, which is backed by Sonia, Lalu and Mulayam Singh Yadav, besides others. What further strengthens his position is the fact that unlike Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal — the only person with massive electoral success against the BJP - Nitish has no qualms stitching an alliance with the convicted Lalu and discredited Congress.
Unlike Delhi, Bihar is a bigger state, and we are staring at a bigger battle ahead for the anti-Modi forces in the country.
The acknowledgement of Nitish’s pivotal status was there for all to see at the rally. Sonia critised Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his "DNA" barb and showered praise on Nitish for Bihar’s progress. Lalu also applauded Nitish for his bold governance. Earlier, on July 25, the prime minister, during his first campaign rally at Muzaffarpur, had attacked Nitish's politics and said: "Iss aadmi kaa DNA hi kharab hai." (This man's DNA is poor.) Nitish, however, sensed an opportunity and used the prime minister's remark to his advantage, claiming that in questioning his DNA, Modi had questioned the DNA of all Biharis.
Then, to top off the political re-engineering efforts, senior Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Singh Yadav, who is the younger brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav, also backed Nitish at the rally, claiming that the electoral outcome in Bihar will be reverberated in Uttar Pradesh, as the state is scheduled for Assembly polls in 2017.
It was Sonia’s first public appearance with Nitish, whereas Lalu shared the Gandhi Maidan dais with Nitish after more than two decades, since addressing the Garib Maha Rally in the early 1990s. It was the same Gandhi Maidan where, in February 1994, Nitish had worked up his courage to address the Kurmi Chetna Rally, which marked the beginning of his separation from Lalu.
But for Nitish, the feel-good factor seems to end here with these acknowledgements and tough challenges begin. Though the three parties — Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Lalu’s RJD and Sonia’s Congress - succeeded to draw an impressive crowd to the Gandhi Maidan on Sunday, the only thing that the leaders missed was the one that mattered most: a spontaneous connection with the crowd.
Though both Nitish and Sonia generated some buzz during their speeches, the crowd, especially those at the periphery, remained unenthusiastic. It was Lalu, who succeeded in enlivening the listeners. But, though Lalu spoke at the end of the rally, almost in an unmistakable acknowledgement of his tallest stature in the grand alliance - his repeated calls to his castemen for unity only confirmed his insecurity.
It was clear that a possible desertion of Yadav voters, which constitute the single largest caste group in Bihar, weighed heavily on his mind.
"Those who call my regime 'jungle raj' are actually attacking you. Stay united and give them a strong reply,” Lalu said, betraying a sense of uncertainty over the loyalty of Yadav voters. Incidentally, the BJP had successfully created fissures in the RJD’s core vote bank during the Lok Sabha election. Now a year later, in the run up to the Bihar election, the BJP is making equally intense efforts to make a dent in the Yadav vote bank, which constitute nearly 14 per cent of Bihar’s electorate.
Even the prime minister has tried to win over the Yadavs by conveying that he belonged from the land of Dwarka, the home of Lord Krishna. Lalu's trusted lieutenant Ram Kripal Yadav had switched his loyalty to the BJP just before the Lok Sabha election. Ram Kripal, now a Union minister, had defeated Lalu's daughter Misa Bharti from the Pataliputra parliamentary seat. Now, Ram Kripal has teamed up with other senior BJP leaders from the Yadav community, including leader of opposition in the state Assembly, Nand Kishore Yadav, to poach on the Yadavs.
Lalu’s appeals clearly reflected that the RJD chief had not been able to push away his insecurities. Though Lalu might have also experienced a slight sense of unease and distaste for his insecurity in a potentially make-or-break election; he knew that making an appeal to his castemen was the only solution. Some of the Nitish loyalists could be unhappy at Lalu blatant caste-based politics, but it was better to have it happen now than later.
Though Lalu at the Swabhiman Rally was at best of his oratory — simultaneously entertaining listeners and castigating the BJP — he also ironically appeared as the only one among the Janata Parivar leaders who betrayed some nerves. On the other hand, Nitish managed to turn a new page in his riveting rivalry with Modi with an impressive show of strength.
It was also the first joint rally of the anti-NDA forces; and unlike the past, Nitish did not try to portray his opposition to Modi as an ideological conflict between secularism and communalism.
Instead, he based his stringent criticism on Modi's alleged attack on Bihar’s self-respect; and of course, on the prime minister’s unfulfilled promises. But, there is also a fear that like his earlier ideological positioning against Modi; the self-respect plank may also not yield desirable results. A freewheeling conversation with a group at the rally hinted that while Nitish may be hurt by Modi’s DNA remark; Bihar was not.
Notwithstanding Nitish's persistent efforts to evoke emotions and resurrect the hurt Biharis' self-respect, the issue has remained in a state of suspended animation. In the era of television news, almost everyone in Bihar has seen what Modi said about Nitish’s DNA; and understood what he possibly meant.
In terms of crowd and response, it is hard to compare the Swabhiman Rally with Lalu’s Parivartan Rally or Nitish’s Adhikar Rally or even with Lalu’s first Garib Maha Raila in March 1996 or the one Jayaprakash Narayan addressed in November 1974 against the Indira Gandhi government.
The 62-acre Gandhi Maidan is believed to have a capacity to accommodate around three lakh people. If you add the vacant patches, the maidan was almost half empty. The Swabhiman Rally clearly had a smaller attendance than Modi’s Hunkar Rally; but it was also the Grand Alliance's biggest political show in recent times.
It was also the first big show of unity by the JD(U), RJD and Congress against the BJP-led NDA, underlining their attempts to create a powerful block involving the regional forces in the company of the Congress to stop Modi’s juggernaut in the crucial Bihar Assembly polls.
But the crowd that congregated at Gandhi Maidan on Sunday was hardly the complete Bihar that lives in largely rural, geographically varied, culturally diverse and caste-ridden hinterland.
The political circumstances might have changed to the benefit of Nitish in the recent past, but it remains to be seen if these changes seen in the political world prove to be a pivotal twist of fate for Nitish. The jury is out.