Lok Sabha election 2019: Opposition's pre-poll nationwide grand alliance may prove counter-productive
There’s a narrow pathway for the Opposition to secure a majority in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. That route involves a split-mahagathbandhan strategy rather than a pre-poll nationwide grand alliance with ideologically inimical political parties, which could prove counter-productive.
For the Congress, a more sensible tactic would be to nurture two parallel pre-poll national alliances. The first would be a Congress-led UPA front comprising the Left, NCP, DMK, JD(S), RJD, NC and smaller parties. This shrunken UPA today accounts for around 75 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Poll maths
The second thread of the parallel grand alliance would comprise independent regional parties: SP, BSP, TMC, TDP and other smaller outfits. Together they account for 65-odd seats in the Lok Sabha.
The two strands of the UPA and the federal front, thus, today, command about 140 Lok Sabha MPs — far short of a majority.
What are their prospects to cross 272 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general election?
Consider first the qualitative argument.
If the two strands come together before the poll to form an octopus-like, hydra-headed front with several strong-willed leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav’s extended family, Lalu Prasad’s equally large family, Mayawati, K Chandrashekar Rao, Chandrababu Naidu, Sitaram Yechury and Sharad Pawar, an implosion can’t be ruled out.
However, if the two strands — UPA and the federal front — contest separately but with seat adjustments, coming together post-poll, their chances brighten.
Now consider the math.
If the Congress can’t breach the 100-seat mark in 2019, the UPA could end up with less than 130 seats notwithstanding the DMK’s likely sweep in Tamil Nadu.
Meanwhile, the federal front will depend on the SP, BSP and TMC to bring in the big numbers along with the TDP and smaller parties.
Thus, the federal front could end up with around 120 seats, adding up to 250 for the two alliances — tantalisingly short of 272 seats in a post-poll bid to form a non-NDA, mega-coalition government.
However, if the two groupings contest the 2019 Lok Sabha election with a pre-poll mahagathbandhan, they could damage their prospects further for two reasons.
First, it will be seen as a ‘Modi versus the Rest’ battle that may fit into the BJP’s electoral playbook.
Second, in key states (excluding UP) the mega-alliance partners could cannibalise each other’s votes.
Their joint seat tally may fall well below 250. Where does this leave the BJP-led NDA? In a quandary.
There’s little doubt that the BJP will be hit in Uttar Pradesh,Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Other weak spots are Haryana, Punjab and Delhi.
Neutral parties like the BJD, TRS and AIADMK (though fatally weakened) could burnish the NDA’s numbers but not by much. If the Congress-led UPA and federal fronts garner 230-250 seats between them and the neutrals hold 25-50 seats in balance, the BJP-led NDA will be left with barely 250-odd seats.
Hung Parliament
In a classically hung Parliament where two groupings have a similar number of seats and are each short of a parliamentary majority by a few dozen MPs, crossovers can take place. The most likely targets for the NDA are TRS in Telangana and YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh. They could deliver 20-25 seats between them and may well be amenable to a modus vivendi with the BJP.
What do these permutations mean for Rahul Gandhi?
Senior UPA leaders like the NCP’s Sharad Pawar, himself a dark horse for the top post, are unenthusiastic about Rahul as PM but can be persuaded. The real hurdles for Rahul lie within the federal front.
The BSP has blown hot and cold over Rahul as PM. Mayawati sacked the vice-president of her party, Jai Prakash Singh, for declaring: “Had Rahul Gandhi looked like his father (Rajiv Gandhi), he could have had a chance of success in Indian politics but he turned out like his mother (Sonia Gandhi), who is a foreigner. His blood is foreign. I can tell you with all surety that Rahul Gandhi can never succeed in Indian politics.”
Piecemeal alliance
Mayawati has kept her options open by refusing to do piecemeal alliance deals with the Congress.
In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot is confident of a go-it-alone victory.
In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh though, the Congress is keen on a seat-sharing alliance with the BSP to consolidate Dalit votes.
If push comes to shove, however, Mayawati will back Rahul as PM in return for plum posts once her party garners 20-odd Lok Sabha seats in UP, following an alliance with the SP and Congress.
With an eye on 2024, Rahul though is prepared to concede the prime ministership in 2019 to anyone from the federal front — Mamata, Mayawati or even a dark horse as long as Modi is kept out.
The BJP knows it will lose close to 50-70 seats in UP, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh.
It is banking on making up some of that loss in Odisha, the Northeast and West Bengal. If the BJP falls far short of 272, Modi would prefer a spell in the Opposition. The UPA and the federal front would then patch together 250-odd seats, form a minority government, quarrel over the prime ministership, and in less than two years collapse under the weight of their own contradictions.
In a 1996-98 redux, disenchanted voters would then elect the BJP back to power in 2021 with Modi returning as prime minister.
Don’t bank on it, but don’t rule it out either.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)