Orlando shooting can damage US presidential elections

The horrific terror attack on a gay club in Orlando, Florida, could cast a dark shadow over the 2016 US presidential election.

If the shooter's links to Islamist terrorism are confirmed beyond doubt, the attack could revive Donald Trump's floundering campaign and damage Hillary Clinton's.

Clinton is set to become the official Democratic Party nominee on Tuesday, June 14. That's when the last primary of the season in Washington, District of Columbia, gets over. In a choregraphed sequence, rival Bernie Sanders will concede defeat on the evening of June 14 and withdraw his candidature.

Anticipating these events, President Barack Obama on June 5 had already filmed a long emotive ad endorsing Hillary. It was aired though only after the California primary results on June 7. Sanders was given a back-patting visit to the White House the same day. An official statement of endorsement for Hillary by Obama followed hours later.

All this choreography took place on the afternoon Prime Minister Narendra Modi lunched with Obama at the White House after their joint statement and a day before Modi's speech to the joint session of Congress on June 8.

Meanwhile Donald Trump, the Republican party's presumptive nominee, is using the Orlando terror attack to burnish his tough-on-radical-Islam credentials.

But his campaign is under stress. Trump made an error that could diminish his chances of winning the presidency this November.

He attacked a federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, hearing a class action suit over allegations of fraud against Trump University. The ethnic slur has already led to a meltdown in Trump's poll numbers.

A Fox TV opinion poll three weeks ago had Trump leading Clinton 45-42 per cent in a head-to-head for the presidency. A new Fox TV poll released on Thursday, June 9, showed Trump slumping to 39 per cent while Hillary stayed steady at 42 per cent.

In America, a politician can get away with a lot of things, as Trump has done, but casting a racial slur isn't one of them. Senior Republican leaders who had endorsed him are withdrawing their endorsements - unprecedented in a presidential race.

House speaker Paul Ryan, who escorted Modi at his speech to Congress on June 8, has disavowed Trump's slur against Judge Curiel but protocol has compelled him to continue supporting his candidature.  

All this could change in the coming days if Florida mass shooter Omar Mateen is proved to have had close links with Islamist terrorism. That would fit right into Trump's playbook.

Meanwhile, the real estate tycoon could face more troubling allegations. In an investigative story published by USA Today late last week, hundreds of firms, contractors and even attorneys went on record to state that Trump regularly reneges on payments.

Astonishingly, Trump files legal suits or has suits filed against him on an average of over 100 a year - one case every three days.

Daughter Ivanka Trump, who looks after the company's day-to-day affairs, dismisses the charges as irrelevant because the Trump organisation "cuts thousands of cheques every month" and only holds back payments when work done by contractors - or even legal firms - is unsatisfactory.

All of this should play into Hillary's hands. Unfortunately for Clinton, she is disliked by even more voters than Trump.

Clinton's "unfavourable" rating in opinion polls is 61 per cent compared to Trump's 56 per cent. She is particularly disliked by middle-class white Americans, especially women, who regard her as untrustworthy.

Clinton is blamed for dereliction of duty in Benghazi, Libya, where terrorists killed US ambassador J Christopher Stevens on her watch as secretary of state in September 2012.

She is also held responsible for America's muddled Middle East policy during her tenure in 2009-13 which led to the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS).

If elected as president though, will Hillary be good or bad for India? She will continue most of Obama's foreign policies. The US has been complicit for decades with Pakistan over terrorism.

It has given billion of dollars in aid to Islamabad since 2001 and sold it advanced weaponry, ostensibly to fight terrorists but turning a blind eye when it is used by Pakistan to bolster its conventional military arsenal against India.

It's only in recent months that the US Congress has blocked subsidised sales of F-16 fighter jets to Islamabad and withheld financial aid.

The Obama administration though continues treating India as frontline fodder: terrorist attacks on Indians by Punjab-based Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) are tolerated.

Attacks by the Taliban on the US and NATO are not.

The Florida terror attack, the most lethal on American soil since 9/11, could however prove an inflection point in the way Washington deals with "good" and "bad" terrorists.

Hillary's warning to Pakistan that if you keep rattlesnakes in your backyard they'll eventually bite you has been largely ignored by Islamabad which revels in its rogue status - as nations that are beyond the pale tend to do.

Clinton will need to walk her rattlesnake talk with Pakistan or India's rapidly evolving relationship with the US on trade, technology, defence, cybersecurity and nuclear commerce will remain incomplete.  

Polarised election

The polarised US presidential election has driven Clinton to the centre-left. However, if she wins the presidency in November, she will likely shift back to the centre.

How good will her chemistry be with Modi compared to the Obama-Modi bonhomie?

Contrary to public perception, a certain formality has crept into the Obama-Modi relationship. The turning point came on January 27, 2015 when Obama made gratuitous remarks about religious tolerance in India just before he left Delhi for Saudi Arabia after Republic Day.

Hillary has many skeletons in the cupboard that puts her on the defensive when dealing with foreign leaders. The FBI investigation into her classified emails is one. 

Another particularly troublesome skeleton is allegations that swirl around large donations made by shady companies to the Clinton Foundation.

Modi will need to employ a nuanced approach with her - of the kind he used with the US Congress last week: India and the United States are natural partners, but don't take us for granted.

If, however, the tide turns and Trump recovers lost ground over Islamist terror fears that validate some of his rhetoric, he could pull off an upset win over Clinton.

Modi will have to deal with him in a more businesslike, transactional manner. That would fit right into Modi's own playbook.