Wagner coup halted for now, but no one quite knows what happens in Putin's Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin was facing one of the biggest threats during his 22-year rule as rebel mercenaries were advancing towards Moscow on Saturday (June 24). Everyone was talking about a coup as the Wagner group was just 200 km away from the Russian capital. But, in a surprising turn of events, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, ordered his mercenaries to halt their march.

Prigozhin revealed in an audio message that he has made the decision to turn his forces back. Prigozhin said that he wanted to avoid "shedding Russian blood" and has agreed to live in exile in Belarus.

No one knows what's going on in Russia

From the moment there were reports of the Wagner group taking control of Rostov-on-Don, a port city housing a Russian military outpost, and its plans of marching towards Moscow, there have been multiple theories. But no one exactly knows what is going on in Russia.

Even when Prigozhin's mercenaries were marching very close to Moscow, no one thought that Aleksandr Lukashenko would interfere and save the day for Putin. On Saturday morning, Lukashenko was reported to have left the country and that he avoided the Russian airspace. And in the evening, he had solved the crisis by successfully negotiating with Prigozhin to halt the movement of Wagner's troops, following discussions with Putin.

Even now, we are not sure why exactly did Prigozhin decide to move to Belarus and what will be his next move. The former British Army chief of general staff General Richard Dannatt on Sunday (June 25) said that Ukraine should bolster its defenses against a potential attack led by Wagner Prigozhin launched at Kyiv from Belarus. "The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern," the general told Sky News.

Why there is so much confusion over what is going on in Russia

The main reason why most of the world does not know what is going on in Russia is because of the absence of Western media in the country. Most of the major news organisations have no presence in Russia at the moment. And, since the war in Ukraine started, most of the news outlets in the country have been, or made to be a mouthpiece of the state.

The only information the rest of the world is getting is through some Telegram channels, including the Wagner chief's, and some Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) organisations giving constant updates on social media.

But there is no way to find out which information is reliable and which is not.

Memes on the situation in Russia

While the situation was escalating in Russia, and no one knew what was going to happen next, it led to many memes on social media.

Twitter boss Elon Musk joined the conversation sharing a meme on Twitter. Musk's tweet featured a split image where a sleeping girl had the caption, "How do girls sleep?" And the lower portion showcased a sleep-deprived man with caption: "How do boys sleep? - They don't. They are monitoring the situation with Wagner Coup."

pic.twitter.com/VHZpjEBcuS

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 24, 2023

Ukrainians also turned to humour on social media. Many popcorn memes were posted as Ukrainians watched the dramatic events in Russia. There has been a shortage of popcorns reported across Ukraine.

NATO prepares to airdrop more popcorn into Ukraine pic.twitter.com/na7gebvgvf

— Sputnik (@Sputnik_Not) June 24, 2023

Musk posted another meme on Twitter which said: "Don't even trust nobody."

Don’t even trust nobody pic.twitter.com/VHa1zVGI71

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 24, 2023

There was one meme which was shared many times which shows how a man who started with a catering business (Prigozhin) is now causing a civil war in Russia.

Some great memes coming out of the coup in Russia. What good ones have you seen? pic.twitter.com/BdZRpQNqG2

— Tom Raftery (@TomRaftery) June 24, 2023

What happens next?

The Russian control over the territories it occupied during the war in Ukraine was already weakening, and now, after the coup attempt by the Wagner chief, the situation could deteriorate further for Putin and his army.

Many are questioning Putin's leadership and speculating that he may not be the ruthless leader he portrays himself to be, suggesting that he has lost control following being completely outmaneuvered by Prigozhin.

However, this remains speculative. An alternate theory suggests that with Prigozhin's departure to Belarus, his 25,000 mercenaries are now under complete control of the Russian army, potentially improving their position in Ukraine.

While the coup attempt served as a wake-up call for Putin and his army, the chaos surrounding it also revealed that a coup might not be advantageous for Russia at this moment.

Nevertheless, the unfolding of events in Russia and the progress of the war in Ukraine remain uncertain.