Newspaper reports show govt ad openly lies on how demonetisation was a success
November 8, 2017 marked one year of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's radical move to demonetise 86 per cent of the currency in circulation. On the first anniversary of the note ban, almost all newspapers carried a government of India advertisement — with the PM's face on it — that read "125 crore Indians fought a decisive battle against black money and corruption... and won!"
After that it goes on to claim, "Demonetisation - a historic and multi-dimensional success". This is followed by four different columns highlighting different achievements of the move, the last one stating: "Big push towards formalisation. Better jobs for the poor." This essentially means our economy has now become more formal and has been successful in providing quality jobs to the underprivileged.
This full-page advertisement has been carried on page 5 of the The Indian Express' Delhi edition. Ironically, the same paper, on its front page, carried the headline: "Demonetisation anniversary: New numbers are in, 1.5 million jobs lost in January-April this year"
According to the report, fresh data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates that about 1.5 million jobs were lost between January and April 2017, even as employment data from leading listed companies show that a majority of them have seen a net decline in their recruitment numbers in 2016-17 compared to the previous years. The estimated total employment during January-April 2017 was 405 million as against the 406.5 million jobs in the preceding four months, September-December 2016.
The same report also refers to the quarterly Labour Bureau employment survey, which reflects a sharp decline in jobs after the government banned old notes. As many as 1.52 lakh casual and 46,000 part-time jobs were lost in eight key sectors of the economy from October-December 2016.
It further talks about how the flagship Skill India scheme or Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) has proved to be a colossal failure. Data for the PMKVY scheme until the first week of July 2017 has revealed that of the 30.67 lakh candidates who had been trained or were undergoing training across the country, less than one-tenth - 2.9 lakh candidates - received placement offers, according to official data with the ministry of skill development and entrepreneurship: this indicates less than 10 per cent of the candidates are getting jobs.
After examining the employment figures for the leading listed companies, the report sees a net decline in their employment numbers in 2016-17 over that in the previous years. The report, based on the study of 107 companies, says there has been a net decline of 14,668 employees. While the employee strength stood at 6,84,452 at the end of March 2015, it fell to to 6,77,296 at the end of March 2016 and then to 6,69,784 at the end of March 2017.
The same advertisement has appeared on page four of the Delhi Edition of The Times of India. One its page 12, a headline reads: "At a govt's job fair, MBAs aim for front desk, BAs OK to be guards".
The article relates to the Mega Job Fair organised by the Delhi government a day earlier. Some of the applicants, who had MBA and MCA degrees in hands, were there to see if they could get jobs as front office executives. Other graduates and postgraduates were prepared to become security guards. Some of the engineering graduates were ready to grab any opportunity available. This shows unemployment continues to haunt the educated youth and in that desperation they are willing to get any job.
The Modi government may claim that there are now "Better jobs for the poor" and that the situation has improved drastically after demonetisation but the ground reality, reflected in both reports, paints a totally different picture. The reality is that the job market is shrinking. Among the unemployed youth, the degree of desperation is so high that they are willing to grab any job. It would be better for the government, and also for the people, to accept the reality and take remedial measures rather than live in denial.