Covid can kill one million in China, says Hong Kong study

The tiff between China and Covid-19 is far from over, from new variants to protests against its Zero Covid norms, it doesn't seem to stop. Now, a new study claims that almost one million people in China may die due to Covid-19, as the government rapidly eases pandemic curbs. 

The report predicts that local health systems across all provinces in China would be unable to cope with the surge of Covid-19 cases posed by reopening, between December 2022 and January 2023.

What was the study about? 

The study, 'Modelling the adjustment of Covid-19 response and exit from dynamic zero-COVID in China', co-authored by Gabriel Leung, the former dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, was released yesterday, December 15. According to the study, a nationwide reopening can kill 684 people per million. Going by China's population, the total death toll could be 964,400, Bloomberg reported. 

What are the reasons for China's Covid? 

• The study claims that one of the major reasons for the spread of Covid-19 is the absence of a nationwide vaccine campaign.   
• The efficiency of Chinese vaccines: Chinese companies Sinovac and Sinopharm have made the country two main Covid-19 vaccines, both of which have been approved by the World Health Organization.
• WHO says the Sinovac vaccine is about 50% effective and Sinopharm is 78% effective.
• Dr Abhisheel Das (MBBS), from Kolkata, explains to DailyO that the low efficiency of the vaccines has resulted in a lack of herd immunity among people. 

• Low elderly vaccination rate: Even though China recently sped up its vaccination process among the elderly, the numbers still remain low.
• Bloomberg reports that only 69% of those aged 60 and above and 40% of 80-year-olds and above in China have had booster shots as of November 29. 

• Vaccine hesitancy: NPR reports that Chinese people have deep-seated vaccine hesitancy. Many are suspicious of the product quality given China's reputation for manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. 

Despite the issues, the study says proper management and vaccination can prevent a disaster.

Read More: Rising Covid cases in China may result in dangerous coronavirus variants. Should you be worried?

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