10 reasons why BJP won Uttar Pradesh election
Almost 15 years ago, on March 8, 2002, BJP's Rajnath Singh was evicted as Uttar Pradesh's chief minister.
In the 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP got 88 seats and 20 per cent votes, following which its political graph went downhill.
A decade later, in 2012, the BJP got only 47 seats and 15 per cent votes. It was placed at a distant third position. By any yardstick, for a party to get more than 30 per cent votes and absolute majority in few years is spectacular.
And for the winning BJP, it's matter of great pride to get back to power in India's most populous state after a gap of 15 years.
Let's have a look at the factors that led to its victory:
1. Modi's leadership
Narendra Modi's leadership has transformed the BJP. It's no more the BJP of 2012. Today's BJP is aggressive and assertive.
 |
| The charisma of the prime minister, when added to the well-oiled BJP organisational machinery, works like magic. Photo: PTI |
Apart from his leadership skills, the attribute that sets him apart is his oratory. PM Modi makes an instant connection with his audiences.
The charisma of the prime minister, when added to the well-oiled BJP organisational machinery, works like magic.
After 2014, it has worked in many states. In UP too, brand Modi has paid rich electoral dividends.
2. State leadership
The first masterstroke of BJP president Amit Shah in Uttar Pradesh was to pick up the relatively unknown Keshav Prasad Maurya as state unit head.
He belongs to the Kushwaha-Maurya caste. It is one of the largest backward castes in UP, the others being Yadav, Kurmi and Lodh.
This has helped the party replicate Kalyan Singh's formula of giving leadership to Non-Yadav OBCs and add it to their core upper caste vote.
3. Social engineering
Confident of the support of upper caste Thakur and Brahmin voters, who make up around 19 per cent of the state's population, the BJP focused on social engineering.
The BJP has fielded around 170 non-Yadav and non-Jat OBC candidates from different castes like Lodh, Rajbhar, Saini, Gujjar, Shakya, Maurya, Dhankar, Nishad and Kevats.
Non-Yadav and non-Jat OBCs account for around 22 per cent of the state's population, yet 27 per cent of the BJP's candidates were from this caste.
This vote bank seems to have gravitated towards the BJP.
4. Successful alliance
The BJP made an alliance with Apna Dal (S) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP).
Purvanchal and central Uttar Pradesh have a sizeable Patel Kurmi population. Apna Dal represents them.
The SBSP represents' Rajbhars who are one of 17 extreme backward classes in UP and constitute 18 per cent of the population in eastern UP.
This has helped the BJP successfully counter the BSP's and SP's social alliance in eastern UP.
5. Tactical campaigning
The BJP's posters had just six faces. They were Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Keshav Prasad Maurya, Rajnath Singh, Uma Bharti and Kalraj Mishra. All four state leaders were carefully chosen.
Two of them belong to the upper caste and two are non-Yadav OBCs. They represent BJP's social engineering formula. Star campaigners were deployed in the areas after minute study of the social formation of the area.
For example, Rajnath Singh has campaigned in Thakur-dominated areas and Kalraj Mishra in Brahmin-dominated areas. This seems to have facilitated the BJP's bid to attract voters.
6. Strategic import of leaders
By bringing in BSP's leaders like Brajesh Pathak, Swamy Prasad Maurya and RK Maurya, the BJP has severely damaged Mayawati's 2007 winning mantra of Brahmin-Dalit and non-OBC coalition formula.
It has also brought former UP Congress chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi and many others under its fold.
In places where it was weak, leaders from other parties where imported.
7. Hindutva
The BJP hasn't given a single ticket to any Muslim in the entire state. Above that there were few polarising comments made.
During the election campaign, Modi said, “Agar gaon mein kabristan hai, toh shamshan ghat bhi hona chahiye. Agar Ramzan pe bijli milti hai, to Diwali pe bhi milni chahiye... (if there is a graveyard in the village, then there should be a cremation ground too; if electricity is freely available during Ramzan, then it should be freely available during Diwali too).”
Amit Shah too made a polarising comment: “Uttar Pradesh ki janata is baar ke chunav mein is Kasab se mukti paa le. Kasab se mera matlab kuch aur mat nikaliyega. Kasab se mera matlab hai — KA se Congress, SA se Samajwadi Party aur B se BSP (In this election, people of U.P. should get rid of Kasab... Do not take any other meaning when I say Kasab. What I mean by KASAB is — KA for Congress, SA for Samajwadi Party and B for BSP).”
This too seems to have helped.
8. Failure of SP-Congress alliance
A total of 105 seats were given to Congress by the Samajwadi Party. Many think it was much more than it deserved. There was also a friendly fight between the two parties in at least 13 seats.
Other than Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh campaigning together, there was little cohesion between the two cadres on the ground.
SP cadres believe that Congress was not able to effectively transfer its votes to SP candidates.
9. Anti-incumbency against Akhilesh
As chief minister of Gujarat, Modi would drop more than one-third of his party MLAs in successive elections. It has always worked. But in UP, Akhilesh renominated almost all of his sitting MLAs.
This seems to have worked against SP. The CM's factional fight with Mulayam and Shivpal may have earned him some pro-incumbency appeal, but there are reports that his uncle spoiled the party's chances in few seats.
10. Not nominating a CM candidate
It was argued that the BJP has repeated its Bihar blunder in UP by not nominating a chief-ministerial candidate. Contrary to that, as results show, it has helped the BJP in UP.
All caste groups associated with it have worked wholeheartedly for the party in the hope that it may choose a chief-ministerial candidate from his caste.