Why Modi-Adityanath's reputation is at stake in Phulpur by-poll
Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and his deputies Keshav Prasad Maurya and Dinesh Sharma are set to become members of the UP Assembly through the state legislative council route. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on August 30, announced their nomination along with that of two other candidates for the UP legislative council by-poll to be held on September 15.
It is mandatory for the chief minister and state ministers to become members of either of the two Houses in the UP Assembly within six months of assuming office. Adityanath and his deputies took charge on March 19, and have to become legislators by September 19.
The BJP rode a massive wave to victory in the UP Assembly polls held in March. The crushing mandate saw BJP win 324, SP-Congress 55, and BSP and others 24 seats. Yet, the top three in the BJP-ruled state government were picked from outside as none of them had contested the Assembly polls. The other two nominated for the by-poll - ministers Swatantra Dev Singh and Mohsin Raza - are also not members of either House in UP Assembly.
The nomination of Keshav Maurya for a seat in the council ends the speculation that he may be inducted in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's council of ministers and retain his Lok Sabha seat.
The BJP was abuzz with murmurs that due to his differences with CM Adityanath, the top brass would shift him to Delhi.
On August 22, the Election Commission (EC) had set in motion the process for filling up four vacant UP Legislative Council seats by issuing the notification for the by-polls.
While the BJP has announced that Mohsin Raza would be the fifth nominee, the notification for the by-poll to the fifth vacant seat in the UP legislative Council is expected on August 31.
By deciding to send the top three to the Upper House through the indirect route, the BJP has ensured that the Uttar Pradesh top brass doesn't have to get into the sweaty business of contesting elections to becoming MLAs. The BJP has also left no room for discontent and heartburn that it may have witnessed had few sitting MLAs been asked to vacate their seats to field the big guns.
Significantly, with this, Adityanath will be the third successive chief minister, after Akhilesh Yadav (SP) and Mayawati (BSP), to opt to be a member of the Upper House.
The BJP, it seems, was working behind the scenes to create a safe route for its top state functionaries. The four seats for which by-polls are being held were vacated by MLCs Bukkal Nawab, Yashwant, Sarojini Agarwal and Ashok Bajpai - all members of the SP. Another seat fell vacant when Thakur Jaivir Singh, an ex-BSP MLC joined BJP.
In its quest to send its leaders to the Assembly, the BJP may have avoided a big showdown with the Opposition, which has shown an urgency to unite.
But once Adityanath and Maurya join the Assembly, they will resign from the Lok Sabha, making the contest fiercer and loaded in symbolism.
With Yogi Adityanath as the CM, the Gorakhpur seat - despite the negative publicity that the death of more than 60 children at the city's BRD hospital has generated - is not much of a worry for the BJP. It is Phulpur that will see a Kurukshetra-style contest play out.
The possibility of the Opposition testing itself in Phulpur is definite. A senior Congress leader told India Today: "We are working for an united Opposition candidate. The Phulpur seat verdict can be the start of the decline of the Modi wave in UP."
Speculation is rife that the Congress wants a big show of Opposition unity for the seat - and this may involve not just prominent UP players but also parties like the RJD and the JDU (the Sharad Yadav faction), as well as the Left and TMC from West Bengal.
A recent post on Twitter showing Mayawati with several Opposition leaders, including bête noir Akhilesh Yadav, triggered a buzz that the BSP was not averse to a joint contest.
Some Opposition leaders planning to make Phulpur a test case are keenly pursuing the possibility of fielding Mayawati as a joint candidate.
However, BSP sources say Mayawati has her reservations. She resigned from the Rajya Sabha seat in the last session of Parliament and there is little chance she will return to the Upper House of Parliament without rival SP's support.
Becoming a joint candidate for Mayawati is tricky business.
She has avoided sharing political space with any party in UP to ensure her position as an alternative and strong claimant to the Dalit and minority vote.
Joining hands with other Opposition parties may lead to demands by these parties especially in 2019 for alliances and seat sharing.
That's the reason why despite her rout in the 2014 LS polls and her recent resignation fro RS she didn't jump at Lalu Yadav's offer to field her as an Upper House candidate from Bihar.
Also, with Adityanath and BJP president Amit Shah managing the party's UP show, Mayawati is said to be uncertain of her chances of winning.
The SP, on the other hand, is divided over the joint candidate issue. Party patriarch Mulayam Yadav - like his archenemy Mayawati - doesn't want to allow others, including the Congress, to regain ground and is saying no.
But his son Akhilesh, still smarting from the 2017 Assembly elections loss, is said to be open to the idea to salvage some pride.
Meanwhile, sources close to the former UP CM say that the chances of Akhilesh coming to a consensus over any other candidate than Mayawati are higher.
For the BJP, Phulpur will be a Waterloo, no less.
The contest will not only test the Modi wave but also the caste arithmetic that the BJP claimed had helped it win Uttar Pradesh emphatically earlier this year.
BJP had attributed its win to support from the most backward castes. Maurya, the deputy CM is from this section and the party will expect that his elevation will be perceived as a signal to the voters who are the poorest of poor in the state.
The BJP is also aware that the Opposition will call the result a referendum on Adityanath and Modi government's performance if the party loses Phulpur. And that is why the BJP is expected to show its might in the contest.