Why the war within AIADMK is far from over
Minutes after the ruling AIADMK was recognised by the Election Commission as the real AIADMK on Thursday, O Panneerselvam and Edappadi Palaniswami were at the party office, distributing and eating sweets. Colleagues flashed smiles, making the party look picture-perfect.
Less than 48 hours later, the cookie crumbled. At the MGR centenary function in Madurai on Saturday, the first major event since the victory at Nirvachan Sadan, EPS much to the surprise of many, made it a solo show. The plan as many in the party saw it was to showcase party unity and exult at having shown TTV Dhinakaran and Sasikala group its place. Taken aback at the snub, the OPS camp went public with its disapproval, pointing out that no invites were extended to any of its members, including the deputy chief minister.
"It is disheartening to hear that OPS was not invited to the event," said OPS confidant, Rajya Sabha MP V Maitreyan, making it a point to emphasise that it was his faction that was instrumental in retrieving the two leaves symbol for the party. The symbol was frozen after OPS split from the party in February and only after the merger three months back, the EPS-OPS factions came together to pitch for the symbol.
Why the insult was too apparent is because OPS as the party coordinator, heads the AIADMK and EPS is his deputy in the party, a reversal of roles from the government. Madurai was the chief minister's way of showing OPS who the boss with the real power is. What is likely to unravel in the next few days and weeks, is the coming apart of an uncomfortable marriage of convenience between the EPS and OPS camps that was virtually forced on them by Delhi.
What is Palaniswami's game plan? The chief minister reckons that he has emerged as the winner in the battle to get the two leaves symbol. His government, even though numerically in a minority with only 111 MLAs, according to the Election Commission, has gained legitimacy as a result of the EC decision. He has now swiftly with the help of his loyalists in the cabinet, moved on to the next course of action - show Panneerselvam his place and let him know that he cannot see himself as an equal in the AIADMK.
This, in Palaniswami's scheme of things, is necessary because the deputy CM is deemed to be more popular than EPS. By virtue of having revolted against Sasikala, OPS is seen to have a halo over his head, even though it has considerably diminished in the last 10 months, more so after he patched up with the government blessed by the same Mannargudi clan.
The AIADMK also has always been a one-leader party. EPS, obviously imagines that having wrested the symbol just like Jayalalithaa did after MGR's death in 1987, he is the claimant to her political legacy. Panneerselvam is an irritant in that path and Team Palaniswami that includes the likes of revenue minister RB Udhayakumar, has decided to sideline OPS.
What EPS is banking on is the fact that he has both the symbol and the government now. OPS, despite the goodwill for him and the support from Delhi, could not manage to wean away more than a dozen MLAs from the ruling camp. Though there are whispers that OPS could launch a dharmayuddham 2.0, his supporters need to remember that sequels are usually made only for a successful campaign, not a venture that faded out after a major box-office opening.
Once Team OPS protested, a concession was made in the form of a plaque that carried Panneerselvam's name as well. This relation would suit EPS, for it will position him in the role of someone who can mollify by throwing some crumbs, if the OPS group makes a noise. At the same time, Panneerselvam and company would come across as egoistic leaders, hankering after being given importance and positions of authority.
What can OPS really do now? On the Tamil Nadu political chessboard, it is obvious he has been outmanoeuvred by EPS. He has few options, one of them being not to put in his 100 per cent in the RK Nagar bypoll campaign. Jayalalithaa's erstwhile constituency goes to polls on December 21 and the pressure will be on EPS to ensure a victory. If the CM cannot ensure a win even with the symbol, the knives will be out.
The other option for OPS is to mount pressure on EPS to accommodate more members of his team in the cabinet. Barring OPS, who got the twin posts of party coordinator, and deputy CM and K Pandiarajan, who was taken into the ministry, none of the other OPS team members got any share in the power cake. Already Maitreyan has gone public stating that even though the merger has taken place, the hearts are not in sync. December 2017, like the same month last year, promises to be eventful. The AIADMK saga is anything but over.