As the Delhi battle ends, Bihar begins

The battle for Delhi has not yet been decided, but the tanks have already begun to roll into the next electoral battlefield. CM Jitan Ram Manjhi has rebelled against his mentor and former CM Nitish Kumar. His aggression is being backed from behind the scenes by the BJP, which is bent on ensuring that Nitish Kumar does not get to occupy the CM's post. So what is the strategy of the key players in Bihar politcs and what is likely to happen next? we take you inside Bihar's political maze.

Decoding the key players and their strategies

Nitish Kumar

• He hopes to cash in on BJP's troubles in Delhi and re-occupy CM's chair
• Calculates BJP's attention currently focused on Delhi results
• Realises decision to appoint Manjhi as CM has backfired
• Wants to assure voters there's no clash between JD(U) and RJD over who will be CM 

Jitan Ram Manjhi

• Is being propped up by BJP
• Rallying anti-Nitish forces in JD(U)
• Playing the victimised dalit card
• Hopeful of staying on as CM with BJP support 

Amit Shah

• Wants to prevent Nitish from returning as CM at all cost
• Is in touch with disgruntled elements in JD(U)
• Promising senior JD(U) leaders tickets if they defect
• Willing to back Manjhi as CM

Lalu Prasad

• Realises secular forces will sink if Manjhi remains CM
• Willing to back Nitish for top post
• Wants daughter Misa appointed deputy CM
• Acknowledges Nitish is best option as CM face for secular forces if they have to stop Modi

Bihar Assembly Party Position

What next in Bihar

Four possible scenarios

1. Nitish forms secular front government

Manjhi accepts Nitish's leadership

JD(U) 110 + RJD 24 + Congress 5+ CPI 1 = 140

2. Jitan Ram Manjhi refuses to resign

No confidence motion is brought against cm

Gets a chance to prove majority on the floor of house

Outcome will depend on JD(U) defections and BJP support

3. Jitan Ram Manjhi dissolves assembly

Manjhi calls cabinet meeting

Cabinet recommends dissolution of house

Since Manji is leader of the house, his recommendation is binding

Governor dissolves assembly seven months ahead of its term 

4. Jitan Ram Manjhi forms government with BJP's support

If Manjhi gets written consent from at least 20 JD(U) Mlas beside 24 JD(U) rebels

Manjhi can reach magic figure of 117

Here's how: Defectors from jdu 44 + BJP 87 = 131

Who's supporting Manjhi?        

• Brishin Patel, HRD Minister     
• Nitish Mishra, Rural Development Minister        
• Narendra Singh, Agriculture Minister       
• Mahachandra Singh, PHED Minister        
• Samrat Chaudhary, Urban Development Minister        
• Jai Kumar Singh, Co-operative Minister        
• Rebel JD(U) Mlas Gyanendra Singh Gyanoo, Ravindra Rai and Poonam Devi         
• JD(U) Mla from Tekari Anil Kumar, who comes from Manjhi's home district of Gaya, also expressed support to Manjhi. 

Those who want to oust Manjhi? -         

• Rajiv Ranjan Singh 'lallan', Road Construction Minister         
• P K Shahi, Environment and Forest, Planning and Development Minister         
• Ramai Ram, Transport Minister   
• Shyam Rajak, Food and Civil Supplies Minister