Is it the end of Congress in Assam?

The old warhorse Tarun Gogoi who attempted a fourth term as Assam chief minister tried putting up a brave face till Thursday morning though his body language said it all; he had conceded defeat.

A long innings in politics well fought and sustained though at the end the Congress love for dynastic rule cost him another term. He was adamant about putting his son Gaurav Gogoi an MP ahead of his best man Himanta Biswa Sarma who switched over to the BJP claiming to have strategised the emphatic win for the BJP in Assam.

Several Congress ministers have lost and so have all the candidates who were given tickets because they were related to one Congress minister or other.

Also read - BJP and what it does with its core values

So who will take over from the ageing and tired Gogoi? Gaurav is not ready yet neither will people accept him. Gogoi systematically did not allow a second rung to come up taking down the party with him. The traditional "Ali-Cooli-Bangali" Congress vote bank had eroded long back with the Bengali Hindu votes divided and a significant section of the Muslim votes drawn to the AIUDF. This year the "Coolie" or the tea garden community (that has strength of 60 lakhs) may have deserted the Congress too.

But it was slightly more than just this arithmetic; the utter failure to deliver on promises and a viable alternative with clarity provided by the BJP alliance was the nemesis for Gogoi.

Assam has the country's worst maternal mortality ratio and a very poor infant mortality rate. Several development indices and most health indicators are abysmally bad. His promise of 65,000 jobs was not met with. He laid far too many foundation stones during his reign (3,000 reportedly) but there is not much as evidence of anything substantial.

Also read - Rahul Gandhi and Gaurav Gogoi ensured Congress defeat in Assam

Gogoi failed to bring to justice the perpetrators of the "secret killings" a very sensitive issue in the state on which he rode to power.

Finally, it was Gogoi's politics of deception that exposed him in front of an electorate repeatedly betrayed by their choice of government.

It is surely "farewell Gogoi" but could it also be farewell to the Congress in a state that was considered to be one of the party's last bastions?

Is the monolith Muslim vote a myth in Assam?

One of the most written about features of this election was the rise of Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF seen as a party protecting minority rights and playing the kingmaker. He disappointed even himself!

But in Assam, the "who is the minority" discourse has led to decades of bloodshed and identity politics. Every ethnic group feels threatened by other but the perception of a threat against the so called "illegal migrant from Bangladesh" collectively may have helped a local alliance led by the BJP with a chief ministerial candidate from an indigenous tribal community that went beyond ethnic cleavages.

Almost a throwback to the '70s, one would imagine but political scientists may differ; the Muslim in Assam is not a monolith. It may have the country's second highest Muslim population with a third of the state's people.

Also read - 4 reasons why BJP mustn't celebrate Assam victory just yet

But it is important to differentiate the many Muslims in the state; Muslim-Axomiya (also called Goriya, Tholua or Khilonjia), Bengali speaking or Bhotia, up-country or Juluha (from UP and Bihar), and immigrant Muslims, referred to as Miya.

It would be incorrect and politically dangerous to refer to all these communities as "the other" or "the immigrant". The first mention of Muslims in Assam can be found in Ibn-Batuta's Rehla in the 12th century.

There is physical evidence of Muslim settlements in north Guwahati from the early 13th century. The BJP did well either through design or by accident not to play into Ajmal's politics lest they polarise all the Muslims. That may have worked.

But will Ajmal and the AIUDF survive? Certainly, given that a large chunk of Muslims would now be worried and he could exploit that situation.

Who is Sarbananda Sonowal and how did the BJP get it right in choosing him?

Sarbananda Sonowal may not be the charismatic former student leader or even a communicator like Himanta Biswa Sarma now BJP's political manager in the state but he has solid credentials for a state where demography and identity have provided the political landscape for the last 35 years.

It was Sonowal's challenge to the discriminatory IMDT (Illegal Migration Determination by Tribunal) Act applicable only for Assam that lends credence to his otherwise lacklustre political career. The Act was scrapped and that helped his rise. He joined the BJP only in 2011 but managed to grab a ministerial post in Delhi.

The BJP's choice of Sonowal's as the chief ministerial candidate was a masterstroke; he is now the first indigenous tribal chief minister in a state where identity is paramount. He was a student leader that stormed the state wresting power in the '80s and was later the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) legislator.

Also read - 5 reasons Assam voted for BJP

His image of the man who challenged the IMDT and his profile brought back the memories from the agitation. This may have just scripted the return of the AGP who managed to win significant numbers. Most had written them off.

Sonowal also marks the departure of a BJP resting on Modi alone. Now they have a tested strategy and a better one at that where local leaders can lead the campaign. In the east, the BJP is perceived as a "north Indian party". Hence, the selection of locals and delegating responsibility to them dispels that sense.

At the end everything seems to have worked well for the BJP alliance but does that mean better governance?

I could stick my neck out and say, I doubt!