Declaring CM candidate before Bihar polls will go against BJP
The BJP in Bihar faces one critical question - that of its chief ministerial candidate - and the party would do well to keep the issue ambiguous given the delicately poised relationships within the NDA it heads, the party's own caste equations and success of this strategy in the past Assembly polls. With elections likely to be announced on September 9, the BJP cannot afford a goof-up.
Senior BJP leader and Union home minister Rajnath Singh's remarks that the party's parliamentary board "will decide whether to project anyone as chief ministerial candidate or not" has created speculation which is unnecessary.
Among the five states that have gone to polls since the BJP's triumph in the Lok Sabha election, the party has scored an outright victory in Haryana and finished numero uno in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. It finished close behind the People's Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir. It has chief ministers in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and a deputy chief minister in Jammu and Kashmir creating history for itself. In all these states there were no chief ministerial candidates and Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the party's engine of victory.
The only place where the BJP changed its strategy and floundered badly was Delhi. The party projected former IPS officer Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate days before the polls and the move backfired. Bedi could not win even her own seat from a BJP stronghold and the party finished with merely three seats to the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party's 67. It was a loss of face not only for Modi but also BJP president Amit Shah.
Bihar, of course, is no Haryana, Maharashtra or Jharkhand. The BJP has a powerful adversary in chief minister Nitish Kumar who seeks to match Modi word for word and immediately rebuts all his allegations. But the situation does not warrant the BJP to take an unnecessary risk and deviate from a strategy that it has successfully tested earlier.
If the BJP has learnt any lessons from its Delhi experience, it will not project any one as the chief ministerial candidate in Bihar too. Modi has held four successful rallies as part of party's Parivartan yatra. His aggressive campaign has forced the rivals to unite and form an anti-BJP grand alliance. Chief minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) stitched the "maha gathbandhan" with friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad's RJD, Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP and Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP, though the last two pulled out of the grand alliance feeling humiliated over the seat-sharing formula.
The BJP is at the least equally poised or may even be having an edge over its rivals at the present juncture. Compared with the Delhi polls, it is in a much more comfortable position in Bihar. The party will only upset this equilibrium by announcing a chief ministerial candidate.
First, it is now too late in the day to announce a candidate. Second, the BJP does not have a leader who can match either Nitish or Lalu's stature in the state. Announcing a chief ministerial candidate at this stage will only aggravate factionalism in the state unit of the BJP. There are several factions in the party - upper castes versus backwards and further divisions even among the upper castes and the backwards, Dalits and Mahadalits.
For instance, if former deputy chief minister and apparently the tallest figure in BJP's state unit, Sushil Modi, is projected as the chief ministerial candidate, he would be opposed tooth and nail not only by the upper caste leaders like Union minister Giriraj Singh, but also by the Yadav leaders like leader of opposition in the state Assembly Nand Kishore Yadav. Sushil Modi's ascension will also be opposed on two counts - the prime minister will be accused of indulging in casteism - both being Modis. Moreover, Sushil Modi is considered quite close to Nitish. Even Narendra Modi hinted at Sushil Modi's proximity to the Bihar chief minister. While kicking off the Parivartan Rally in Muzaffarpur on July 25, Modi accused Nitish of "ditching" close associates like George Fernandes, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Sushil Modi. The controversial "Iss aadmi kaa DNA hi kharab hai" (This man's DNA is poor) remark was made in this context.
Even if the BJP manages to contain dissension within, its alliance partners like Union consumer affairs minister Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Union minister of state for human resource development Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and former Bihar chief minister Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha will raise banners of revolt.
Just like several claimants to the chief minister's post within the BJP, even all the alliance partners - Paswan, Manjhi and Kushwaha - have asserted their right for the top job in the state in case the NDA comes to power. Internal bickering has already come out in the open with Manjhi and Paswan trading insults. While Paswan reportedly said Manjhi was in the NDA on a trial basis, the latter questioned his credentials among Dalits and even alleged that he was indulging in "family-centric politics".
While there will be problems galore in going to the polls with a chief ministerial face, there will no dissension if the BJP-led NDA comes to power in Bihar with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the face. Any leader chosen by him - as was the case in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana - will be acceptable to all.