Lalu-Nitish are not easy foes. How Modi-Shah can lose in Bihar
The great state Assembly poll battle has just begun in Bihar. Hardly had the Bharatiya Janata Party sounded its poll bugle at party president Amit Shah’s rally at the Gandhi Maidan in Patna when Rashtriya Janata Dal president Lalu Prasad and chief minister Nitish Kumar announced merger of their parties into a united Samajwadi front headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The merger is being dismissed by the BJP as the last-ditch bid by rank opportunists. Shah has gone to the extent of dubbing it as a union of two zeroes. But this has certainly changed the political scenario in poll-bound Bihar, if not elsewhere. At least the merger has made it imperative for the BJP to rework its strategies on its mission to capture Bihar. Relying on the charisma of Modi, the party had set an ambitious target of 185 seats in the 243-member House before Lalu and Nitish had decided to reunite. But now, the BJP will have pull out all stops to attain its goal in the upcoming polls.
Lalu and Nitish are the poll battle-scarred veterans who have dominated state politics for the past 25 years. If they have joined forces in spite of their acrimonious past, they must have their reasons. Among other things, they might have thought that they would not be able to halt the BJP’s winning juggernaut without forging unity in Bihar. Statistics of the last General Elections and the benefits of caste polarisation may also have played on their minds when they initiated steps to merge their parties.
The BJP, therefore, has a task cut out for the upcoming Bihar elections. The party has to realise it is up against redoubtable opponents who are unambiguous about their sole objective to prevent it from capturing power.
As of now, the BJP appears to be banking on three factors to tilt the poll balance in its favour. Firstly, it is trying to mobilise public opinion by harping on Lalu’s tainted past and his track record of bad governance. It is also harping on the lawless days of the 15-year-long RJD regime while reminding people that Nitish has joined hands with somebody who was responsible for the dreaded "jungle raj" in Bihar. Secondly, the BJP is making a big noise about Nitish’s "great betrayal".
The BJP has been telling people how Nitish had violated the overwhelming mandate for the NDA government in the 2010 Assembly polls. It also wants to prove that Nitish failed to provide good governance in the wake of his split with the BJP. Thirdly, it is eyeing Nitish’s Mahadalit vote bank accusing him of having insulted former CM Manjhi by sacking him. But the BJP must assess the impact of a negative poll campaign. Given its experience in the Delhi polls earlier this year, it would do well to focus on its plus points rather than concentrating only on its rivals. The BJP has to focus on the development factor to woo voters instead of talking about the return of jungle raj. It should drive home the message that a BJP government will do wonders for the state when Modi happens to be PM.
The BJP’s think-tank needs to understand a negative campaign against Lalu and Nitish may be counterproductive. After all, state poll results in 1995, 2000 and February 2005 bear testimony to the fact that the fears of jungle raj had not turned the electorate decisively against Lalu. It was the hope for development offered by Nitish and the BJP in November 2005 that led the people to oust Lalu from power in Bihar.
The BJP’s campaign should revolve around what it can do for Bihar, and not what others have done to the state.