BJP is looking nervous in Bihar
After the completion of the second phase of polling in Bihar, reports came that the Bharatiya Janata Party has cancelled three rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi scheduled for October 16 in Bihar. The rallies were slated to be held in Buxar, Hajipur and Paliganj. However, the BJP denied cancelling any of PM's rallies. But this didn't stop opponents from saying that the BJP is worried and the wind is blowing in favour of the Grand Alliance. And the BJP wants to give minimum exposure to the PM because a defeat now would be a personal embarrassment to him. No one will know for sure if the rallies were cancelled or not. But several changes in the strategies of the BJP can be seen on the ground. Few are apparent and few are inferred.
Let's sample a few of them.
No more Yadav engineering
According to the CSDS post poll survey, 19 per cent Yadav voters voted for the BJP in 1984. But in the first two phases of elections, the BJP has realised that all its attempt to dent the Yadav vote bank of Lalu Yadav has boomeranged. The community has consolidated around the RJD leader and the Mahagathbandhan. The daily references to Lalu's “jungle raj” and calling him a “chara chor” (fodder thief) appear to have not only united the Yadavs, but have also made them aggressive against the BJP. The NDA, though, has more than 20 Yadav candidates, whom it fielded (out of 28) to fall back on in the remaining three phases. But the party seems to be convinced that there is no point wasting time on them. Prominent Yadav leaders like Ram Kripal Yadav, Bhupendra Yadav and Nand Kishore Yadav have been reportedly made to play second fiddle in the campaigns.
Focus on Dalits and EBCs
The Dalits and EBCs account for around 50 per cent of the voters in Bihar, and they can tilt the balance in BJP’s favour in the remaining 162 seats in the next three phases. After it failed to bring the Yadavs to its fold, BJP has now decided to project the leaders from these communities. On October 20, Amit Shah held his first press conference in Patna and he surprised many by having former minister Prem Kumar seated on his side. Kumar belongs to an EBC caste. Apart from him, Manjhi and Paswan are also getting special place in BJP's reworked scheme.
New posters and slogan
The BJP had so far been banking on Narendra Modi’s charisma while splashing the state with his huge cutouts and posters, along with Amit Shah’s. Now faces on the posters and hoardings have changed. On the busy Dak Bunglow roundabout in Patna, a new billboard displays faces of senior state BJP leaders like Sushil Modi, CP Thakur and Ashwani Choubey. And most surprising is that the pictures of both the star campaigners, i.e. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, are missing. Even the captions of the billboard have changed from “Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar” (This time Modi government) to “Vikas ki hogi tej raftar /Jab kendra-rajya mein ek sarkar” (Development will take pace when the same government is in power at the Centre and in the state). Pictures of even the alliance partner leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi got prominent places.
Focus on Bihari, not Bahri
As long as the pictures of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah were dominating posters, banners, hoardings and in the advertisements in newspapers and TV channels, it provided an opportunity to Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav to raise the “Bihari versus Bahri” (insider Bihari versus outsider non-Bihari) issue. In last few days, images of BJP leaders from Bihar, such as Sushil Modi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Giriraj Singh and Rajiv Pratap Rudy, among others, have been placed everywhere. As a result of Lalu-Nitish’s strategic barb, the faces of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have been pushed into background.
Development to counter reservation debate
It is believed that if the BJP loses in the Bihar polls, one of the key reasons would be RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's remark that the caste-based reservation system should be reviewed. This came as godsend opportunity to Lalu Yadav. He is using it at its optimum level in playing his Mandal card. The BJP came out with posters and banners on the developmental agenda to counter Lalu and Nitish’s reservation card. The new slogans urge people to vote for change. One reads: “Badaliye sarkar, badaliye Bihar”.
All-inclusive strategy meetings
Reports say Amit Shah held a closed-door meeting with leaders of alliance partners to chock out fresh strategy for the next phases of Bihar elections. Alliance leaders such as LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, his son Chirag Paswan, RLSP leaders Upendra Kushwaha and Arun Kumar, as well as leaders of HAM, Jitam Ram Manjhi and Shakuni Chaudhuri, were present at the meeting. Insiders say initially the BJP used to form a strategy and had it conveyed to alliance partners. Now they are made equal partners, in even its formation. In this meeting, it was decided to take on rivals aggressively in the coming phases of the campaign.
Are all of these steps sign of losing elections? Or are these mandatory course-corrections in the middle of a long electoral battle? Have they been taken out of desperation? Will it help the BJP in reviving its electoral fortune? Is it losing? Or will it boost its electoral prospect further? The BJP may say it is a midterm course correction but the Mahagathbandhan sees this as the sign of nervousness within its rivals. The Grand Alliance is elated. But a definitive answer will be known only on November 8.