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How Bihar results will change Congress' fortune in Assam

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Devanik Saha
Devanik SahaNov 10, 2015 | 15:23

How Bihar results will change Congress' fortune in Assam

With the Mahagathbandhan's spectacular win in Bihar, it is serious introspection time for the BJP. Amidst the hullabaloo of this gem of an election, Congress, whose electoral fortunes have been disastrous since late 2013, has finally got a reason to smile and rejoice.

Finally, being on the winning side after many months, this is an opportune moment for the Congress to revive themselves. There are three reasons as to why the Bihar verdict could be the tip of an iceberg for the Congress and how they can continue this momentum:

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1. Highest ever seats in Bihar

With 27 seats (out of 41 contested), Congress have secured their highest ever tally in the divided Bihar state post 2000. Their strike rate of 68 per cent is even better than the BJP. Though it is clear that such a high number of seats can only be attributed to their joining the Mahagathbandhan and the projection of Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate, it will definitely cheer the Congress camp and its party workers after a series of debacles. The palpable glee on Rahul Gandhi's face was evident when journalists went to interview him.

2. Increase in index of opposition unity

As witnessed, opposition parties such as AAP, Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress are delighted by BJP's loss in Bihar, this is an opportunity for the Congress to start stitching an anti-BJP coalition along with prominent regional parties, if they want to be serious contenders for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The time is ripe for the Congress to start staging its electoral revival.

3. Upcoming winter Parliament session

The winter session of Parliament will begin in a few weeks. Given that the Congress is the main opposition party and has a significant strength in the Rajya Sabha, with this newly found thrust they should focus on supporting the BJP to pass key reforms and not stall them for the heck of it, which will strengthen their image further. Squandering away the success in Bihar by creating deadlocks in the Parliament will prove to be costly. With Rahul Gandhi's new angry avatar, the Congress should leverage this momentum to establish themselves as a strong but constructive opposition.

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More importantly, the upcoming Assam Assembly election will be a stern test. With just six months left, Congress must start preparing for it with utmost urgency. As Bihar's example demonstrated, the developmental work such as rural electrification, education and girls' empowerment by Nitish was the decisive factor. But it was made decisive by an effective campaign strategy by Prashant Kishor (Nitish Kumar's campaign manager) and his team.

Recently, Assam was adjudged the "Best Infrastructure Development State" in the big state category in the 13th States Conclave by India Today group. There was an increase of 17 per cent in the length of pucca roads from 2011 to 2013-14, whereas the national average was four per cent. The report by India Today further said that Assam has moved from 19th in 2014 to 7th this year in composite development, in agriculture from 17th to 9th, in education from 17th to 7th, in health from 13th to 12th, in investment from 11th to 6th and in macro economy from 19th to 4th.  This effectively means that chief minister Tarun Gogoi's track record is impressive but it needs to be communicated effectively as well to the voters. If it plans its election campaign as effectively as the grand alliance, it might be able to retain power and thwart the BJP.

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The success and social engineering of the grand alliance has impressed everyone and probably will inspire other parties to follow suit as well.

Gogoi said on November 9: "I am not for a maha-jot as they had in Bihar. Instead, I would go for a maha-understanding among all anti-BJP parties in the Assam polls. I appeal to all parties, including the AGP, AIUDF, CPI and CPM to join this platform." This sounds quite sensible.

However, the worrying part for the Assam Congress is that they have suffered serious dissidence in the recent past. Himanta Biswa Sarma, one of the closest aides of Tarun Gogoi previously, shifted to the BJP and there is a strong chance that he will stake his claim to be the BJP's CM projection. More recently, nine Congress MLAs and some leaders of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) joined the BJP.

The issue of illegal immigrants will be one of the biggest election issues in Assam and it is exactly where the BJP might have a problem - the BJP government's recent decision to grant asylum to Bangladeshi Hindu migrants in Assam led to widespread protests and demonstrations.

Therefore, an alliance with the AGP and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by Badruddin Ajmal, will prove to be a tough fight for BJP just as the grand alliance was in Bihar. AIUDF has a significant command over the state's minority population and given BJP's communal image, stitching an alliance with it will be immensely beneficial for the Congress.

Last updated: November 10, 2015 | 15:24
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