What's gone wrong with BJP's communication?
The saffron party seems to be losing the plot.
Little over a year ago, Narendra Modi’s second term as Prime Minister seemed assured. This was after the BJP’s resounding victory in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections, which came despite the after-effects of demonetisation.
But, post July 2017, when the GDP figures for Q1 2018 came out, the tide began to turn. Now, no one is certain about the BJP’s comeback next year.
This has intrigued many BJP watchers. Has the BJP panicked, it is being asked, and lost its grip over the narrative?
Even the BJP’s worst critics admired its communication capabilities. Yet, now, that appears to be the weakest link in its strategy.
Last week, I tuned into Piyush Goyal’s press briefing on Rafale.
Goyal is one of the most articulate speakers in the BJP. He does not have Arun Jaitley’s savvy or Smriti Irani’s spunk. But he is generally on top of facts. Talks to the point, with clarity and logic.
But on October 12, Goyal’s performance was below par. It was a rapid-fire presentation, high on details but low on punch. He appeared to be in a hurry (he did have a flight to catch, it later turned out).
The main purpose of the presser was to call out Rahul Gandhi’s accusations on the Rafale deal. But then, there ought to have been bigger hype and better mobilisation of the media. As it was, the effort seemed perfunctory. It was like going through the motions.
Meanwhile, other leaders and spokespersons keep shooting in all directions, compounding the confusion. They not only contradict their peers, but often tie themselves in knots. Such clueless prolocutors can make even the cleanest deal look like a scam.
The same lack of clarity looms over other live issues. Be it petrol-diesel prices, the falling Rupee, the stock market crash or the ILFS scam, there are no answers.
In comparison, the Congress manages to get a much bigger bang for its press meets. This is with or without Rahul Gandhi.
Randeep Surjewala comes across as a well-trained spokesperson. He seems to have a rapport with the journalists assigned to the Congress beat. The Congress had old relationships with the media, which he has nurtured even in its lean period. As a result, he is able to get far greater amplification for the party’s message.
Besides, the Congress now has a much more disciplined communication approach. Everyone does not talk on all subjects. Take Rafale or the economy as examples. Other than Rahul Gandhi and Surjewala, only P Chidambaram speaks. Then they have free-lancers like Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha and Prashant Bhushan firing from the flanks. Generals like Jairam Ramesh are operating from the backroom.
In the states too, there is a clear chain of command. Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia talk in Madhya Pradesh. Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. Each time Digvijaya Singh opens his mouth, he is shut up pronto.
In BJP, on the other hand, it is a game of musical chairs. The party has a battery of spokespersons. One never knows who will bat for a topic on a given day. Not only do voices and faces change, there is rarely any consistency in the message.
Both BJP and the media seem to believe that only Narendra Modi's and Amit Shah's words matter. If they are not speaking, a press conference or event is not worth covering. Arun Jaitley may be the only other exception. Unless, of course some ‘foot-in-the-mouth’ BJP leader makes a gaffe. Then the media plays it ad-nauseam, in a loop for 24 hours.
======
The BJP pioneered the use of social media in elections. Now, others have caught up. The Congress, especially, has done a remarkable job, despite being a late starter.
To stay ahead of the curve, the BJP invested in digital outreach in a big way. I recently registered on the NaMo App. A brilliant innovation by any standards.
I receive a daily stream of the Prime Minister’s speeches from various events. Though he is a brilliant speaker, he is beginning to sound repetitive. Besides, didactic speeches are not as engaging as his political addresses.
Then there is a continuous flow of “India Shining” kind of news feeds. These are “feel good” stories. They are op-ed articles, statistics and reports from institutions like the World Bank. All very complimentary of the government.
It also has a social media corner, which is overflowing with praise for the government and its many schemes.
There is nothing wrong in showcasing achievements. In fact, it is imperative, when the Opposition is trying to run down the government. But beyond a point, it looks like “sarkari propaganda”, and people begin to lose interest.
Communication overkill can be a big dampener. So, it is important to measure impact. It is easy to find where the message is reaching, and the levels of engagement. Dissected by geography and demographics, it provides valuable insights.
To the existing BJP supporters, it is like preaching to the converted. But, if the target is the “non-believers”, it would call for a different approach. The skeptics would want specific counter arguments to change their mind.
If the supporters have to convert fence-sitters, they have to know the right answers. That seems to be the missing piece.
========
It is not only the political parties that have taken to social media. A big change since 2014 is the greater use of social media by the MSM. That gives the media a huge multiplier effect. Now, TV Channels plug interviews and debates on Twitter and You Tube. Newspapers, agencies and the web arms of channels provide live feeds on Twitter.
Another development has been the emergence of online portals and publications. These have transformed the news landscape and dynamics of news consumption. They are also vulnerable to manipulation.
Has the BJP’s social media strategy evolved with time? There is no compelling evidence to suggest that yet. The credibility quotient of some of the pro-BJP websites is debatable.
In comparison, the Congress seems to be surer of its TG (Target Group). It also keeps recalibrating the tone and tenor of its messaging. That is why, we find that Divya Spandana Ramya’s flippant tweets have disappeared. Rahul Gandhi’s tweets are still irreverent and provocative, but they are more measured and mature than his “Pidi” tweet days.
Though the Congress too plays the hashtag war at a popular level, its main aim is the urban youth and the creamy layer.
The BJP’s IT cell, if one does exist, seems to operate at the lower end of the pyramid with its "troll-sena".
Battling it out with the ‘Left-Libs’ seems to have been outsourced to a few freelance RW volunteers. But they work to own brief, without any clear idea about the party line is.
Take for instance the case of #MeToo allegations against BJP minister MJ Akbar. BJP supporters are at once divided and confused about the party’s stand on the matter. Because of this, the image of the party’s top leadership is taking a beating. But it is also alienating many of their supporters, as they are unable to defend the indefensible.
Like many other things, the BJP’s communication strategy too is a victim of over-centralisation. Barring two or three people, no one seems to have any idea on the high command’s position on important issues. While that may be fine for major strategics, it can pose a problem in a crisis.
In 2014, Narendra Modi created magic. He gauged the pulse of the people on the ground and translated it into words through earthy idioms. Slogans like “Bahut Ho Gaya Bhrashtachar, Manghai Ka Bhaar” resonated at every level.
This time, one is not sure if the feedback of the mood at ground zero is reaching the top. There is a disconnect between the larger call of “Sab Ka Saath, Sab ka Vikas” and local fault-lines. The SC/ST Act is a case in point of the problems that cadres in the states are grappling with.
The task for Rahul Gandhi is simpler, as a challenger. He can take a default positions on everything without letting facts come in the way. That is the strategy Rahul Gandhi is following with total focus on Rafale. His singular agenda seems to be to make the labels of ‘corrupt’ and ‘anti-poor’ stick on Narendra Modi.
There is a view that answers are not forthcoming because indeed there are no answers. Or the BJP leadership knows that while fighting anti-incumbency, no answer is good enough. So they are concentrating instead on war-room strategy, electoral arithmetic and booth management.
In the end, the BJP knows the only person who can change or set the narrative is Narendra Modi. But, even the master batsman may find it difficult to score a 272 ++, if the pitch is queered before the match.