Drought or not, Shiv Sena lacks guts to divorce BJP

When BJP ally's Shiv Sena tore apart the nationalistic sails of Modi sarkar during a debate in the Rajya Sabha, it did not surprise anyone in Maharashtra. Speaking in the upper house, Sena MP and Shiv Sena mouthpiece Samana's executive editor Sanjay Raut asked the government to make India drought-free.

Raut asked, how hungry citizens of the country could chant Bharat mata ki jai. Remember, the Opposition had demanded a discussion on the prevailing drought situation in the country and despite being an ally, what the Shiv Sena MP said in Rajya Sabha, could have been passed as a Congress or CPM MP's speech.

Looks like the Shiv Sena MP has got the go ahead from Uddhav Thackeray to go all out against the BJP. In the past few months, this is the ninth time the Sena has jumped at the opportunity to attack BJP. The following table shows ten instances when Shiv Sena opposed the BJP:

It was the Shiv Sena's strategy even during Bal Thackeray's time to be in government and act like the Opposition, create nuisance value and keep the alliance partner under check. This strategy actually harmed the government at the Centre and the state, and when Shiv Sena-BJP lost power in Maharashtra in 1999, the BJP leaders, in private, always criticised the Sena leadership and especially its mouthpiece for bringing down the credibility of its government.

However, Bal Thackeray and Saamana didn't change; their attack on their own government continued even when Atal Bihari Vajpayee's cabinet had three Shiv Sena leaders.

When Uddhav Thackeray took over the reins of the party, he changed the strategy. He reigned in Samana and even pulled up executive editor Sanjay Raut for targeting the BJP. He wanted to work with the alliance partner for the simple reason that he had too many challenges within his party - first from senior Sena leader Narayan Rane and then his rebel cousin Raj Thackeray.

Though many from the BJP thought of this as an opportunity to grow in strength at the cost of Sena's loss in the internal power struggle, the senior leadership of the party - leaders like Advani and late Gopinath Munde - stood behind Uddhav.

Despite this, the Sena faced a heavy drubbing in the 2009 Assembly elections, and then in 2012 in the Mumbai, Nasik and Pune municipal corporation elections. These corporations were a power source for the Sena and Raj Thackeray emerged as a challenger. Despite the defeats, the BJP stood with Uddhav as the party knew that the Shiv Sena has a grassroots cadre and, in Maharashtra, they would need the Shiv Sena more than any other party.

But the 2014 Parliament elections changed everything. BJP grew not only in numbers but the party also built up its confidence with the emergence of Narendra Modi as the supreme leader and vote catcher.

The Lok Sabha landslide was an opportunity for the BJP to flex its muscles in Maharashtra for which they had been patiently waiting for the past 25 years ever since Pramod Mahajan took an inferior position when the BJP inked an alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

The Sena leadership, especially Uddhav Thackeray, understood the change in the behaviour of the ally but never thought that BJP will actually go forward and break the alliance ahead of the Assembly elections. But despite not being ready to fight 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections alone, the Shiv Sena put up a brave fight and stopped BJP from getting full majority on their own. The party thought they could now armtwist the BJP and the latter was left with no choice but to have an alliance with Sena in the state.

However, Sharad Pawar spoilt Uddhav's plan and declared unconditional support to BJP saying NCP doesn't want mid term polls. This hampered Sena's calculations.

Sources say that the Sena leadership started worrying about the split in the party as many of its leaders wanted to be part of the government after spending 15 years in the Opposition. Sensing this, Uddhav Thackeray and his lieutenants had accepted the BJP's offer of not getting deputy chief ministership or prime berths like home, housing or revenue for Shiv Sena and joined the government.

Despite Shiv Sena ministers taking oath in Maharashtra after 15 years, the swearing-in ceremony was gloomy and the party lacked enthusiasm.

Despite this, Devendra Fadnavis developed quite a good rapport with Uddhav Thackeray and they could form a working leadership. The Sena thought things would change, but they did not.

The BJP leadership is now eyeing Mumbai, Nasik and Pune corporations. It knows they are Shiv Sena's lifeline and that if defeated here, the Sena will not be able to pose any political threat to the party.

Sources in Sena claim Uddhav lost his cool when the BJP's attempts to lure Shiv Sena corporators in Mumbai, Nasik and Pune reached Matoshree's ears. A meeting of BJP leaders from Mumbai with party chief Amit shah added fuel to that.

It was said that Shah asked the state leadership to win 2017 BMC elections by "hook or crook". Shiv Sena leadership was told that BJP has set their eyes on Mumbai and that is the reason why "credit" for many urban projects of Mumbai - which were originally part of Udhhav Thackeray's vision document - has been snatched by BJP.

Chief minister Devendra Fadanvis' presence at every small inaugural event in Mumbai, especially at BMC's initiatives hasn't gone down well with Uddhav Thackeray.

The Sena has wanted to project all of BMC's success as its own. On the other hand, for any goof-ups on the part of the BMC, BJP leaders from Mumbai left no stone unturned to attack Shiv Sena and its "Yuva" leader Aaditya Thackeray.

Finally, Uddhav Thackeray has now decided to go all out against BJP in the coming days. He has personally attacked BJP at Shiv Sena's internal meet and asked the party cadre to take the government to task on issues like price rise, drought and question the "achhe din" theory.

But on one issue, Shiv Sena has no answer: why are they still in the government? Sources close to the party chief say that Uddhav will never bring it upon himself to get out of the government at least before the alliance completes three years in office.

He will wait for the February 2017 municipal corporation elections results when nine big cities - including Mumbai - go to polls.

If Shiv Sena does well, then these attacks will increase, strategy will be decided post the elections. However, the BJP thinks that fearing backclash from their own leaders, Uddhav Thackeray will never bring down this government, and that is the reason why Shiv Sena is not giving names of its leaders even when Devendra Fadanvis wants to go ahead with Cabinet expansion.

But if you listen to MNS chief Raj Thackeray, he will tell you the Sena doesn't have the guts to stay out of power - an analysis that is similar to the BJP leadership's.