Why Congress must reclaim Uttar Pradesh to win Lok Sabha 2019
India’s most-populous state recently lifted the veil off the stark reality that the BJP has been glossing over.
The Uttar Pradesh by-poll results surely have dawned an epiphany on the BJP leaders hinting at the ruling party’s decreasing popularity amongst the masses. But, it’s no less than a harsh reminder to the Congress party that it’s time to act.
Yes, public anger against the BJP is apparent now that the party has lost two significant by-polls in Uttar Pradesh’s Gorakhpur and Phulpur. But then, the Congress cannot rejoice over this fact - for its own party’s candidates forfeited deposits in the very same state which was once proudly celebrated as the Nehru-Gandhi bastion.
Congress, UP and Nehru-Gandhi legacy
There was a time when the above trio shared a deep bond. Today, that bond stands enfeebled due to forces like Ram Manohar Lohia movement, Mandal Commission and Hindutva politics played by the BJP.
Now that the BJP’s Hindutva plank has failed to work in the by-polls, the Congress needs to rush and reclaim its legacy and Uttar Pradesh both.
UP gave India and the Congress its magnificent prime ministers in the form of Jawaharlal Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi, who were both born in Allahabad and India’s youngest prime minister ever, Rajiv Gandhi.
UP’s Phulpur is the same region from where Jawaharlal Nehru won the Lok Sabha elections in 1952, 1957 and 1962. Nehru held the seat until he died in 1964, after which his sister Vijayalakshmi Pandit won the seat in 1967.
Another important constituency, Rae Bareli became a Nehru-Gandhi family stronghold when Feroze Gandhi, Indira Gandhi’s husband, became the MP from the constituency, and later his daughter-in-law and Rajiv Gandhi’s wife, Sonia Gandhi also won the seat in 2004, 2009, and currently holds the same after the 2014 elections.
UP’s Amethi is also intrinsically connected to the Nehru-Gandhi family and marks the family’s legacy. Indira Gandhi’s younger son Sanjay Gandhi became the MP from Amethi after defeating Ravindra Pratap Singh of the Janata Party in 1980. After his death later in the same year, a by-election in the constituency made his elder brother Rajiv Gandhi the MP of the constituency in 1981.
Rajiv Gandhi represented Amethi until his assassination in 1991. Rajiv Gandhi’s wife, Sonia Gandhi subsequently represented the constituency from 1999-2004. From 2004 till date, Rahul Gandhi has been holding the seat of Amethi constituency’s MP.
We don’t have to move far from UP to understand the tie that India’s first family shares with the state. Rahul Gandhi’s estranged cousin and the son of Sanjay Gandhi, Varun Gandhi is a BJP MP from UP’s Sultanpur constituency. Varun’s mother and Sanjay Gandhi’s wife, Maneka Gandhi is also the current MP of UP’s Pilibhit Lok Sabha constituency. Since 1989, she has won the seat several times, which is another testament to the fact that the Gandhi family’s connection with Uttar Pradesh and its people is quite unassailable.
But the present-day reality demands the fortification of this connection which is gradually slackening.
The Congress has been out of power in UP for over 29 years now. So, while the Nehru-Gandhi family members may have been able to secure their Lok Sabha seats in the state so far, they need to swing fortune in the Assembly elections to reclaim the family’s diminishing glory.
Congress must build its own brand of politics
The biggest challenge in front of Congress president Rahul Gandhi is to help the party regain its lost glory in Uttar Pradesh, which plays a major role in government formation at the Centre.
There is no denying that the road to Raisina Hill goes through Uttar Pradesh. The state contributes 80 seats to the Lok Sabha and any political party must aim to secure at least 50 per cent of these seats to form its government at the Centre.
Having been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for the past 29 years, the Congress is a party in disarray. Nearly defunct, it is struggling in a state that sends 80 members to the lower house of Parliament.
The party apparatus is in disarray, with no committees in many districts, and the cadre is nowhere at the grass-roots level. The Congress should refrain from indulging in piggyback politics in the state. Allying with regional parties is no way out for the party to make its presence felt in the nation.
While BSP supremo Mayawati has always been unenthusiastic about allying with the Congress, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav may also be reluctant to form a grand alliance with the Congress in the future.
The resentment shown by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav after the SP allied with the Congress in 2017, led to the loss of some good number of votes for the Samajwadi Party in the election.
Later, when the SP was voted out of power, Mulayam Singh Yadav firmly stated that the party had faced the consequence of allying with the Congress.
Apart from these hiccups, a bigger challenge ahead of the Congress party lies in becoming the chief arbiter in case the party manages to form a joint front with regional outfits against the BJP in the 2019 elections. Elated with the by-poll results, leaders like Akhilesh Yadav, Tejaswi Yadav (RJD in Bihar), and Mayawati, may not want Rahul Gandhi to be projected as the prime ministerial candidate for 2019 if at all a grand alliance is formed.
The revival of regional parties poses a great threat in front of the Congress as the leaders of many such parties are not interested in playing second fiddle to it. And looking at the current electoral map of UP, it is a no-brainer that Amit Shah might pitch Mayawati as she has emerged as a potential kingmaker in 2019.
With 20 per cent of UP’s Dalit vote bank by her side, she surely understands when and how to turn the tables. No one knows she might even end up supporting the BJP in 2019. The Congress, thus, needs to strengthen its own party, rather than relying on others.
Reclaiming UP can become a possibility for India's grand old party if it presents an alternative vision to Uttar Pradesh and its youths.
UP hasn’t seen a Congress government in the past three decades. Nature abhors vacuum and it’s time that the Congress fills that. The reality also lies in understanding that the Congress’s bigger enemy is the regional outfits those who have grown at its expense.
Hope in the dark
If the Congress needs to make a powerful comeback in the national polity, then it must begin to work for it without further ado. Much can be learned from BJP chief Amit Shah, who helped the BJP to sweep power in UP in both the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and 2017 UP Assembly elections after 15 long years.
The state had stunned India with both the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 Assembly mandates. Amit Shah, who was in charge of the BJP’s strategy in UP, had done something unthinkable in 2014. Out of the 80 seats, the BJP won 73 seats. It was a big climb of 63 seats from its 2009 tally.
It all started on June 12, 2013, when Shah, who at that time most people in Uttar Pradesh knew only as a trusted aide of Narendra Modi, came to Lucknow after being named the in-charge of the state unit of BJP.
It was a long, meticulous operation guided by sound strategy. Be it strengthening the organisation or unifying the Hindu vote in the Hindi heartland or the smart social engineering model, Shah played his cards right. Everything started right and on time, whether it was Modi’s yatra, or booth-level management - for the BJP knew what it needed to have a strong organisation. Shah wanted every UP voter to know Modi.
"He must touch Modi somewhere" was his idea. He was new to the land of the Ganga. To familiarise himself with the state, Shah travelled 93,000km by road and rail in the last one year.
In all, he spent 142 nights in villages and towns of different UP districts. Everywhere he ensured he had dinner of saunf-khichdi-chaas at workers' homes. In 52 districts, he addressed big meetings.
Even though the Congress party’s relatively good performance in UP is cited as one of the reasons why it was able to come to retain power at the Centre in 2009, the present situation demands more. As the party president, Rahul Gandhi is trying his best to reclaim UP, but what’s needed now is to build a strong cadre of influential leaders who can revive the Congress party from the ground up. Grassroots workers need to be appointed to spread awareness about the party and its work and to create an emotive appeal.
The Congress also needs to break away from caste conflicts that are haunting the nation and launch some effective social welfare schemes that aim at inclusive development.
During my recent visits to the different parts of UP, I realised that the last two generations are oblivious to the contributions made by the Congress. The youngsters here know about the Congress only through their parents. The party and its leaders are missing from the scene.
In fact, the little knowledge that the youth has about the Congress is limited to Indira Gandhi, Sanjay Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. I don’t see a reason why Congress can’t evoke Jawaharlal Nehru in Phulpur and Indira Gandhi in Rae Bareli.
Rather than focusing on building an alliance with the regional parties, the Congress must reclaim its legacy by creating awareness about the contribution of Congress leaders towards India and UP.
Rural politics and winning over the masses holds the key to UP’s heart. The agrarian state has more than 60 per cent of its population working in the fields, sweating out and waiting for better days.
The Congress’s approach for 2019 has to be focussed on farmers and villages. Uttar Pradesh has 97,814 villages. A major disadvantage which the party faces is lack of cadre and foot soldiers.
To convert crowds coming to hear the leaders speak, grassroots workers play a very significant and decisive role. Outside of Amethi and Rae Bareli, the Congress’s cadre thins out. To spread the Congress wave, the base of the party has to be strengthened in every city, town and village.
The key factor is appointment of village representatives, who will mobilise the youth and the old alike. These village representatives will work at the booth levels with an army of workers to gather votes.
A team of Youth Congress workers can be assimilated to oversee the functioning of the village machinery. To attain this, an inverted pyramid approach has to be followed with a specific time limit.
At present, while many are busy writing the BJP’s epitaph, what the Congress must remember is that it needs to form a wave of its own. A lot can be done if things are started right and started now, as one year is a long time in politics.
If the Congress becomes visible in Uttar Pradesh and reclaims its legacy as well as the state, it can return to the forefront of Indian politics in a few years’ time.
Uttar Pradesh has close to 150 unregistered local parties/sangathans. These smaller parties have a very selective following and are more connected with the locals. To increase the number of cadres in the state, the Congress can take these smaller parties under its wing, thus giving itself the much-needed grassroots presence.
Also, it’s imperative to keep in mind that UP is one of the most backward states in the country and the credit goes to the past state governments formed by parties like the SP and the BSP. So, the moment the Congress supports these parties, it has to deal with the repercussions of lack of development work in the state.
The way to winning UP is through making a place in the heart of the electorate through social drives and movements which focus on inclusive development for broad reaching results. Spearheading social awareness is the work of the change-maker.
Crossing the road alone may seem to be tough, but it also brings with it a golden opportunity for the Congress party as Mayawati is down, and Akhilesh Yadav’s party has got its own issues to tackle with.
Presently, no party can act as the anchor against the BJP in UP. Consequently, an independent revival of the Congress party can fill the vacuum for an alternative to Yogi Adityanath’s UP.
Going forward from here, the Congress must begin to work for 2022. Yogi Adityanath must be replaced. Not by Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav, but by a Congress CM face. At present, it might seem like a distant vision, but it’s achievable provided the Congress starts finding an alternative socio-economic vision to mobilise the masses.
The sad state of Congress’ electoral performance can change if the party leaders come together to show their political and organisational muscle. The first thing first - the Congress has to start being visible in UP.
None of the Congress workers are seen on the ground. There is no Congress in UP. How can people embrace you when you are not there? From Allahabad, the city of Triveni Sangam, the Congress should send a message that from "Panchayat to Parliament" all elections would be fought by the Congress. This will stir the people with interest in the Congress in the nooks and corners of UP.
A place of religious importance and the site for historic Kumbh Mela held every 12 years, Allahabad also been the site of immersion of ashes of several national leaders, including Mahatma Gandhi in 1948.
Allahabad has a deep connect with the Indian National Congress, as the city has been a witness to many important events in India's freedom struggle such as emergence of the first Indian National Congress in 1885, the beginning of Mahatma Gandhi's non-violence movement in 1920.
Allahabad is the oldest living city in India after Varanasi and it is also known as the city of prime ministers because seven of 15 prime ministers of India since independence have connections with Allahabad.
More than a political party, the Congress is a movement - born out of the Independence struggle of the country - and it can never cease to exist. The Congress must remember that its darkest just before the dawn, and when you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up.