Why cracking the 2017 MCD polls may now be an uphill task for Delhi BJP

If the results in the Delhi municipal by-polls in 13 seats are any indication, the upcoming MCD elections in 2017 will not be as rosy as it should have been for the BJP.

The 13 seats had become vacant in 2012 and 13 councillors were elected to the Delhi assembly in 2013 and 2015. What is really worrisome for the BJP is the fact that in the 2012 municipal elections, it had won 7 out of 13 seats. The figure now stands at just 3 seats with only 34 per cent of votes, showing a steep decline of 6 per cent from 2012.

So how does this figure augur for the Delhi BJP and the road ahead for 2017?

On the face of it, the results of the by-polls of 13 seats don't matter much.

But if you throw in the fact that the big MCD battle is due next year and also that all parties give it their best shot to wrest as many seats as possible, you wouldn't be off the mark (especially if you are a sports freak) to dub this as the definitive semifinal to the big finals in 2017.

The biggest setback for the BJP has been that it had previously held 7 of the 13 seats and now that figure stands depleted at just 3. A senior Delhi BJP leader said one of the biggest reasons for worry is the fact that the three candidates who have won, have done so on their own goodwill rather than any party backing. Though the BJP has won maximum percentage of votes, more than either the Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party, the party remains a badly divided house.

As a Delhi leader pointed out that the state unit of the BJP is split among various rival camps led by the likes of Vijay Goel, Vijendra Gupta and others. What adds to the existing problem is the fact that though Satish Upadhyay is the president of the Delhi BJP, he doesn't command much respect. That he was not able to secure a ticket for himself in 2012 assembly elections and was merely a stamp president was not lost on anybody.

What added insult to injury for him is the fact that for the last six to eight months, market is rife with rumours about his imminent removal from the post of Delhi BJP president.  Nobody takes Satish Upadhyay seriously and the grapevine also eroded whatever was left of his authority and left the field open for assertion of anyone who has some clout.

What is also upsetting for the state BJP is the emergence of Congress in this by-poll. In these 13 seats, Congress did not have even one seat before the by-polls. But now with wins in 4 seats and an independent all set to join it, the Congress story has seen a spectacular turn around.

This must also be worrying AAP as the re-emergence of Congress also means smaller vote percentage for the former. As for the BJP, the all important 2017 MCD elections will now be a three-cornered contest. Not only the BJP has been the lord and master of the unified and then trifurcated MCD since 2012, but now when it goes to poll in 2017, it will also be battling anti-incumbency.

Apart from this, it looks like Delhi hasn't yet forgotten the civic mess following the constant protests by the MCD workers due to non-payment of their dues. This, coupled with the fact that its near rout in Delhi assembly and addition of one more rival, doesn't augur well for the saffron party.

Another cause of discomfort for the BJP is the fact that if the AAP is able to replicate its assembly performance in the MCD elections in 2017, it will be nothing short of a political crisis for the former. Though the party is consoling itself with the fact that they have got the highest vote percentage, deep down it is aware that in case they are not able to convert it into seats, then they are doomed.

With just three seats in 2015 assembly elections and another three in by-polls of MCD election in 2016, it is a wake-up call for the BJP to take its game to another level or face obliteration in Delhi politics despite having a sizeable percentage of actual votes.