Divided Jharkhand BJP owes its victory to Modi

The BJP is set to lead the new government in Jharkhand, as its electoral pursuit in alliance with Sudesh Mahto's AJSU party has reached 42, just what it needed to secure a simple majority in the 82-member Jharkhand Assembly. In the Assembly election held for 81 seats-the Jharkhand Assembly has one nominated Anglo-Indian member-the BJP has finished with 37 seats, while its alliance partner AJSU bagged five seats.

Since its formation in November 2000, and before this election; Jharkhand never had any party or alliance that crossed the halfway mark in the state legislature. In the first 14 years of its existence, the state has seen nine governments. This is the first occasion when Jharkhand's electorates have given a decisive mandate in favour of a BJP-led alliance.

The Assembly poll result helped the BJP finish 2014, a year that brought about party's rise to power in Delhi in May, on a happy note. In Jharkhand where BJP had bagged 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, the Assembly results mark a process that began with the Lok Sabha elections and has continued uninterrupted since.

The electoral success, however, is not without some bitter results for the two alliance partners. Both the BJP and the AJSU have to face the ignominy of seeing their tallest leaders bite the dust at the hustings. BJP's three-term chief minister Arjun Munda lost by more than 12,000 votes from Kharsawan constituency, which was known as his pocket borough. The shocking defeat has effectively eliminated Munda, who had refused to contest Lok Sabha polls hoping for a bigger role after the assembly polls, from the race of being BJP's chief ministerial candidate.

AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto, a former deputy chief minister, also lost from his traditional stronghold of Silli - which had successively elected him thrice in the past - by more than 30,000 votes.    

With 37 MLAs, the BJP has not only gone beyond doubling its 2009 tally of 18 seats but also clocked its best performance ever in Jharkhand, up from its 2005 tally of 30 MLAs. BJP president Amit Shah also expressed satisfaction over the party's performance in Jharkhand, although BJP's final tally still couldn't match party's Lok Sabha performance in Jharkhand.

Only six months back, the BJP while winning 12 of Jharkhand 14 Lok Sabha seats, had maintained a lead in 56 Assembly constituencies in Jharkhand. The proximity of the two elections made everyone hope that the outcome of Lok Sabha election would retain its impact on the assembly poll. But, BJP's own tally in the assembly is 18 less than the party's Lok Sabha performance.

The Lok Sabha success had only made the BJP conceited and self-assured. As the party once again hoped to ride on the coattails of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the bitterly divided state unit with factions bearing allegiance to Arjun Munda and Raghubar Das tried to scuttle each other that left the party huffing at the finish line.

The BJP's electoral success, however, still stands out, as the party has won more than double of the ruling JMM's number, which under Hemant Soren has succeeded in improving its 2009 tally of 18 seats by winning 19 seats this time. Hemant Soren, who contested from two seats, lost from his sitting seat of Dumka, though he secured a consolation victory in Barhait constituency. Jharkhand Vikash Morcha Chief and Jharkhand first Chief Minister Babulal Marandi lost from both seats that he contested from.

Former Jharkhand chief minister Madhu Koda is among the prominent losers, although his wife Geeta Koda has retained her Jagannathpur seat.

Though partners in the Jharkhand government, the JMM and Congress-RJD had failed to stitch an alliance after they failed to reach an agreement on sharing of the seats. The JMM had contested the Assembly polls alone and against Congress-RJD. The only consolation that the three parties can have from the Assembly results is that their combined vote share of 34 per cent (JMM 20.4 per cent, Congress ten point five per cent and RJD three point one per cent) is only marginally behind BJP-AJSU tally of 35 per cent (BJP-31.3 per cent, AJSU three point seven per cent). The result will only give more reasons for the opposition parties to join hands before next year's Bihar elections.

A closer look at how votes changed hands in Jharkhand supports the suggestion that voters are increasingly drifting towards a bipolar choice in the state. The BJP and JMM, while contesting against each other, have won 56 seats, way above the magic number of 42 in the 82 member Assembly.

Senior BJP leaders today admitted it was a disappointment to see the BJP falling short of the magic number on its own. This may still force it to accept demands of alliance partner AJSU, which does not have a credible track record.

While a deeper assessment of this less than satisfactory performance will be done in days to come, on the face of it, the BJP seems to have lost crucial seats because of its ill-judged alliance with AJSU - a decision that the central unit had imposed on the Jharkhand BJP. Besides, both Arjun Munda and Raghubar Das - who were desperate to please the central representatives apparently to win their favour for the top job - gave a free hand to central party representatives in selection of candidates, which cost the party dearly in the ultimate analysis.

Now, with Arjun Munda out of the chief ministerial race after his defeat, the BJP is beset with a task to build new leadership in the state. It would also require a painstaking building of a government that delivers. Forging a new vision and overhauling the organisation to allow it to act as the vehicle of change is a very tall order.