Trump-Xi meeting: Although China comes bearing gifts, it won't be an easy conversation
All eyes in Beijing and Washington are on the upcoming first summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting, scheduled for April 6 and 7 in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, is being seen as make-or-break for what is considered the world’s most important relationship.
For Trump, both as candidate and as president-elect, China was a punching bag, and central to his “America First” message to his constituents, framed by him as the victims of the globalisation model that propelled China’s rise. Ending this one-sided relationship, he said, would be a priority, whether this meant labelling China a currency manipulator or imposing a 45 per cent import tariff.
For China, the initial uncertainty about Trump has given way to some calm after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s March visit. But, Beijing is aware the stakes are high. As an insider put it, the last thing Beijing wants to see is Xi being insulted.
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| As an insider put it, the last thing Beijing wants to see is Xi being insulted. |
“If we see what happened to (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel at the White House when she asked Trump to shake his hand and he didn’t respond, there will be outrage in China,” he said.
More than optics, for China, protecting its trade and economic interests in the US is key, which it may attempt to do by offering the prospect of huge investments and job creation, as Alibaba’s Jack Ma, for one, has already assured Trump. This isn’t likely to be easy.
“I would be careful about jumping to the conclusion that Xi can buy his way out of the problem,” cautioned Ashley Tellis, leading US strategic thinker, a former state department official and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, while speaking in Beijing on Wednesday.
“There are too many constituencies in the US affected by China’s trade behaviour in the last 30 years. I think the Chinese will come bearing gifts, a sensible strategy for them to adopt, but I don’t think it will be an easy conversation.”
Tellis sees Trump as more of a nationalist than an isolationist, but cautions of a period of change not just for China but for US allies and partners as well, including India, as Trump renegotiates America’s terms of engagement with the rest of the world. This will leave India and others “trying to see where they fit”.
Tellis also expects a new approach to Pakistan, with growing consensus that “the previous US policy of giving Pakistan a long rope is simply untenable”. "The relationship is likely to be a lot more contingent and conditional — on specific issues, on basis of proof and verification,” he says.
In other words, no more blank cheques.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)
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