What to expect from Goa polls

Being a regular visitor of Goa and a keen observer of the politics of its politics, it doesn't surprise me that Goa continues to break new ground in electoral history.

In this multi-cornered, multi-issue electoral space there is but one constant truth - that there exists a certain political void in Goa.

BJP came close to filling it in 2012; propelled by corruption charges against Congress-led government and a certain cultural polarisation, but it too, in 2014, took its magnet away and unwillingly bared that political vacuum.

Today the party finds itself mired in such a desperate situation that the national president goes on record to say that Manohar Parrikar would run the government, if not from Panjim then from New Delhi. (Yes, democracy is overrated in times of Amit Shah).

The results of 2012 elections have shown that though Congress and BJP remain the main players, there is lot of space for alternative forces.

The entry of AAP and its blitzkrieg campaign, running from pillar to post, laying before a grand fantasy plan in manifesto, has further charged the political arena.

Goans voted for five Independents and five regional party MLAs in the 2012 election, together garnering close to 30 percent vote share.

With the Congress trying to regroup its divided house and the BJP having substituted a magnet with a damp squib, the shifting of the RSS faction to Subhash Vellinkar's GSM - looking to eat into BJP votes in Marathi North and West anti-incumbency and fighting the battle of odds against its demonetisation move that crippled tourism in the state and impacted livelihoods - there looks no better time for the rise of alternative forces.

And then comes newbie AAP, which has been better prepared than any other state party.

It had done rounds of door-to-door campaigning even before the other parties had taken stock of their electorate.

The ripples in the saffron brigade with Goa Sangharsh Manch (GSM) taking the cultural leaf out of BJP's fold and the inability of the Congress to stitch an alliance with the small regional parties has catapulted the possibility of open battlefield where AAP can surge on the pretext of being an "unknown angel".

AAP has also worked hard to portray itself as a united and leader-driven front. Its choice of an honest and popular bureaucrat like Elvin Gomes, who knows the games of the power corridors, can also reap electoral profits.

Its tapping local support has let it sustain in a state where Panchayat-level networks decide the course of the election. AAP's rise has definitely caused anxiety within the Congress, which sees it splitting its catholic votes in South Goa.

Though AAP may have emerged as a force in South Goa, there seems to be no palpable AAP wave in the Hindu and Marathi-speaking bastions in North and East Goa.

It seems clear that AAP might be eating into Congress's traditional vote bank.

And in such a multi-cornered and open election as the Goa polls, with an average electoral base of 22,000 in each constituency, every vote will count.At a time when parties are netting dissidents, renting out their symbols and bigger parties using smaller outfits to split the vote base of their rivals, AAP has been a more disciplined army in the way it worked in villages, identified candidates and started with ground work.

Even in August, AAP volunteers were busy with "Goa dialogues" and raising local issues.

To a great extent, it has been able to capture the nerve of local Goans, not the ones you see on Panjim's streets but the fishermen, the tribals and those living in interior villages, their rivers destroyed by illegal mining.

Its biggest advantage as well as disadvantage is that it is devoid of any baggage and Delhi is too far to look through its policies.

And while its novelty remains significant, the over-dependence on Arvind Kejriwal and a vacuum in the political brass of AAP Goa is a sign of trouble considering the party's higher stakes in Punjab, which goes to poll the same day.

It has failed to raise local issues like mining in North Goa or the setting up of IITs in the South.

AAP's inability to communicate its manifesto has also reduced it to being the soon-to-burst bubble.

The combined effect of the non-performance of the BJP government and the lacklustre persona of Laxmikant Parsikar has given Congress, the main Opposition, an edge.

Wander around Goa and you can still find support for the Congress, but the usual approach of starting the game late could cost a fortune.

While AAP is wonders which card to play, the BJP tries to ride on the Parrikar wave and fight internal feuds, and the MGP projects itself as more than a party cashing in on linguistic appeal, the Congress has shown some aggression with its careful selection of candidates - outmanoeuvring the alliance-seeking NCP and GFP.

By rejecting alliance talks and giving a sizeable number of seats to fresh faces, the Congress has managed to showcase gumption.

As they say, the election will be a test of Goa Congress president Luizinho Faleiro's leadership, who has enabled the party to send out the message that a road to building a future has been laid where none ever existed.

Whatever be the course of election for the Congress, at least the seeds of political revival have sprouted for the party.

Yet, the most the Congress can do is promise the electorate that it is ready to cleanse its dead wood, fix accountability and revive its foundations.

Good intention, these days, works better than good implementation, and miracles are not rare in Indian politics.

In this four-cornered contest, where there is no palpable wave in favour of one party or group as was in 2012, a hung verdict seems certain.

For a state where allegiances shift with the changing storm, nothing is permanent. There is an ideological vacuum in Goan politics which is waiting to be filled, it was exposed in 2012, and reemerged in 2017.

No one can predict which way the wind blows, on papers it seems BJP will see a dip as the saffron votes split and the Congress will need extra muscle to hold its Catholic votes, which - after a slip in 2012 - seemed to have been coming into its fold before being AAP emerged a contender.

With Assembly elections 2017, Goa might be looking ahead at another round of alliances, mergers and trade - which have signified its politics for centuries.