Hardik Patel versus Alpesh Thakor: Can foes turn allies?
Politics can make for strange bedfellows, but can warring leaders, who owe their political identity to opposing the other, be allies?
The Congress is walking a tightrope in Gujarat in its ambitious attempt to rope in young Patidar leader Hardik Patel and OBC face Alpesh Thakor, who has already joined the Congress earlier this month.
For the uninitiated, around two years ago, a young Patidar man, Hardik Patel, came out demanding reservation for the rather affluent Patidar community under the OBC (Other Backward Class) quota. His grouse was that the existing system was lopsided in favour of OBCs (represented by Thakor) who get "plum jobs and education benefits at the expense of deserving and hardworking candidates".
Thakor emerged as a leader of the OBC communities, aggressively defending the existing quota. He threatened mass boycott of any political front which would cede to Patidar demand as it would eat into the OBC quota.
In August 2015, Hardik organised a massive rally in Ahmedabad to underline the support his movement for reservation had. With lakhs of young agitators in Ahmedabad who poured in from all over Gujarat, what followed was violence on the streets. Ten Patidar youths were killed in the conflict. The Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS), whose convenor is Hardik, has demanded action against police officers, who he claims belonged to the OBC communities and unlawfully targeted Patidar youths out of vengeance.
Now with a month to go for the Gujarat Assembly elections, the Congress has formally inducted Thakor, who claims to represent 42 per cent of the electorate. According to Congress estimates, Thakor holds sway over only about 20 seats, as the population is scattered.
Hence, now, both the parties are bending over backwards to rope in Hardik, who claims to hold sway over around 48 of 182 seats in the state Assembly. Hardik has so far not warmed up to the BJP’s covert and overt offers, including the introduction of 10 per cent EBC (Economically Backward Classes) quota in the existing 49.5 per cent reservation in the state. He appears to be leaning towards Congress, with rumours of him meeting Rahul Gandhi during his visit to Gujarat last week. He then conceded to meeting senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, after CCTV footage of him leaving a hotel in which Rahul Gandhi was putting up at, was leaked to the media.
A historical perspective here can be enlightening.
In the past 22 years, since the BJP has been in power, the Patidar community has been the BJP’s backbone - especially economically. Patidars, essentially agrarian people, gained immensely under Indira Gandhi’s policies, which allowed land tillers of the time to own the land they were tilling. But Madhavsinh Solanki's KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) equation, formed the government appeasing the backward, minority and tribal communities in the state. This sidelined the politically and, by now, economically powerful Patidar community, which turned en masse to the BJP. The saffronists treated them well in the following years.
In the current Assembly, around 44, more than a third, of BJP’s 120 MLAs are Patidars. In the state cabinet, up to 10 ministers belonged to the community. Patidars are understood to constitute only around 18 per cent of the electorate. Ironically, the community that is demanding reservation, gets its political clout not from the numbers, but from its economical affluence.
On the other hand, the OBCs, mainly the Thakor community, mostly polarised in the north Gujarat region, though traditionally with the Congress, are a divided electorate now. Bringing in Thakor is not so much an acquisition for the Opposition party in Gujarat as much as having the Patidar voters in its fold would be.
Political observers are cautious in seconding the Congress’s calculation that the Patidars would actually vote for the Grand Old Party.
Congress sources, however, argue the community is significantly disillusioned with inflation, which was the genesis of the Patidar quota agitation. This was followed by demonetisation and now even the GST.
Congress leaders estimate that while it is true that two generations of Patidars have stayed away from the Congress due to the KHAM strategy, the youth is now a new generation, born after 1995, that has not seen any government other than the BJP, and does not carry forward its predecessors’ bitterness.
But the situation on the ground may not be as simple. Fissures between the OBCs (also identified as Kshatriyas in some areas) and Patidars, still run deep in the social fabric of rural Gujarat. Besides, for two young leaders - Alpesh and Hardik - to coexist in a competitive and resurgent Congress would be difficult.
Hardik has himself said he would not be pacified with anything less than reservation for this community, not just EBC quota, which the Congress has promised so far. If the Congress does announce reservation for the Patidars, it would directly impact the existing OBC reservation, that Alpesh would not appreciate. If it announces additional reservation, it is unlikely to clear the legal muster. Similar cases are pending in several courts across the country.
One view emerging from the BJP is that the Congress intended to geographically segregate the engagement of Hardik and Alpesh, and keep them busy there. The Patidar leader holds sway in Saurashtra while Alpesh in north Gujarat.
“But it is a myopic strategy. Just out of enthusiasm, the Congress is trying to capitalise the enemy’s enemies. Alpesh in Congress will inadvertently benefit Shankersinh Vaghela, whose core constitution is also the OBC vote bank. For now, we feel Congress has bitten off more than it can chew, and we will have the last laugh,” a senior BJP leader said.