More than Rahul Gandhi, Gujarat election results will serve a verdict on Modi and his 'magic'
After the General Elections 2014, the Gujarat polls have become the biggest test for Prime Minister Modi.
Even as the Congress and the BJP make tall claims about Gujarat elections, truth is that nerves are taut in both parties. For the Congress, the fight has been spearheaded by new president Rahul Gandhi, whose energetic leadership has made the party hopeful of a good show.
The BJP, meanwhile, is banking on the tried and tested magic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take it past the finish line. The party has claimed it is set to win 150 of the 182 seats in the Gujarat legislative Assembly.
However, the party has had to work extra hard in the state this time. The manner in which all major BJP leaders, including the Prime Minister, have consistently tried to polarise votes and harped on the theme of “Gujarati identity”, is proof enough that the election is proving to be a tough battle for the party.
After the General Elections 2014, the Gujarat polls have become the biggest test for Prime Minister Modi.
He would want to win Gujarat at any cost, because the BJP’s return to power in the Lok Sabha in 2019 and Modi’s own prime ministership seem to hinge on the way Gujarat votes.
So what makes Gujarat so crucial for the BJP and the PM?
The 'Gujarat Model' is crumbling?
If Modi loses Gujarat, it will mean the crumbling of his Gujarat model narrative, on the basis of which he fought and won the 2014 General Elections. Modi got his massive mandate on the promise of replicating the Gujarat model of development on a national scale. But if the model turns out to be a failure in his home state and people vote out the BJP government, it will be a massive political and personal defeat for the PM.
Gujarat’s economic development under his chief ministership is a key ingredient of the Modi charisma. The model’s failure will be a debilitating blow to his “vikas purush” image, which the PM can ill-afford.
Effect on other states
A loss in Gujarat for the BJP will directly impact its chances in other states due for polls. The BJP governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana and Chhattisgarh all have the Modi wave to thank for coming to power. A defeat in Gujarat will mean the end of that wave, affecting the states’ political scales and strengthening the opposition parties.
A weakened prime minister and a punctured development narrative will be major handicaps for the BJP when it seeks re-election in all these states.
A weak performance in state polls will then impact the party’s chances in the Lok Sabha elections.
The economy
The prime minister has already faced flak for some of his economic policies. People are suffering at the ground level, traders are upset, and the Opposition has consistently targeted the government over these.
The BJP had managed to showcase its landslide win in Uttar Pradesh after demonetisation as people’s endorsement of the exercise. A loss in Gujarat will have the exact opposite effect. The results will be read as voters’ dissatisfaction with note ban and GST, both moves the PM has taken ownership for.
A defeat in Gujarat will not only give more ammunition to those criticising Modi’s economic policies, it will discourage the government from making such bold moves in the future. Modi will be forced to take recourse to populist decisions.
Rumblings within BJP
So far, apart from the Delhi and Bihar drubbings, the BJP has been invincible electorally. The impressive performances have meant that except for one or two faces, the party has unanimously toed the Modi-Amit Shah line.
But a loss in Gujarat might sully the halo around the golden duo. The party has a chunk of dissatisfied MPs and MLAs who occasionally talk of being ignored by the leadership.
These voices might be strengthened after an electoral loss in Gujarat. So far, Amit Shah has enjoyed an unquestioned run as party president. A defeat can mean more challenges from the RSS and other BJP leaders, and dent the authority that Modi and Shah currently hold.
The 2019 mandate
The biggest shadow of a Gujarat defeat will fall, of course, on the 2019 General Elections. Without the promise of the Gujarat development model, Modi’s image will be harder to sell. In the states where the BJP is already on a sticky wicket, a punctured Gujarat model may push it below the majority mark.
A weaker BJP will find it more difficult to gather allies. Even if the NDA does manage to meet the magic mark, Modi may no longer be the unanimous choice for prime minister.
Of course, these scenarios will only come to pass if the BJP loses Gujarat. December 18 – result day – will tell us where the party and the PM stand.
(Translated from Hindi by Yashee.)