Gujarat Assembly elections: BJP should be afraid of Congress
In February this year, Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani flagged off the Adivasi Vikas Gaurav Yatra, a political march to promote development and Adivasi pride in the tribal belts of the state. Anticipating erosion in the Patidar vote base, which has traditionally supported the party, BJP is going all out to rope in scheduled tribes. With the scheduled tribes accounting for 15 per cent vote share, they could determine results on 27 seats. In the 2012 elections, 16 of these 27 seats went to the Congress.
Since the late 1990s, RSS-affiliated Hindutva groups have made systematic efforts to woo the tribal communities and have ensured a steady rise in the votes polled for BJP. Efforts have been increased in these areas since 2016, with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, addressing a meeting of Swayamsevaks in Vansda in Navsari district, in December 2016. Given the political uncertainties, accentuated by farmer protests, Patidar agitations and flogging of Dalits in Una, gaining a hold in tribal seats has become important for the party.
The BJP knows the Patel community's anger is building up against it and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, through his Saurashtra visit, is threatening to convert their anger into votes for his party. In this backdrop, the BJP is in no doubt that timely overtures to other caste groups, could reverse the possible losses.
The consolidation of scheduled tribes' could come as a relief, but the path may not be that simple. Congress's possible alliance with JD(U) faction, led by Chotabhai Vasava in four tribal seats where the JD(U) faction enjoys considerable presence and Vasava's influence in other ST seats, could deeply hurt BJP's outreach.
The political 'Patel' dilemma
Not just BJP, the Congress too faces the same Patel dilemma. Probably both parties know the sour side of reservation politics. If Hardik Patel, led the Patidar movement in favour of reservations, Alpesh Thakor, was the face of the side opposing it allaying fears that the Patels might be appeased by the government at the cost of OBCs. Both parties know, gaining support of one, might result in loss of the other.
And while, Hardik Patel has signalled he will support anybody but BJP (which translates into Congress), the Alpesh Thakor-led faction has remained non-committal and thus added to the chaos and anxiety in the political arena of Gujarat.
And while Hardik Patel has sent strong cues with his speeches and his latest tweet, where he welcomed Rahul Gandhi, on his Saurashtra visit, the Congress has so far remained silent. Any strong statement in favour of Patidars demand might result in a backlash by other communities and looking at the way, Congress has organised itself, for these elections, it would be too naïve of them to do so.
The OBC dilemma also prevails. Unlike Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, doesn't represent the interest of the community. He has been politically smart so far in getting the support of both the Congress and the BJP for his core plank - the anti-liquor agenda - that threw him up as a powerful OBC leader. Getting him in its fold, might result in splitting the OBC votes, but as the OBC voting pattern goes, they have been voting for their community at a hyper-local level, irrespective of the party. So confusion prevails, if Thakor, could sway elections. Both the parties are keeping their cards close to their chest.
A twist in the KHAM politics
Congress' flirtation with the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) formula for electoral gains, had led to the isolation of Patidars and BJP didn't waste much time to turn this swelling anger of the community into electoral gains.
This time around, the Congress seems to be back with its tried and tested formula, however, trying to make it more inclusive. Rahul Gandhi, starting his campaign with Saurashtra, which is a strong base of Patels and the groundnut bowl of the country, trying to capitalise on farmer distress, has further added to BJP's insecurity. Just a day before his visit, the Gujarat government announced that it would procure groundnut at Rs 900 per 20 kg after Diwali against the prevailing market price of Rs 600 to Rs 650 per 20 kg.
But before they could promulgate it, Gandhi made it a point in his speeches and in the arid lands of Saurashtra, such news travel far. His alacrity in tapping into local issues, has made it clear that he will be credited for changing the narrative by raising his voice against low groundnut prices and has assured that Congress's electoral hopes. The development has assured the Congress can ride high on farmer woes.
The Gujarat development model of Narendra Modi supported big industries, but failed to meet the aspirations of agrarian communities such as the Patidars. The Congress pins its hopes on this distress and if civic elections are anything to go by, Congress has benefitted from this disenchantment. Just a year-and-a-half after BJP made a clean sweep in Gujarat during the 2014 general elections, the Congress won 24 district panchayats to BJP's six. Though BJP managed to retain power over six municipal corporations, its victory margins came down substantially.
The D-M factor
Anandiben Patel's resignation came just a day after a large protest by Dalits in Ahmedabad. The protests also brought into focus the hesitation of the BJP's governments at the Centre and the state in distancing themselves unambiguously from instances of cow vigilantism.
It drew flak from all opposition parties, with BSP chief Mayawati leading the charge in Parliament. Muslims joined these protests, making it a one-of-its-kind spectacle, where Muslims and Dalits came together. The D-M factor has been a default option for Congress, but with these protests it showed a certain convergence. Together D-M account for 17 per cent votes in the state. While 10 seats are reserved for scheduled castes, Muslims could impact results in 19 seats. The BJP won a majority of these seats in 2012. Electoral analysis from CCDS shows that about 20-25 per cent of this chunk of votes has been going to the BJP. Any shift in this vote share, is by default Congress' gain.
Congress hopes that adding D-M anger with Patel disenfranchisement could prove out to be the proverbial last straw that breaks the camel's back.
Vaghela's gamble and AAP's ramble
Seen mostly as an architect of a plan to throw Congress into complete disarray rebel ShankarSingh Vaghela enjoys significant influence in at least a dozen constituencies in north Gujarat and could dent Congress' attempts in consolidating support in the region. Vaghela could take away Rajput votes from the Congress and help BJP.
On the other hand, AAP's foray into Gujarat politics will be interesting to watch. Given the low organisational depth, resources and time for outreach, it can be assumed that AAP's ramble will mostly be limited to urban voters. And given the style of "one-to-one" campaigning, AAP follows, it could attract a chunk of urban youth. Remember, even in Goa, where AAP didn't win a single seat and got less than 6 per cent votes, it resulted in a loss of 3-4 seats for the Congress. However, I would be surprised if AAP gets anything more than 1-2 per cent in Gujarat. But in these shifting sands, even 1 per cent counts.
With only two months left for the elections, Gujarat's electoral picture is anything but settled. This is a huge change in Gujarat politics over the last two decades, where BJP had been setting the narrative and riding on it, in every electoral battle. BJP insiders too admit that the degree of anti-incumbency against several sitting legislators is too serious to be overlooked.
Gujarat politics has been marked with the Congress either caught napping or deserting its instincts for realpolitik, or worse, abandoning the battlefield. It has always failed to understand how BJP moves. Fate seems to have turned to Congress' side this time. How resolute they would prove in taking it to a conclusive end is still to be seen.