How Obama's coming to India to score his legacy

USA and China together account for about half of all greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere, so when both countries jointly announced a plan to cut emissions late last year - the world had reason to celebrate. Many argue that the US’ commitment to reducing emissions by 26 per cent to 28 per cent below its 2005 levels by the year 2025, and China’s to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels by 2030, don’t go nearly as far enough as they should. 

Others point out that the secondary provisions of the plan such as the establishment of the US-China Climate Change Working Group and the US-China Clean Energy Research Center are clearly positive developments. Everyone agrees that some important progress has been made.

It is interesting to note that the deal with China is one of many actions that US President Obama has taken to combat climate change such as his drive to use existing legislation on pollution to limit GHG emissions internally. More interestingly, many of these actions were launched just before or, as in the case the of US-China statement, right after the US Congressional election in which the Democrats received a sound drubbing. This has led many to conjecture that Obama’s activism on climate change results from his party’s inability to push through other major pieces of legislation that could ensure a presidential legacy.  In light of an outright failure of an attempt to usher in laws requiring checks for those wanting to buy guns and legal challenges to key provisions of "Obama Care" on the horizon, it seems that that climate change is a key contender for becoming the issue that defines Obama’s presidency.

Even as these whispers become louder, let’s not forget that hurdles abound. PM Narendra Modi and his environment minister, Mr Prakash Javadekar have made it abundantly clear that their primary focus is facilitating economic growth. Presidents are usually remembered not for the totality of their term in office but for particular actions that end up overshadowing others. Lyndon Johnson had the Great Society, Reagan had his renewed thrust on the neo-liberal economic agenda, George Bush had the War on Terror and, Clinton had, er,  Monica Lewinky. Obama’s search for a legacy has included an attempt to neutralise Iran permanently, make the Affordable Care Act a pillar of the American social security system and fundamentally alter the course of the American offensive on terror groups. While he has had some success with all these efforts, none has emerged as the crowning achievement that will be synonymous with his stint as the man-in-charge. This is why, the rumour mills in think tanks and research institutes are abuzz with whispers that the real reason for Obama’s uncharacteristic second visit to India (the first for any sitting US President) is to get the world’s third largest emitter of climate change-inducing gases on board a plan to combat climate change. 

Modi’s recent censure of environmental organisations, many of whom are also key factors in the climate change arena, does not bode well for any landmark national action on the issue. Finally, climate negotiations between our country and the West have traditionally been marred by our entrenched and I would say, justified position that we are being made to provide a solution to a problem that Western countries created.  After all, an Indian emits a tiny fraction of the greenhouse gas emissions that an average American is responsible for. Overcoming these hurdles and getting India to agree to a plan similar to China’s will then allow the president to pressure the global community into signing up to an international agreement to combat climate change. Let’s not forget that in December this year countries across the world meet in Paris to arrive at an enduring solution to the climate change problem at the "Conference of Parties" (as these international climate change conferences convened by the UN are called).

This conference comes exactly a year before Obama demits office - and extends him a last resort for being remembered not only as the first "black president" but also as the "green one".