Win or lose Bihar, Modi story is almost over

The Hindu Hriday Samrat facet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not secure the mandate last year. Though it was instrumental in converting what may have been a wafer thin verdict into the surge that it eventually was, the vote for him was because of the belief that he had metamorphosed into Vikas Purush and he would actually transform Indian economy. All emotive words he uttered since 2002 - Gaurav or pride, Asmita or identity no longer denoted polarising hues but promised Indians that they would be able to stride in the assembly of nations with their head held high.

The belief in the country was echoed by foreign experts too and whose endorsement was definitively needed if India had to recover from rigor mortis that gripped the Indian system. The ratings agency, Moody's stated in January 2014 that Modi, if he was elected would "offer a more business-friendly policy that will further support confidence and investment". The assessment further declared that Modi faced the challenge of "attracting non-Hindu votes" and he could have "difficulty forming a minority government with small parties." But, Moody's asserted, "his record as chief minister of Gujarat suggested he could overcome these obstacles."

In the event, the minority vote was not required as a polarising campaign in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar took the party to unexpected heights. Because of the vital difference that the support base of Hindu Hriday Samrat made to the verdict, its aspirations could not be completely ignored. Consequently, concessions were made to this section: Yogi Adityanath was made coordinator of the party's campaign for by polls; the love jihad and ghar wapsi campaigns were frowned upon till fairly late and that after much outcry. Yet cause remained for American President to remind Modi about his constitutional obligations!

The Bihar campaign was the test case: an election was being held in a state that had witnessed serial bomb blasts in Modi's rally in October 2013, much after his anointment as the party's prime ministerial nominee. Would the campaign be conducted on communal lines or would it remain a sanitised one?

Regardless of the Bihar verdict, the Modi story, as it was anticipated, is facing a danger of nearing its end. Win or lose, the square in which Modi has boxed himself into, will have the so-called fringe forces as his fellow dwellers. The logic behind this is simple - a victory in Bihar will be greatly due to the "background noise" that has been created all over the country by both supporters and detractors. At this stage, Modi cannot jettison them. The issue of alleged beef (actually buffalo) consumption, the macabre outrage in Dadri, the silence of the ruling establishment and in response to this voices of sanity lead repeatedly by the President, Pranab Mukherjee and joined by numerous wise men and women has created an unprecedented divide between the ruling establishment and its critics.

Unfortunately, while the ranks of the critics has swelled and been bolstered by several people who were barely a year and half back endorsing Modi's candidature. Even Moody's has now declared that Modi may lose "international credibility" if he does not check the rising graph of intolerance. The problem Modi faces is that he stands to lose domestically if he takes a tough stand against the practitioners of hate and prejudice. As a practical political leader Modi is aware that in a democracy, winning elections is all that counts. If a verdict in his favour cannot be secured by the "good path" there will be no qualms to opt for the "bad path" and then sticking to a winning formula.

In the event of a defeat in Bihar, as anyone does when they fall on bad times, Modi will stick to the familiar terrain and play to his strength. Having honed his skills in the RSS as a young political activist, Modi is most comfortable with the basics of political Hindutva. Because the basis of defining Indian nationhood is cultural nationalism and not territorial nationalism where only those who consider this land as punyabhoomi and pitribhoomi (Holy Land and Fatherland) are considered Indians, this leaves Muslims, Christians and Zoroastrians in a piquant situation because of their religious belief.

Win or lose Bihar, Modi will lean towards the cultural right here onwards and less towards the economic right. Major reforms that require legislative clearance will not be possible and the government and BJP will be depending more on the executive route for governance and on the shouting route for social discourse. Unless Modi effects a major reversal and looks to redeem his international credibility, rational dialogue is under threat and the Modi story is almost over.