Five ways Paris attacks may hurt Europe

The Paris terror attacks have the potential of impacting the European Union in a big way and the most immediate fallout will be on the ongoing mass migration from the Middle East to Europe.

Here are five ways in which the Paris attacks are going to change Europe in particular and the world in general.

1. Europe’s migration crisis

It is inconceivable to think that the ongoing migration will continue to be business as usual from now on and Germany, which has taken the lead on the migration crisis over humanitarian grounds, will be allowed by fellow EU states to continue with its humane policies because of security reasons. It is a matter of investigation where the Paris attackers came from and whether some of them entered Europe in the guise of hapless migrants. If the migrant connection is established then one can presume that the fate of prospective migrants is sealed, perhaps for ever. This scenario is very much on the cards.

2. Focus back on Europe, the continent in a churn

The West-led international community’s focus will be back on Europe. The United States may be forced to re-jig its strategic priorities and actions and make the security of Europe as its top priority, if not the highest priority which currently happens to be China-centric and the South China Sea related issues.

3. Churning within the EU

This is inevitable but it is rather complicated. France may, after all, not emulate the UK in having a national referendum on the question whether it should remain a part of the EU. UK is going to have a national referendum on the issue in two years. The reason is the Germany factor. One of the covert strategic reasons of forming EU was to prevent Germany from becoming a super power of Europe. When Germany remains within the collective architecture of EU, fears of the rise of Germany akin to the pre World War II remain checked. In any case, France and Germany, the latter Europe’s number one economy, are the biggest beneficiaries of the EU experiment. EU is known best for two things it has brought forth: free trade and free movement. While the former won’t come under stress because of the Paris attacks, the latter definitely will.

4. America’s greater involvement in Europe 

In a way, it is an extension of point number 2. The US shadows over Europe will lengthen further, this time more on the security, counter-terrorism and intelligence side.Ukraine crisis had done so on political and military sides.

5. War on terror 2.0 with focus shifting on ISIS

This is inevitably the biggest and most crucial fallout of the Paris attacks. However, it will have to be seen if the US, just one year away from its presidential elections, will throw its entire might in the ongoing war against IS which has been going on in fits and starts. Had such an attack taken place on the American soil one could have taken such a scenario for granted. But now whether the world is going to see “War Against Terror 2.0” still remains in the realm of possibilities. This is despite the fact that French President Francois Hollande has dubbed the Paris attacks as “an act of war” and US President Barack Obama too has come up with a strong reaction.