Will Israel vote for ultra-nationalist rhetoric of Netanyahu?
Wherever they are held in the world, no two elections are the same. And at another level, no two elections are different. Benjamin Netanyahu faces the test of his personality, policy and his political assessment on Tuesday when Israel goes for elections.
Both on the domestic and external affairs front, the 65-years-old Netanyahu finds himself facing voter fatigue visible on the faces of audience in his public meetings. His PR debacle started with his accepting an invitation from Congressional Republicans to address the House of Representatives, despite being advised by the White House not to do so. In the address, Netanyahu lashed out against Obama's Iran policy. His managers later used the speech and the applause by lawmakers in the Likud Party's campaign. Iran is not an issue which can bring Netanyahu any exclusive brownie points as cutting across party lines, the political narrative is the same on the issue. Not many Israelis support Netanyahu's strategy of drawing clear battle lines with President Obama and using the victim card for electoral purposes.
The elections which were scheduled to be held two years later were necessitated due to collapse of the coalition led by Netanyahu. There were sharp fissures in the coalition over budgetary allocation to defence and a proposed law meant to declare Israel as a Jewish state. Netanyahu took the ally trouble to a flashpoint by dismissing dissenting ministers - justice minister Tzipi Livni of the HaTnua Movement and finance minister Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party. Other orthodox parties did not come to the rescue of Netanyahu as they were uncomfortable with his leadership style - a charisma which does not deliver.
The land-for-peace formula of Netanyahu's moderate coalition partners was not acceptable to him as the restlessness with his right-wing politics became increasingly loud. Amidst pressing issues like cost of living, housing loans etc, Netanyahu has persistently driven the campaign on the issue of security, taking a harsh stand against the two-nation principle - with a view to consolidating the right-wing vote.
Benjamin Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving prime minister since David Ben-Gurion. His mixed legacy includes keeping the country's economy afloat amidst the economic gloom of Europe and keeping Israel secure amidst turmoil all around in the neighbourhood. Both the centrist and the right-wing vote have several claimants with the near certain likelihood of votes getting diluted and the final outcome will have to be a coalition of like-minded forces. Opinion polls are united in their prediction of a weakening support base for Netanyahu's Likud Party as compared to the Centre-left Zionist Union. When voters wanted to hear him speak about their day to day concerns of rising prices, he spoke in his characteristic oratorical skills about the ISIS, threat of a nuclear Iran and settlements. From Scandinavia to America, a beleaguered Netanyahu has blamed many foreign "agents" for sabotaging his election. He has targeted a group called V15 - linked to a US organisation called One Voice which supports the two-state formula and is funded by the state department. The V15 is campaigning extensively against Netanyahu.
If the outcome of the election is too close, the role of the president will become crucial. President Reuven Rivlin belongs to the Likud but like many senior leaders of the party, is not particularly fond of Netanyahu. In fact, he is considered to be Netanyahu's staunch rival. The latter had tried his best to stop Rivlin from becoming the president. In November last year, the president opposed the crucial "Jewish State" Bill which was being pushed by Netanyahu and had faced tremendous opposition within Israel and outside too.
Tuesday's vote will decide whether the country chooses the charisma and ultra-nationalist rhetoric of Netanyahu or the basic issues of food prices and housing raised by the Zionist Union. The fate of a Palestinian state depends on the outcome too.