Political fallouts of Jayalalithaa’s acquittal
AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa would obviously be feeling on top of the world after her acquittal on Monday, May 11, by the Karnataka High Court in the 18-year-old disproportionate assets case. However, some may feel that the other person also cheering the judgement would be Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who called up the former Tamil Nadu CM and greeted her after the stunning verdict. While it may be argued that this bonhomie between the two, coupled with the favourable verdict, will help the BJP, the reality on the ground may be entirely different. Either, Monday’s development may not have any impact on the national-level politics or the BJP might stand to lose with Jayalalithaa emerging stronger.
1. Modi and Jayalalithaa are known to enjoy a good rapport. As Gujarat chief minister, Modi had attended Jayalalithaa’s swearing-in as Tamil Nadu CM in Chennai in 2011. The next year, Jayalalithaa returned the goodwill gesture by attending Modi’s swearing-in as Gujarat CM.
2. The BJP-led NDA is struggling hard for numbers in Rajya Sabha for the passage of crucial legislations like the Goods and Sales Tax (GST) Bill and the Land Acquisition (Amendment) Bill. The cordial relations between the two leaders and a stronger Jayalalithaa may be considered a shot in the arm for the NDA, which is counting each and every vote for the passage of its flagged Bills in the upper house.
3. However, contrary to this popular view, the BJP does not have much to cheer about in the wake of a favourable judgment for Jayalalithaa. Firstly, the BJP was trying hard to make inroads in Tamil Nadu. But after her acquittal, Jayalalithaa is all set to earn sympathy of the people. The development has put paid to any chances that the BJP had to wean away Jayalalithaa’s supporters or fence sitters in the southern state, which goes to polls in 2016.
4. As far as the repercussions of the development at the Centre are concerned, a weakened Jayalalithaa would have been more advantageous for the BJP. Had the Karnataka High Court upheld the verdict of the special court pronounced in September 2014, Jayalalithaa would have remained more dependent on the Centre for getting the union government’s attention in terms of grants and aids in return for support to the NDA, particularly in Rajya Sabha.
5. The odds are weighed heavily against the NDA in the 245-member Rajya Sabha at the moment. The NDA has just 59 members – 47 of the BJP, six of the Telugu Desam Party and three each of Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal – in the upper house. It may perhaps count on the support of a few other parties, like the PDP, with which it is running a coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir, having seven members and Biju Janata Dal, which has two members. With 11 members, AIADMK can chip in support to the NDA.
6. Even if NDA gets AIADMK’s support, the NDA will be far short of enough strength to get crucial Bills passed as the UPA, Left and other parties have whopping 150-odd seats in the Rajya Sabha. While the Congress has 68 members, Samajwadi Party has 15, Trinamool Congress 12, Bahujan Samaj Party and JDU 10 each, Left 10, Nationalist Congress Party 6, DMK 4 and the remaining nominated or independent members.
7. Besides, it would also have been easier for the BJP to penetrate in Tamil Nadu at the cost of AIADMK if Jayalalithaa’s conviction would have been upheld by the High Court. But now, it seems highly unlikely.
8. While Jayalalithaa’s stand vis-à-vis the NDA may be clear in the coming days when the crucial Bills come up for voting in Rajya Sabha, it is clear that the biggest loser with Monday’s clean chit to Jayalalithaa will most likely be the DMK. Karunanidhi’s party is already struggling with 2G cases pending in the Supreme Court against Kanimozhi and A Raja. As a result, Jayalalithaa will hope to ride back to power on a sympathy wave in the next assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.