J&K polls: Why BJP and PDP will say yes to an unlikely marriage

The people of Jammu & Kashmir have spoken. It is a hung house. And the key takeaways are as follows:

1) The BJP is the party with the maximum number of votes in the state. It is also the party with the highest gain in the seats over its previous tally.

2) Yet, at 25, the BJP is three seats short of the PDP, the party with the highest number of seats.

3) The NC has been routed to the third place with its incumbent CM having lost from one of the two seats he contested from.

4) The Congress has been decimated to the fourth place, which is the last as they were only four parties contesting in the state.

Now, how is it that the party with the highest number of votes ends up second in the number of seats? This is because J&K decided, in 2008, to avoid going through the delimitation exercise that would have rationalised the constituencies of the state according to the population and the number of voters. So, by implication, the Jammu region continues to have, on an average, more than 25 per cent more voters in each of its constituencies than the constituencies in the Valley.

If the delimitation exercise had been allowed, as it happened in the rest of India, the Valley with its current 46 seats would have lost at least ten seats to the Jammu region, which has currently only 37 seats. This would have shifted the balance of power in favour of Jammu. Incidentally, J&K has also kept the tenure of its Assembly at six years while in the rest of the country it is only five years.

Also, J&K can have its way on most things because it has Article 370 to do as it pleases, as Parliament has no jurisdiction over it.

The PDP, with its 28 seats, leads the pack. It has been patiently waiting for its turn to rule the state. And it would have happily sought the Congress, the eternal spare wheel in the J&K politics, for whichever party has a flat tyre in their ride to the majority in the Assembly. The Congress has been in power for the past 12 years, first with the PDP and then with the NC. But this spare wheel itself has emerged nicely flat in these elections.

The NC and the PDP do not mix much just like how the Congress and the BJP do not mix. This is notwithstanding a tongue-in-cheek scenario in which Omar Abdullah was mulling about a hypothetical call from the Muftis. But, all said and done, the difference between the NC and the PDP is not even skin-deep. Should the BJP ever emerge within a striking distance of making a solo bid for power in the state, rest assured, these differences will be cast aside. But, for now, the two are staying apart.

So, that leaves us with the PDP and the BJP combo. It will happen. Not only because the numbers dictate it, which they do. But that the BJP and the PDP have gone through a torrid courtship over a long period. It may not have been much of a public demonstration of affection as is a common sight at the steps of the Delhi Metro stations, but not very clandestine either.

After all, it is the PDP's idea to allow open borders at the LoC and Pakistani currency to coexist along with Indian currency in the J&K, besides its call for "self-rule".

What seduced the BJP, the most credible champion of the national interest in the national politicalscape, to the almost separatist PDP?

Well, the answer to that is the BJP wants to become a “normal” party. A “normal” party is supposed to exist not just to espouse causes and peddle an ideology but to mount a credible bid for power. And to be part of the power structure, it must do what it takes. But then, why is the PDP desperate to jump into bed with the BJP? Well, a simple answer is that the PDP has always been a “normal” party. 

So, how will the fiercely patriotic constituency of the BJP react to this marriage? With a lot of hope and a little prayer, I guess. Hope, that the BJP, sharing power in the J&K, would sanitise the politics of this troubled state and retrieve it from the depths that a competitive separatist politics of the PDP/NC and criminal acquiescence of the Congress has plunged it into. And prayer, that the party will not make concessions on the core issues that have always defined the BJP as a distinct brand in the national political marketplace. The commoditisation of the BJP will always be a huge price to pay for any kind of office, be that on that hill called Raisina or in that Valley beyond the Pir Panjal.